Member Info for happysparrow

Yes, agreed; we've discussed all this much before. It was the quote from page 6 of the investment thesis that set me off posting again - I couldn't let that go unchallenged; and particularly at a time when a lot of unexplained promotion was going on. The answer is, indeed, to get the company to answer these questions; and I hope they'll be raised at the GM; and I hope all will be resolved regards this issue from the interim statements.

This was the Gencos link:
https://www.ripplesnigeria.com/gencos-resist-planned-reversal-of-power-sector-privatisation-allege-n1tn-debt/
And my comment: "Note at end of article: ' The Gencos claimed that they only collected payment of between 11 and 30 per cent of their invoiced amount on a monthly basis.'
So I guess SAVP is only getting paid 10 to 30% of invoiced amount [of promised £10m per month free cash flow]."

The point is I can't explain what is accounted for, or how it is accounted, easily (Note: they are unaudited preliminary accounts) - particularly the difference about what has been billed and what has actually been received. I have a lot of unanswered questions. I cannot invest until then.
But, yes, very much going round in circles on this board discussion until we receive the interims; (and audited accounts would help too).

Note: VOG, in which I do have a small stake, is in a similar situation.
They, under new management, are taking their main customer to court for non-payment.

Perhaps best expressed as: Just how effective is the partial WB guarantee when, to call it in, risks losing the goodwill of the Nigerian Government?

"If there's a 3-4-6 month time log in settling some bills is it the same $65m otherwise where's the $251m from and why hasn't the WB guarantee been called in ? "
Perhaps a question to send in to the GM, Z?

Pecten - just had a quick browse through your recent posts. Saw this one of the 10th June and thought you might like to submit my question to the GM.

" 'HS you would hope that since SAVE paid down $40M of debt ahead of schedule, then they would pay off Riverfort, otherwise it would cause judgemnt to be seriously questioned.

A simple RNS to confirm repayment would calm the waters...."

Too, as a further thought, I'd be grateful if someone (I am not a shareholder) would submit a question as to the current position on the Riverfort loan [which warranted an RNS on 6th March as follows:
6 March 2020
Savannah Petroleum PLC
("Savannah" or "the Company")
Update on Loan Facility
Further to the Company's announcement on 18 October 2019 (the "RNS"), the Company announces that the Maturity Date of the Facility (which is no longer considered material to the Company) was amended to be 6 June 2020. The Facility is expected to be repaid in full from the Company's cash resources prior to expiry.]
I can't recall whether there was any further news on this?

Thanks, Interzone. Very useful.

Yes, thanks. That's my understanding too of what is being conveyed. The interims should provide proof of the pudding, I hope.

Thanks, Interzone. I was having difficulty in retrieving it; and, as you can guess, my memory is by no means perfect.

Not patronising, Pecten. I was offering you an explanation as to why you may have missed the background information to my message. However, I see that you do not have that excuse for your posting.

Pecten - you are new here. I provided the information long ago; notably the Cable articles back in October/November 2019 that there was an undisclosed $68m (I can't remember exactly which) of unpaid bills that the Savannah CFO (?) had demanded payment from the government for in a written letter that was the first stage in a default process. [I'm sure somebody here can post the link - most of you know what I am referring to.]. That is the background that underpins my message that all the old hands on here are aware of.

I am not the one making it personal, Z; and never have been.
I continue to ask the same questions because they have not been answered.
I await the interims which should help clarify matters.
I am sorry the information I provide does not please everyone; but that is not a reason to not to ask what I consider to be sensible questions.

Z - Please do not try and discredit the messenger. I have always made clear that I was out as soon as I read the article about non-payment back in late Feb. I have been waiting to reinvest (for the long path) but not until the cash matters are clear.
The main question is, as ever, what percentage are they getting paid and not paid of their billing, and are they getting paid everything on time. The company has not answered this although having plenty of opportunity to do so. We know that the Gencos were only getting paid about 30% of their billing back in the Spring. (I can't recall the article offhand). We know the Nigerian economy is in considerable trouble. We know that the Riverfort Loan has not been paid off (have they taken the further $5m? - we don't know). We know there isn't cash to develop Niger plans currently. We know licence applications are coming up soon (and perhaps need payment?). We know there has been a flurry of promotion without substantial news to support it. I think it is sensible to be cautious.

Maybe tomorrow.
AK likes a Friday RNS.

I don't want to mention the 'P' word, and although a reported 'Group cash balance of US$54m as at 30 June 2020', isn't anyone the slightest bit concerned about the sudden promotion by this company (share purchases, new presentation, interviews) without there also being any material news to go with it?
Hopefully this material news will come soon to justify it.

Page 6 of this thesis:
'...I have been in constant dialogue with representatives of the company
who have stated they have been getting paid and the dispute did not
affect them. Quoting the Savannah Representative- ‘ If the company
was not getting paid an RNS would be issued.’

Really, when was an RNS issued that mentioned the non-payments of circa $63m ( I forget exactly how much) up to November 2019 that triggered the infamous letter (first stage of a default process)?
Why has the interviewer in both the latest promotions not mentioned 'non-payment' issues and only talked about potential revenue?
Why suddenly this flurry of director buys and interviews?
I'm very much waiting for the interims to explain the level of non-payment before investing. Maybe overcautious and most likely I'll miss out - but can no longer invest here blindly, on trust. I'll do my best to overcome FOMO until then.

https://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?depth=1&hl=en&prev=search&pto=aue&rurl=translate.google.co.uk&sl=fr&sp=nmt4&u=https://www.stopblablacam.com/economie/2708-4805-electricite-les-sous-traitants-revendiquent-6-milliards-de-fcfa-d-impayes-a-eneo&usg=ALkJrhjBA4UKG9_wkAS_c_shSJiVzRGKbQ
Relations are now strained between Eneo, the concessionaire of the electricity distribution service in Cameroon, and its subcontractors. Grouped within the Association of Electricity and Water Companies of Cameroon (Asselec), these companies threaten to observe a work stoppage as of August 31.

The decision endorsed during the extraordinary general assembly of the Association of Electricity and Water Companies of Cameroon (Aseelec) held in Douala on August 25, aims to demand the payment of 6 billion FCFA representing the debt accumulated by Eneo for 5 years with its subcontractors......

[ Also: https://www.investiraucameroun.com/economie/2708-15091-l-electricien-eneo-recrute-des-sous-traitants-pour-ses-operations-commerciales ]

As I suggested, the charts (particularly RSI) suggest this was the bottom. British Bulls (which follows rather than leads the way) agree with my interpretation, altering their position tonight to BUY:
VOG.L VICTORIA OIL AND GAS
Last Signal:BUY
Last Pattern:BULLISH DOJI STAR
Last Close:3.1450 Change:+0.0450 Percent change+1.45% Signal Update Our system’s recommendation today is to BUY. The BULLISH DOJI STAR pattern finally received a confirmation because the prices crossed above the confirmation level which was at 3.0725, and our valid average buying price stands now at 3.1230. The previous SHORT signal was issued on 31/07/2020, 26 days ago, when the stock price was 3.6700. Since then VOG.L has fallen by -14.90%.
Market Outlook The bulls have strong evidence on their side and this evidence prompts us to make a bullish bet. The bullish pattern that was previously identified is finally confirmed and a BUY signal is generated. It is probably the right time to be part of this boost and bullish market sentiment. The market is telling you about a possible new profit. Do not miss this chance. more...

Looks like he's finally managed to spud something!

3.49 was the advertised spread.
Dummy sells/buys were 2.91 - 3.15
But congratulations - I think you have bought at the bottom. That's what the RSI and charts have been telling me (lets see if BritishBulls changes its advice tonight based on today's price action). It may trundle along here for a while until news, but I quite expect it to rise within a week, even tomorrow.
If you bought today, well done.