Member Info for happysparrow

https://www.businessincameroon.com/economy/2309-10841-cameroon-15-local-companies-granted-the-cemac-preferential-tariff-regime
'... The beneficiaries include some big names of the local industry: Dangote Cement Cameroon, Guinness Cameroon, BVS (Boissons, vins et spiritueux), Scimpos, Socaver, Ok Food, etc.....'
Dangote, Guinness, Socaver, OK Foods are all GdC clients.

This was from SEY's recent RNS:
Sterling has actively transitioned the portfolio out of long cycle exploration assets requiring third party funding and
continues to actively search for near to mid-term value creation and transformative growth/monetisation options in
both Africa and the Middle East (although the Board would also consider options further afield for the right project).
A prudent, selective and persistent M&A led effort is directed towards shorter-cycle revenue generating projects
that will deliver in a sustained lower oil price landscape, in progressive jurisdictions.

They seemed to be emphasising an acquisition in Egypt?

Could be, Rift. But still think VOG is a strong contender. Did you see our West Med (siberia) asset has some attention (click on my name and pick up my posts from 20th August onward): '...Based on this Technical Report, the Company has commenced a formal process to divest the Western Medvezhye Field and is in discussions with buyers of the field. Whilst a prospective buyer is conducting due diligence, the Company expects an extended sales process due to the COVID-19 crisis and the volatility of crude prices.'
Also SEY have experience in Cameroon.
Too, YF is big holder of shares here.
And VOG is, to some extent, a distressed production asset with exploration potential.

Back in Feb I had BG holding 3.48% - so increased to 4.15% mid-July, and early september 5%+; and now perhaps just under 6%?
I assume that it was not an error that BG's holding wasn't notified to the market on 2nd September. Whilst undisclosed, this would allow BG to continue to buy without alerting the market. (Too, I think there is some regulation that if a buy order is put in to be fulfilled over a certain period, then disclosure is not necessary until the full order is complete?). Over the years I have become quite sceptical as to how the AIM market operates. Is this unfair comment?

From my notes I had BG as holding 4.13% on July 13th 2020.
Note the threshold was crossed on the 1st September; and issuer notified on the 2nd September.
Since 1st September we have had a large seller; but these have continued to be mopped up.
My guess is that BG has been buying more since 1st September.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/cameroon-seeking-to-build-3-billion-dam-to-export-electricity-1.1495803
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sanaga_River
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edéa
'....The Sanaga River basin “is an important source of life for Cameroon’s flora and fauna,” said Sakah Mathias, the managing director of Sanys Global Consulting, a Yaounde-based consultancy that does sustainability studies. “The construction of five dams along the river is a serious threat,” he said....'

Sic Cacaos and Chococam are GDC clients:
https://www.investiraucameroun.com/agriculture/1709-15217-en-depit-de-l-arrivee-d-un-nouvel-operateur-la-transformation-du-cacao-au-cameroun-chute-de-24-000-tonnes-en-2019-2020
https://www.investiraucameroun.com/agriculture/1509-15203-cacao-la-france-les-usa-sortent-de-la-liste-des-clients-du-cameroun-au-profit-de-la-coree-l-albanie

No objection here, RF68.
But with 3CB and crew?

Also US$1 = 555 CFAF
So 132 billion CFAF = $238m to Eneo (probably October)
$9m = 3.8% of total
Thus, we have a high chance of being paid soon, imo.

Current MCap = £8m
$9m / 1.3 = £6.9m
Thus £14.9m / 257m shares = share price of 5.8p (pretty close to Zac Mir's 6p target).

They are expecting money on 5th October:
'According to the Ecofin Agency, which quotes sources familiar with the matter, Eneo hopes to complete its syndicated loan of CFAF 100 billion by October 5. The preparation process for this transaction is continuing and bankers are awaiting the information note which should normally be available before September 20.'
Thus, I would expect our $9m to be resolved amicably that month - otherwise the Court awaits.

https://www.investiraucameroun.com/finance/1509-15199-taux-d-interet-maturite-profil-de-l-emetteur-les-contours-de-l-emprunt-de-100-milliards-de-fcfa-d-eneo

Early this year the leopards were booted out; hopefully replaced by lions. Let's wait and see whether the New Management are worthy of such accolade.

https://www.investiraucameroun.com/energie/1409-15197-l-electricien-eneo-annonce-des-besoins-d-investissements-de-521-milliards-de-fcfa-pour-les-10-prochaines-annees
'....But, in June 2020, in addition to having become a good payer over the first five months of the year, we learn, the State of Cameroon made a first advance of 45 billion FCFA on its unpaid bills. This allows Eneo to look to the immediate future with much more serenity. A second tranche of up to 32 billion FCFA is also about to be regularized....'

Yes, it's a disgrace that news has leaked yet again - this should have been sorted out last year.

But has anyone considered that 'fundraising' might mean a RBL based on Wressle production? (Note: I have not read through yesterday's posts).

Kalum - I have no spare cash; if I had, would have piled in today. Looking at chart, imo unlikely to go below 55p. People were happy to pay 75p a month ago; I bought a lot around 65p. The reason this is down is we have a big seller; but it seems to be being matched now by buyers. Quality company; therefore you might not buy at the bottom, but I would still regard it as a good investment over a 6 month+ time period, one that should outperform and outsee the 'macro' worries of further Covid-nonsense, imo. Of course, your call (and DYOR).

Solid, creditable performance - very reliable company.

This caught my eye: ' ... Progress on both the Vietnam Nam Du/U Minh and Indonesia Lemang gas developments provide us optionality in pushing forwards with final investment decisions next year, with more detail on this to come as part of 2021 guidance. These decisions will always be balanced by market conditions, as will our approach to inorganic activity, where we see a number of very material opportunities emerging across the region for 2021. ...'

I had expected little progress in Vietnam, but this seems a mistaken view.

Thanks, MT. Always great information.
[And a big thank you, generally. My main positions are TXP and JSE - although not on ADVFN, I follow your information and reasoning closely.]

Does this new method mean that we not only make 20% cost savings, but that offtake is in smaller quantities but more frequent, and thus there is more flexibility in sales price? Anyone have knowledge on this?

Should help.
https://allafrica.com/stories/202008310270.html
http://www.newafricanglobalenergy.com/cameroon/

https://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?depth=1&hl=en&prev=search&pto=aue&rurl=translate.google.co.uk&sl=fr&sp=nmt4&u=https://www.stopblablacam.com/societe/2808-4816-energie-electrique-des-perturbations-annoncees-sur-le-reseau-a-yaounde&usg=ALkJrhhD0hyDOjlXAEjq6XpqeTepsIvzRw
'......The inhabitants of Yaoundé are now used to receiving alerts from Eneo announcing disruptions in the supply of electrical energy.....'

Slowly, the wheels are coming off the bus? Debt, non-payments of suppliers, and lack of investment, will have to be addressed by ENEO / the government soon?

Thanks, Porschefund. Good to have your analysis and thoughts on this.