Member Info for happysparrow

Fairly obvious response, Hamz - Morocco, with its proximity to Europe, is not the same market as Sub-Saharan Africa. However, plenty of institutions are willing to invest in Sub-Saharan Africa if the project economics are right. Gas development in Nigeria is being pushed by their government (see SAVE who have 10% of that market currently). Electricity development is being pushed by the Cameroonian government, and too for the wider CEMAC region (Business in Cameroon is a good website). Key for Etinde will be the development of a power station or two at Bekoko (Aksa) and/or Limbe. I doubt the Etinde project will be attractive to funders until one of these power stations gets the go ahead.

3CB - the point I was making is that the $60m cost overrun by the previous rotten useless management perhaps has some potential for investigation (criminal?); and a return of some funds to VOG.
It definitely would come as a pleasant surprise for current shareholders.

Plenty has been said frequently on the ADVFN board, 3CB. I don't regard it as slanderous - I would just like to know the truth. After having lost money in Globo, I have considerable empathy for any shareholders caught up in such dealings. But, it must be stressed, Roy's first actions here were to rid us of the old management. VOG is a very different beast now.

I note from the RNS:
'The Settlement Amount will be paid monthly over many years unless it is satisfied earlier by other means, including the realisation of cash from certain trade receivables, which have been fully provided in the Company's accounts, active and planned claims (insurance and legal) and the sale of one of the Group's non-core assets (the "Alternative Assets"). '

Does anyone know the full extent of these claims - exactly what is being claimed, and how much?

As a guess, I expect we have insurance claims for dropping the gun in the well. Now that the gun has been fished out, I should imagine it will be sent to the assessor to determine blame (?), and that this insurance claim cannot be far away in being settled - probably for the full cost of well-remediation.

Too, the drilling company may have a claim of negligence against it. Now that the gun has been retrieved, I should imagine that this matter now can be progressed too.

Then there is the matter of the extortionate cost of drilling these wells under the Foo/Dik regime (a $100m?). This is what really ****ed off a lot of the past shareholders. Perhaps there is some legal come back here - I don't know what is being pursued (it might have to come under criminal law?). Anyone know anything ?

Ginoir - must admit I took some off the table too. But I'm useless as a trader, so only averaged 6p over the last 2 days' trades. Have kept the bulk of my holding. If it can climb like this, imagine what it will do when the Matanda licence is extended; and ENEO contract settled and recommences (both before year end, imo) - let alone Aksa/Etinde deals, or West Med sale come through.
I think I may have severely underestimated the share price potential that could be achieved here (estimating 6/7p+ for recovery; 13p+ for Merger/takeover). As said yesterday, looking at the chart for the past 5 years, a 35p target might not seem unreasonable; particularly seeing how quickly this share moved on our news 2 days ago. We were severely undervalued before, so good to see some recognition by the market of how the New Management is performing - and that VOG is now a completely different kettle of fish from the Foo/Dik days.

With this relentless rise you have to wonder whether there is more to this than meets the eye - Corporate action?

Thanks, OnlyYou.
Full version here: http://www.bowleven.com/system/files/press/investor-call-2677383nov09_0.mp3
Having listened again, regards my previous comments, I think (a) and (c) remain as is. (b) is more nuanced, (too, I can't catch all the words precisely) and I first took tripartite discussions to include Blvn, but now think he means just VOG, Aksa, and SNH/govt. So Blvn says it is important to them, but is remaining uncommitted to their participation in funding the onshore pipeline (perhaps hinting that, after all, they are building the offshore link).

Hamm, just seen your post. That was the last questioner, if I recall correctly, but what was then said was very interesting. I'm not a shareholder yet (I'm in VOG). Perhaps you could ask IR to have another go at posting the material, please

Shame, some very interesting material was cut off from the end of the broadcast. Perhaps they can redo the link?

I wrote this on 30th September:
Quick overview, Kion:
It was a basket-case, with rotten management that have driven it into the ground and left a lot of legacy issues.
New management were appointed in Spring 2020.
The company is at a low point. It is at high risk of going bust if it loses the legacy issues.
However, it is a considerable opportunity if you believe it can be kept afloat and turned around - it's infrastructure is worth tens of millions of dollars alone.
There are some big opportunities pushing the SP up to 6/7p+ on early recovery, and 13p+ on merger imo:
Eneo debt payment; West Med sale; Aksa power station deal. However, my original reason for being here is the possibility of a merger/takeover by New Age or SEY - note my posts at the end of April - Roy Kelly and other are ex-Kerogen; Kerogen is the principal shareholder in New Age.
A lot of research needed - as high risk.
Good luck.

This was my post on 16th Sept:
No objection here, RF68.
But with 3CB and crew?

Also US$1 = 555 CFAF
So 132 billion CFAF = $238m to Eneo (probably October)
$9m = 3.8% of total
Thus, we have a high chance of being paid soon, imo.

Current MCap = £8m
$9m / 1.3 = £6.9m
Thus £14.9m / 257m shares = share price of 5.8p (pretty close to Zac Mir's 6p target).

As you know, 3CB, ENEO was heavily refinanced by the Banks and Government in October to the tune of hundreds of millions of $$$$. They now have plenty of cash to buy our gas and settle our claims. That's why Roy was over there visiting them last week. Expect settlement and recommencement of supply soon.

Roy Kelly was in Cameroon beginning of November.
He is likely to have talked with both the Government and ENEO.
I expect the Matanda Licence extension to be granted soon; the chances considerably enhanced by today's LA108 well result.
And the ENEO settlement (including recommencement of supply) before xmas. (Too, today's well result should confirm to ENEO we have the resources to provide a continuing supply.)
Then AKSA power station, and Etinde project. (Today's well result will give AKSA more confidence of a reliable supply; too, that should encourage the Etinde partners and Cameroonian Government to finalise negotiations.)
Basically this good news today of a large reliable gas resource will shift a lot of VOG's projects forward, and strengthen our negotiating hand with the other players.
Matanda licence first, I guess - and soon.

From 30/09/20 RNS:
Matanda
GDC received the Presidential Decree that had been signed by H.E. Biya on 17 December 2018 authorising the transfer of the interest in Matanda from Glencore resulting in GDC holding a 75% interest and operatorship and AFEX holding the remaining 25%. SNH have a right to back in up to 25% post exploitation licence. The agreed obligation for this work programme was one exploration well plus reprocessing of existing seismic in the first two-year period of the PSC....
Phase Two of the Matanda Work Programme commenced in early June 2019 with a risk mitigation workflow. The initial stages of this work flow include an analysis of the gathered data over each prospect. The aim of this work is to refine the understanding of the risk of the identified prospects which will lead into the next phase of the work flow: detailed well planning to geological prognosis.
Alongside the above workstreams, the scope for the Environmental and Social Impact Assessment ("ESIA") was finalised to ensure that all aspects of risks to the environment and social factors have been assessed and necessary precautions taken, in accordance with the requisite rules and regulations, to ensure there is minimal impact on the environment ahead of drilling preparation. The ESIA is ongoing....
Commitments:
The Logbaba Concession does not contain any work programme obligations.
GDC's work programme on the Matanda Block is US$11.25 million, which should be executed prior to December 2020. However, following delays in obtaining PSC amendments, security concerns and Covid-19 interruptions, GDC is unlikely to complete the required work programme on time and is currently in the process of making an application for an extension.

From 30/10/20 RNS:
The Company continues discussions with the Cameroon State for the extension of the Matanda license.

Available gas reserves and the La-108 intervention:
With effect of 1 January 2020, the Group has revised the Logbaba proved developed reserves ("1P") from 69 Bcf to 19 Bcf. The successful completion of the La-108 intervention, the funding of which is dependent on the recovery of amounts owed to GDC by ENEO, or by alternative funding arrangements, is fundamental to GDC's ability to recover the revised 1P Reserves and its continuing ability to provide gas to customers. As with any such operation, the outcome of the La-108 intervention has typical geological and operational uncertainty. Should the outcome be at the lower end of expectations, this would shorten the life of the Logbaba Field. The Group is actively pursuing other sources of gas to mitigate this risk.

Today's RNS:
Following the perforation of 2 of the sand intervals in the Upper Logbaba formation, an initial clean-up flow test was commenced on 11 November 2020...
The well was opened up on a 16/64" choke and was beaned up to 32/64", and as of 5 p.m. GMT yesterday was flowing approximately 19 MMscf/d with a Flowing Well Head Pressure (FWHP) of 3,580 psig. The full potential of the well is highly likely to exceed the capacity of the plant, which is 20 MMscf/d....
six sets of perforations were shot across a total estimated gross pay interval of 86m. The well was opened up on 11 November 2020 to a flare and achieved a flowrate of just under 20 MMscf/d with a FWHP of 3,580 psig on a 32/64" choke. The theoretical AOF (Absolute Open Flow) potential of La-108 is estimated to be 50 MMscf/d (though this is to be confirmed following analysis of all the test data). In addition, four more Upper Logbaba sands in La-108 remain available for perforation in the future, as required by production. ...what is an over-pressured reservoir...
'Lastly, we are extremely pleased to have safely remediated La-108 and to have tested it at excellent flowrates.'

https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/africa/ep-africa/278518/victoria-chl-royalty-cameroon/

3 LRGS (late reported trades) so far. Last one the buyer was prepared to pay 4.8p. About £66k purchased so far. Any more to come?

Zac Mir:
Has burst through 50 dma of 2.68p - a strong signal.
If can end close of play today above 200 dma of 3.5p, then in the next 1 to 2 months expect a price of about 6 to 6.25p.

Worth Looking at the ADVFN + LSE BLVN boards.
http://www.bowleven.com/system/files/press/recording-20201109-2677383nov09.mp3
I have not listened to this again yet (I have to go out now) but my first impression was
b) Limbe - Bekoko pipeline (thanks whoever asked the question - Lea?) working interests under discussion (in other words, very likely BLVN will be contributing something towards funding it, imo).

I'd also posted this there on the 30th October:
'What needs to be noted is that after the 5th Feb VOG was put under new and much better management. They have already taken a tough line of ridding us of certain directors; and in taking Eneo to court for non-payment.
It also should be noted that the Limbe to Bekoko pipeline has multiple stakeholders and beneficiaries - New Age and JV partners, Vog/GDC, the Government, Aksa power station (and thus Eneo), and the people. Thus VOG cannot be expected to be the sole payer for this pipeline as perhaps the 5th Oct RNS implied, and perhaps as the previous useless management envisaged.
So the question to ask BLVN on the 5th November is what contribution are they going to make to funding this pipeline; and if their answer is none, for them to fully justify it.'

'The Company and GDC have provided a charge, with customary terms, over the Alternative Assets, and CHL will be entitled to receive varying portions of the proceeds of any future realisation of such assets while the Settlement Amount is outstanding and these amounts will reduce the balance outstanding.'

Does this mean that the 'Alternative Assets' are valued at a minimum of $12.5m ?

Now 3.58-3.92p spread
I think the market is beginning to see the potential turn around here.
GLA