Member Info for happysparrow

Hi, Tier. Not back in yet, just watching - but unlikely to have 70% of my holdings here again. Thoughts on the $500m payment? - I was concerned that some misleading rampers had arrived here, and though good news (on which some were buying), it needed to be seen in perspective of the overall situation with regard to government non-payment. Personally, I cannot invest here until we know the gas payment situation, and are updated monthly on it (like GENL and GKP on KRI payments). Too, management has to improve (Note: I took a large chunk in JSE - light years away in communication and professionalism from SAVP - ask Mount Teide! -, quarterly reports, quick decisive action to unfolding events, honest responses to questions, and, relevant to today's thread, the entire board is taking a 25% reduction in salary despite fantastic results, and the promised dividend maintained - that's how to look after shareholders ). But, if at SAVP we are getting paid IN FULL and ON TIME for our gas, then opportunity here beckons. Let's hope they don't try and fudge this issue in their annual report and AGM! Much honesty needed here.
Good Luck.

Regards: https://economicconfidential.com/2020/04/fg-offsets-gencos-gas-n200bn/
'When asked what government was doing to resolve the non-payment for gas by power generation companies, Kyari said, “Actually the Federal Government has made payments of over N200bn for power in the last two to three days.
“This will go a long way in making sure that those payment issues are resolved. And we are engaging as a government and as a team to make sure that those payment issues are fully settled.”
200 billion Niara is about $500m.

Note these articles for some perspective:
https://www.thecable.ng/verge-collapse-13-gencos-drag-fg-court
https://www.thecable.ng/exclusive-another-1-2bn-liability-dangles-over-nigeria-as-azura-power-deal-wobbles

Hi, earache - yes, scratching around today whilst waiting for all my oil shares to rise (and when will that be?).
My guess why Turkish Petroleum might want to be involved in this project is:
a) they are very familiar with this asset (past involvement, as with Amity);
b) they want this asset developed asap, so don't want to wait on VLU finding a partner (and won't have to then approve that partner);
c) money from direct ownership/income of this asset should be a higher percentage than tax take;
d) similarly, helps their balance of payments by domestic production, rather than relying on imported energy;
e) in theory, helps local job prospects, and is a way to strengthen economy in these troubled times - thus Wealth Fund involvement.

But who knows?
Out to enjoy the sunshine, now (ignore the Plod).
GLA.

And on Turkish Wealth Fund (100% of shares of Turkish Petroleum):
http://turkiyevarlikfonu.com.tr/EN/Portfoy/5

More background information on Amity example:
https://balkaneu.com/turkey-goes-to-town-on-energy-in-east-thrace/

And another possibility?
http://www.socar.com.tr/en/about-us/socar-global
http://www.socar.com.tr/en/about-us/socar-globalhttp://www.socar.com.tr/en/about-us/socar-turkey

Perhaps we could look closer to home?
https://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/new-help-for-virus-hit-firms-from-turkey-wealth-fund-153951

Partnership with Turkish Petroleum?
http://www.tp.gov.tr/eng/?tp=m&id=16

for example: TP – AMITY OIL agreement. In the context of Joint Operation Agreement between TP and Amity oil for Thrace Basin; condensate and natural gas production from D.Yenibag-1, Göçerler, Adatepe, D. Adatepe, Reisdere, Eskitasli, Dikilitas, Pasaköy, Kumdere, Yenibag and Pelit fields have continued and exploration studies in exploration licenses.

I like today's move eminently sensible.
Careful of those MM's - they would have you believe otherwise - advertised spread 32-33p, but actual price (dummy buys/sells) is 34.5 - 35.94p.
a post on advfn (croasfeldeltic) sums it up:
'I can see another acquisition- $72 net cash, capex very low - and bank loans in place if needed - paying divi would suggest any acquisition would not need a placing'

More:
'...Turkey is a country with a shortage of energy resources, which makes it heavily dependent on foreign energy resources. However, due to its advantageous geographical position, Turkey promotes the diversification of energy sources. It is an important energy strategic goal for Turkey to promote the diversification of energy sources and build energy hubs. The CPIT corridor can open up Turkey’s Southeast Asian and South Asian markets, diversify its energy export markets, strengthen its strategic position in energy, expand its influence in the Middle East, and even make it a global energy hub; at the same time, the CPIT is conducive to safeguarding its own energy supply, and obtaining oil from the Middle East or Turkmenistan through Iran. Thus, Turkey can realize its diversification of energy source and transportation corridor....'

Hi, Earache - all okay, thanks, until I heard 3 more weeks of the pub not open!

Thought this might be of interest - adds to your analysis:
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352484719300034
'...3.2. Energy corridor planning of CPIT
The CPIT energy corridor is an energy strategy corridor connecting China, Pakistan, Iran, and Turkey (Fig. 5). It is a strategy proposed in response to China’s “the Belt and Road” initiative (BRI). The transportation forms of this energy strategic corridor can be diversified, consisting of highway, railway, and pipeline and water transportation. Promoting energy infrastructure connectivity is an important part of BRI construction. Energy cooperation can not only meet the demand of China’s stable economic development, but also promote the BRI strategic development pattern, develop interconnected transmission lines and transportation systems, and drive regional economic and financial cooperation along the belt and road....'

Also article on Turkstream: https://www.aa.com.tr/en/energy/natural-gas/turkstream-transfers-132-bcm-of-gas-to-europe-in-1q20/28869

The completion of the TAP pipeline could bring further interest in VLU.
From VLU website: 'The Company’s natural gas infrastructure is currently underutilised and has the capacity to handle approximately 50 MMcf/d. This is sufficient capacity to allow for growth in the Company’s conventional production and for the appraisal of the BCGA play and any potential early development project. If the BCGA project is successful then the Company will require access to infrastructure beyond the capacity of its existing grid. There are multiple options for increased capacity with proximal pipeline infrastructure capable of several Bcf/day. These include tie-in to the regional gas distributor GAZDAZ, an existing export line to Greece, the major line from Russia to Istanbul, and the TANAP line which is currently complete to the Greek border and is expected to connect to Italy via the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) in 2020.'
As of Feb 2020 the Tap project was 93.5% completed. https://www.tap-ag.com/pipeline-construction/project-progress
There is an article on Upstream Online here: https://www.upstreamonline.com/production/tap-keeps-first-gas-target-in-sight-despite-covid-19-challenges/2-1-787589

'...Recently, in light of the global COVID-19 pandemic, economic activity in Turkey has begun to slow down, resulting in reduced gas demand from some of Valeura’s light industrial customers. This reduced demand has been managed primarily by curtailing third-party gas throughput, and imposing only minimal reductions to Valeura’s equity gas production. Valeura’s recent gas production has averaged approximately 75-80% of the Q1 2020 average rate....'

$2.8m (Q1 2020) x 75% = $2.1m revenue for Q2 2020, if same reduced rate averaged throughout April- June.

Turkey Coronavirus rate of increase seems to be in decline?
Active cases: 9/4/20 39232, 10/4 43600 (+4368), 11/4 48101 (+4501), 12/4 52312 (+4211), 13/4 55796 (+ 3484)
Expect end of lockdown there mid-May?

Thank you for being honest about your motives, Lawrence.
I don't intend to be involved with your differences with Earache, but on this board he seems the best-researched poster by far, which is something to take note of, and I would listen to his opinion with care. [I, too, had to ask some very hard questions at SAVP recently - and let's say it doesn't win you friends (but it would have doubled your bank balance!).]
By chance you have alighted here on a very solid share with considerable potential, the main negative being that the management are greedy (their recent inappropriate option award). It would be to your advantage to listen carefully to what Earache has to say here - and with additional research, yo may find an investment here does you very well over a 2 year period.
Good luck.

Prescient note yesterday, Earache. Thanks.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-administration-discussed-shutting-oil-production-in-gulf-of-mexico-11585923887

Useful site:
@Summer_Said

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-03/russian-producers-ready-for-oil-cuts-in-bid-to-stop-price-rout .

https://uk.investing.com/news/commodities-news/saudis-start-to-unleash-oil-wave-despite-us-political-pressure-2085827
'... The next sign of whether the oil price war continues will come around April 5, when state-owned Saudi Aramco (SE:2222) is expected to release its monthly official selling prices for May. Oil refiners and traders believe that Riyadh will have to deepen its discounts to sell all the oil the kingdom wants. If Aramco does indeed deepen the discounts, it will trigger a fresh round of tic-for-tat actions with other oil producing nations, piling further pressure on prices.'

https://facts4eu.org/news/2020_mar_corona_what