Member Info for happysparrow

Correction: '5th February implied'

Lea, Hi - no doubt you've noticed the VOG board is infested by trolls, so I'm putting this information here for you. Too, it is as much to do with BLVN as VOG; and, as there was no information for you in today's VOG RNS on this matter, I hope this will help you ask the right questions of BLVN on 5th November. Note: I am not going to say what was said to me. However, from what I've put here, you should catch my drift.

What needs to be noted is that after the 5th Feb VOG was put under new and much better management. They have already taken a tough line of ridding us of certain directors; and in taking Eneo to court for non-payment.

It also should be noted that the Limbe to Bekoko pipeline has multiple stakeholders and beneficiaries - New Age and JV partners, Vog/GDC, the Government, Aksa power station (and thus Eneo), and the people. Thus VOG cannot be expected to be the sole payer for this pipeline as perhaps the 5th Oct RNS implied, and perhaps as the previous useless management envisaged.

So the question to ask BLVN on the 5th November is what contribution are they going to make to funding this pipeline; and if their answer is none, for them to fully justify it.

These are my thoughts on the matter. Good luck with getting some full answers from BLVN.

https://www.aksainvestorrelations.com/material-disclosures/

https://www.investiraucameroun.com/energie/2910-15472-pour-reduire-les-delais-de-raccordement-l-electricien-eneo-met-en-place-un-guichet-unique-des-clients-industriels
'...In operation for a few weeks, this new window is currently centralizing the operations of connecting three industrial units to the distribution network by the end of 2020. These are: Prometal IV in Douala (9 MW) , Acero Harjaap in Ngaoundéré (2 MW in phase I) and Phalucam in Douala (1 MW in phase 1 of the client project).

https://www.gazducameroun.com/case-studies/prometal-thermal-case-study/

'thought'

Lea - I appreciate you originated this question. However, the company chose to respond to me in a personal email, and didn't publish these responses widely. Thus I regard the correspondence as 'in confidence'. My advice would be to contact the company directly and ask that question. Their response was solid and helpful; and it would be of interest to you.
Apologies that my answer is limited.
I think it is likely that the interims tomorrow may include a trading update; and so, it seems likely that now the company knows what needs to be clarified, these matters will be addressed in tomorrow's update.
If I were you I would read that update tomorrow, and if it doesn't answer your question, or indeed raises more questions, then I would contact them directly.
I though their replies were forthright and responsive.

Danno - interims should be tomorrow. This was from the RNS of 30th September:
5. Interim Results to 30 June 2020 - VOG announces that, pursuant to the guidance issued by AIM Regulation in the Inside AIM notification dated 9 June 2020, the Company is utilising the one month extension to the date by which it is required under AIM Rule 18 to publish its interim results for the six-month period ended 30 June 2020. Accordingly, the Company will be publishing its 2020 interim results by 31 October 2020.

I did not enquire about this, but assume all is well.

Regards turning a corner, I don't think Roy would have taken on the job otherwise.

Emails were sent to me in answer to my questions at about 9.30am. Replies were solid and helpful. But, yes, agree - it would be good if they now compiled a list of these questions and replies for all to review, and put them up on their website.

This was the important bit:
In 2014, Actis acquired a 56% stake in Cameroon’s national electricity integrated utility, Eneo.
The other 44% is owned by the Cameroon government.

[Good to see you back, RF. Hope all goes well.]

It seems that VOG could lobby the British Government to get ENEO to pay up? Particularly now that Eneo has been refinanced recently.

https://www.act.is/about-actis/actis-at-a-glance/
https://www.act.is/about-actis/our-portfolio/eneo/
(See Eneo Case Study - bottom right pdf)

https://www.cdcgroup.com/en/our-impact/investment/actis-energy-cameroon-holdings-eneo/
'Actis is a leading investor in growth markets across Africa, Asia and Latin America. Its three separate investment groups focus on energy and infrastructure; real estate; and general sectors, including consumer, education, financial services, healthcare, industrial, manufacturing, and retail.
Actis was formed in 2004 following a restructuring of CDC designed to bring more equity capital into developing countries and the two organisations have a shared history.'
CDC investment 2014 $10.1m
https://www.cdcgroup.com/en/about/our-history/page/1/
'Our vision is to become the most developmental DFI: tackling market failures that hold back development such as access to medicines, boosting power generation and transmission....'
https://www.cdcgroup.com/en/news-insight/news/cdc-group-to-invest-2-billion-in-african-businesses-over-the-next-two-years/?fl=true
'...CDC Group is the world’s first impact investor with over 70 years of experience of successfully supporting the sustainable, long-term growth of businesses in Africa and South Asia.
CDC is a key advocate for the adoption of renewable energy in Africa and South Africa in the fight against climate change and a UK champion of the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals – the global blueprint to achieve a better and more sustainable future for us all.
The company has investments in over 1,200 businesses in emerging economies and a total portfolio value of £5.8bn. This year CDC will invest over $1.5bn in companies in Africa and Asia with a focus on fighting climate change, empowering women and creating new jobs and opportunities for millions of people.
CDC is funded by the UK government...'

Interesting article posted on Advfn Blvn:
https://anglophonecrisis.org/2020/04/04/from-Russia-with-gas/
Also: https://www.businessincameroon.com/economy/0702-9948-russian-lukoil-in-cameroon-to-negotiate-the-reconstruction-of-sonara

****** = bullocks

Yep, not forgotten, earache. Hope all well at your end, too. Here, looking forward to all this Covid ****** ending soon - can't come soon enough.

This morning, couldn't resist a small bite at this. One of my main concerns was the conventional business and the weakening gas price and Turkish Lira. Never expected them to sell. Solves the problem.
Still concerned with the swollen, even 'obese', BoD - they could lose half their number and not notice, and thus they could easily gorge themselves on most of the incoming funds.
Too, not sure the company has the skills to get a good M&A bargain? There will be plenty of sharp competitors out there too. Perhaps they would do well to merge with another entity so as to have even more purchasing power? - but career rivalries will probably put a stop to such moves?
Looks possible that we might have some news on farm-out in Q1; and M&A in Q2/3. I think those are the timescales we are looking at now.

No funds currently as my main shares are at their lows, and many opportunities I'd like to pick up. But when my money comes in, I hope to pick up a few more here if still cheap.

Rough calculation: this share now worth 40p in cash + 20tcf potential asset.
However, still top-heavy in management?
(And now will have little income to meet G&A?)
And do you think SG and team will spend the money wisely?

But clearly undervalued on any metric.
I can see it being taken out?

Nice surprise for you this morning, Earache.
Well done for holding.

Ivans - this was from last quarterly update:
Cash and cash equivalents at 31 May 2020 was $5.0 million (31 May 2019: $15.7 million).

We expect the next update before the end of this month - I expect it will be slightly higher than $5m; as we are cash positive generating, with little cash burn currently (as basically not much going on workwise).

The recent 2019 year end results suggested that if we did not get paid by ENEO soon, then they may have to raise funds in 2021, in order to progress their work programmes. ( I did not think this was fully explained by the latest RNS, but got no response from the company with regard to my further enquiries on this.).

So, in my view, it all depends on ENEO. If we get paid before year end, then there should be no placing. If we don't, then perhaps we should expect a placing - and that won't go down well with investors.

I expect it is the power purchase agreement that is the stumbling block. With ENEO better funded now (see my previous posts on LSE VOG), perhaps we can see some forward movement on this?

Also part of AKSA's calculation?
4) The development of cross border electricity interconnection grids

http://www.crtv.cm/2019/10/cemac-12-integrating-projects-worth-2820-billion-cfaf/
https://www.investiraucameroun.com/gestion-publique/1510-15385-en-attendant-bruxelles-la-cemac-a-lance-a-paris-la-mobilisation-de-2-500-milliards-de-fcfa-pour-12-projets-integrateurs

[2500 billion FCFA = $4.5 Billion]
the Cemac zone (Cameroon, Central African Republic, Congo, Gabon, Equatorial Guinea and Chad)

Also part of AKSA's calculation?
4) The development of cross border electricity interconnection grids

http://www.crtv.cm/2019/10/cemac-12-integrating-projects-worth-2820-billion-cfaf/
https://www.investiraucameroun.com/gestion-publique/1510-15385-en-attendant-bruxelles-la-cemac-a-lance-a-paris-la-mobilisation-de-2-500-milliards-de-fcfa-pour-12-projets-integrateurs

[2500 billion FCFA = $4.5 Billion]
the Cemac zone (Cameroon, Central African Republic, Congo, Gabon, Equatorial Guinea and Chad)

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/BIST-AKSEN/
Up 185% this year. Should have funds to invest in proposed Cameroon power plant.

'Aksa Energy, one of Turkey's leading energy companies, plans to seize further investment opportunities in the African market, following its first investment in Republic of Ghana for installation of a power plant, electricity generation and the guaranteed sale of this energy via a power purchase agreement (PPA).'
http://www.aksapowergen.com/about/about270.php

I expect it is the power purchase agreement that is the stumbling block. With ENEO better funded now (see my previous posts on ENEO - LSE VOG), perhaps we can see some forward movement on this?

Thoughts, anyone?