Member Info for happysparrow

Perhaps I should ask Nurse.

Old joke:
Margaret Thatcher goes to visit a care home to meet the residents, asks an old girl 'Do you know who I am?'
'No' comes the reply, 'but if you ask Nurse, I'm sure she can help you.'

Do you know who I am, 3CB?

Just think, 3CB, you'll go to your grave never knowing! Hee hee.

https://www.businessincameroon.com/finance/0210-10872-eneo-projects-xaf165-bln-of-accumulated-net-earnings-over-2021-2025
Note: 1 XAF = 0.00178557 US$
165 billion XAF = $295m

N2M - Yes, agreed guarantees are very important - but not sure how effective they are. (Somewhat had this discussion some time back since Feb). SAVP did take the first step in having them called upon with their letter reported by The Cable last November. It seems to be a kind of bluff going on? If SAVE do call upon the guarantee they may get paid eventually, but they will lose the goodwill of the Nigerian government and, imo, will then have to exit Nigeria. Basically neither side wants to see the guarantee called upon - but if the Nigerian government can't pay (and if they can't pay, they will lose their credit rating anyway) then they can't pay, regardless of any guarantee.

VOG are in a similar position. Their main offtaker won't pay ($9m?). However, the government/banks are about to provide about $136m to ENEO. VOG has taken a harsher line, taking ENEO to court for the unpaid monies. We wait to see how effective this is. VOG do not have the money to continue with their work programme until paid by ENEO, could go bust. Will the government order ENEO to keep VOG afloat by paying at least $3m so VOG can continue with its work programme; all will they allow VOG to go bust and lose the whole gas infrastructure to their main industrial city? Sounds familiar?

Sorry, Mr B - jumped ship because of SAVE possibly not getting paid (70% of my holdings). Moved my money into TXP and JSE. (might move some profits back here - if the payment issue gets resolved as much as I think necessary).
VOG is a small recovery play; and a bet on some big positive events coming in in the next 6 months - high risk; boom or bust - but, yes, does have similarities with some aspects of SAVE.

'...More importantly, Savannah now has World Bank guarantees covering its gas sales, so getting paid shouldn’t be an issue....'

Has he done any research?

Here's reminding you, 3 CB - there's 31 days in October. Do you not no nuffink :-)

Coivgaz - As I first argued back in April, this company needs a large injection of capital. You put my case well for a merger/takeover. Seems to align well with the interests of New Age/ Blvn for the Etinde project; or a target for SEY. Roy is ex-Kerogen (New Age); YF Finance is heavily invested in both VOG and SEY.

Thanks for responding, NicetoMichu

At a guess, 3CB, you're probably out by a factor of 6.

Thanks, Porschefund.
I'm really struggling to work out what is going on here.
(Not intended as a de-ramp, I really want to know). How close were we in June to getting to the limit of our partial guarantee? Clearly some improvement since June. FG seemed to inject some cash into Calabar recently (?), which seems we got a slice of. How regular will this be? What is it reliant on? How much has this non-payment matter ('late-payment' as Z might put it?) been resolved? Unanswered questions still - I would really appreciate your thoughts - and anyone else's.

Thanks for the concern, 3CB.
I think I made a reasonable assessment of the risks in my post to Kion.
I don't know why you think I've made 5 purchases in total - quite bizarre.
Yes, this slide has been disappointing; but ask me again by the end of October - I think that, at the very least, by then they will have validated my 2 purchases today.

Do not confuse trade receivables with cash collections.
Receivables had gone down from $131m to $106.1m to end of August, a reduction of $24.9m.
Cash collections for July and August were $49.3m.

This is what I am referring to:
Receivables
The Group has trade and other receivables of US$131.0 million (31 December 2019: US$99.8 million). The trade receivables and contract assets of US$82.4 million (31 December 2019: US$50.4 million) represent a net increase of US$32.0 million due from customers in Nigeria under the current gas sales agreements in place, with cash collections during July and August of US$49.3 million. It should be noted that by end of August 2020, the receivables balance had reduced to US$106.1 million following receipt of cash from customers.

Have just seen RNS and had a quick scan.
Have noted Trade Receivables near end of RNS.
Would anyone like to comment?

My view too, Kion. Trusting the management is all important, and I get out as soon as I lose trust (SOU, SDX, IOG, I3E - to name a few which I've summarily dumped). Roy Kelly, however, comes across as a good egg (has slight west-country accent?) and there is a video of him speaking if you flick back through my posts - about May/June? I put in no more than a 10% of my portfolio here - like you say, a punt. But RF68 has taken a much larger position, and has a better knowledge of Roy (who is highly regarded in his industry, I understand).

Quick overview, Kion:
It was a basket-case, with rotten management that have driven it into the ground and left a lot of legacy issues.
New management were appointed in Spring 2020.
The company is at a low point. It is at high risk of going bust if it loses the legacy issues.
However, it is a considerable opportunity if you believe it can be kept afloat and turned around - it's infrastructure is worth tens of millions of dollars alone.
There are some big opportunities pushing the SP up to 6/7p+ on early recovery, and 13p+ on merger imo:
Eneo debt payment; West Med sale; Aksa power station deal. However, my original reason for being here is the possibility of a merger/takeover by New Age or SEY - note my posts at the end of April - Roy Kelly and other are ex-Kerogen; Kerogen is the principal shareholder in New Age.
A lot of research needed - as high risk.
Good luck.

Correction - questions by 22nd, meeting on 29th.
The General Meeting ("the Meeting") of the Company will be held on 29 October 2020 at Kerman & Co LLP, 200 Strand, London WC2R 1DJ at 11.00a.m. to consider the 2019 Annual Report and Accounts.

The Directors are mindful that Shareholders have not been able to have a direct dialogue with management or directors of the Company at Shareholder meetings this year due to the severe but understandable restrictions placed upon us by the Covid-19 pandemic. As a result, we propose to invite questions from Shareholders in advance of the Meeting on the 2019 Annual Accounts. A response to these questions will be published before the Meeting and additional information about this process will be available on our website. All questions should be sent directly to the Company by close of business on 22 October 2020 either via email to compliance@victoriaoilandgas.com or by post to Victoria Oil & Gas Plc, Scott House, Suite 1, The Concourse, Waterloo Station, London, SE1 9LX and include your Shareholder registration number or registered Shareholder details and address.