Member Info for happysparrow

Thanks, O&W.
So Savp would be worth double Eland's market cap.
Then add on Accugas.
And Niger.

Not long to wait now.

Thanks, Zengas.

And for SAVP:

Upstream (page 22 of presentation):
80 mmboe 2P reserves + 59 mmboe 2C Rersources
2P production of 20,200 boepd
average gas price of $2 per mcf.

Midstream (my recollection of previous posts on here):
investment in infrastructure circa £1 billion.

Anyone want to do the sums - using the Eland valuation to produce an equivalent SAVP valuation?

A better petition site:
https://www.thepetitionsite.com/en-gb/621/108/336/this-belgium-sized-nature-reserve-may-be-destroyed-to-make-room-for-oil-exploration/

Email sent to IR asking that SAVP use whatever influence they have + petition signed.

http://nigerreserve.wesign.it/en

More informative article:

https://news.mongabay.com/2019/08/africas-largest-reserve-may-lose-half-its-area-to-oil-development/

https://www.france24.com/en/20190809-africas-biggest-reserve-under-threat-chinese-oil-deal-activists

https://www.zsl.org/conservation/regions/africa/termit-tin-toumma-niger

Not so good:

https://www.climatechangenews.com/2019/08/07/niger-shrinks-major-biodiversity-reserve-allow-chinese-oil-exploration/

https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Map-of-Nigeria-by-states-1-Akwa-Ibom-2-Anambra-3-Bauchi-4-Gombe-5-Edo-6_fig1_263514008

Perhaps this will help to get the Mashi Refinery built?

This is from Zengas on 7th Sept:
Back in Q1 2018 Savp appointed Sir Stephen O'Brien a former African envoy for David Cameron and ex Tory MP. It was reported in 'Africa Intelligence' that we were using a "discreet" Nigerian lawyer - Muhammadu Dikko Ladan as well as Micheal Watchel head of Clyde and Company (lawyers) Oil and Gas practice.

While i have always beleived in the transaction completing re the Seven Energy assets, it's worth noting some other connections that will imo be extremely advantageous to Savp as i believe it will build out to a circa £2b+ m/cap company.
While Sir Stephen is vice chairman and M Watchel is a NED at Savp, at subsiduary level - M.D Lakan was reported as chairman of Savannah 'Nigeria'.

Katsina state borders Niger.
President Buhari is from Katsina state and a MOU was already agreed between Niger and Nigeria to build a 100-150k bopd refinery at Mashi in Katsina state. This was solely to take Niger Agadem crude. Pres Buhari/Nigeria tried to sway the chinese to supply oil from Agadem but apparently can't because it has signed committment to the Benin government on the coast for most of its oil.
For now the refinery is stalled as a 100-150k bopd refinery needs 36-55 million bls/year. It just needs a sufficient oil supply.
A Nigerian investor Ibrahim Zakari (Blak oil Energy) was in the process of securing $2b worth of funding from international investors for the Katsina refinery.
President Buhari wants the refinery project to go ahead as it will bring something like 2,500 jobs to the Mashi area in Katsina.
Meanwhile Nigers President only recently said, in in a few years they hope to be an OPEC member and producing 500,000 bopd ? Where's it coming from and where's it going to go?
Niger and Nigeria obviously need this mutually beneficial major project or as many as possiblefor Niger to produce those sort of numbers - all good for the likes of Savannah Petroleum.

Back to SAVP -The Savannah Nigeria subsidiary Chairman is lawyer Muhammadu Dikko Ladan and is from a long line of Emirs' in President Buharis home state of Katsina. Muhammadu Dikko stadium in Katsina state is the 5th largest in Nigeria. He was also appointed as an honorary consul by Niger to the UK in 2011. Imo an extremely important figure with significant connections for Savp that we have actually heard little about until i suppose the Seven Energy deal is fully ratified shortly but should prove very positive and helpful for our operations in Niger and turning Savp into a major company.

https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Geological-Map-of-Nigeria-showing-the-Gongola-basin-and-Kolmani-River-1-Well-modified_fig1_305567808
https://africaoilgasreport.com/2019/08/oil-patch-sub-sahara/nnpc-moves-to-test-kolmani-river-2/
" a commercial sized pool of hydrocarbon in Northern Nigeria will change the entire dynamics of politics in Africa's largest economy."

https://www.vanguardngr.com/2019/10/breaking-nnpc-discovers-crude-oil-gas-in-northern-nigeria/
https://www.vanguardngr.com/2019/10/breaking-nnpc-discovers-crude-oil-gas-in-northern-nigeria/

https://thenationonlineng.net/gas-is-key-to-unlocking-nigerias-economic-potential/

This is an interesting post by Grewber on the Lse RBD board which illustrates just how much confidence RBD have in this asset becoming 'outstanding':

If the deal goes through tomorrow I would say we have gained something and lost something.
One of the attractions of Reabold for me was the portfolio diversification. If a drill was a failure , remember Wick?, then it didnt have a great impact on the share price as that prospect was only a relatively small part of the asset base. However, by pushing the bulk of the capital raise to Weston Newton we are effectively going "all in" on one prospect. I know we have Parta and California but whatever way you look at it Weston Newton has to succeed. We have effectively lost the diversification and gained a great return if Weston Newton comes in. We have turned into every other small oil stock - a binary - s*** or bust on one prospect.
Let's hope they know what they are doing.
GLA

Apologies - this is the link for the article (click at bottom for pdf)
https://www.guerillainvesting.co.uk/2019/10/07/reabold-resources-project-wallace/

The NPV of S11.5 per barrel were also of interest.
'It’s glaringly apparent that RBD and their partners believe that West Newton is a major onshore oil/gas discovery that will flow oil & gas and could net well in excess of $1,000,000,000 at $11.50c net back based upon as yet the unpublished CPR and the volume-metrics that will soon be released. '
I had used a figure of $10 per barrel for my calculations.
Using Secret Blueprints estimate of forthcoming CPR for West Newton barrels being 125m; this gave UJO a valuation of 1.4p a share.

This was BMD's opinion on funding:
'UJO are already fully paid up for the EWT and have £2,600,000 cash at hand, they’ll probably sell out after the oil/gas flows. It’s known that Bramhill (CEO UJO) has consistently rebuffed offers of financial backing from several institutions.'

It comes via BMD ( I picked it up on lse RBD site) - I assume it is genuine:
https://www.guerillainvesting.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Project-Wallace_September-2019-1.pdf
also article:
https://www.guerillainvesting.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Project-Wallace_September-2019-1.pdf

mix, avfc, I've been looking at page 17 of the RBD Sept 2019 presentation where there seems to be a breakdown of costs as use of proceeds.
It seems they will be spending £16m - £20m for 50% working interest of West Newton's WNB two well programme.
But, yes, I may have read it incorrectly.

Mixster - looking at the new RBD presentation, if I've read it correctly, they are intending to spend £16m - £20m to drill and test the two WNB wells (March - June 2020) with 50% ownership of the West Newton licence.
On that basis UJO will need to raise £5.5 - £6.8m for 17% of the licence for the WNB 2 well programme.
WN A wells are fully funded. Wressle and Biscathorpe need some futher development funding.
So my expectation is that UJO will raise £8.5m, after the CPR which is due in late Dec / early Jan.
However, if we don't raise before March 2020, then I expect West Newton might be sold?