Member Info for happysparrow

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Russian-Drillers-Rejoice-As-Oil-Continues-To-Rally.html

https://archive.schillerinstitute.com/economy/phys_econ/2017/0106-transaqua/traq.html

Of interest?

Thanks, Celtic. Very interesting interview on V o x m arkets.
I note the WTE shareholder posts on the Eco board.

Gil has clearly bet the house on the Canje block coming in (Eco will sink badly if it doesn't come in, probably halve, and thus this is a further reason to be in WTE where failure may not lead to more than 20% downside from here?) ; and as I suggested before, Eco know more than the average PI on the likely success here - they've seen all the data, and acted before the Jabillo results.
I would not be surprised to see ECO and JHI merge. At the very least, I think Eco may purchase its second JHI tranche through a share swap.
Glad I bought more WTE yesterday.
GLA

'.... As announced on 18 June 2021, VOG has arranged additional finance through a loan note instrument with Meridian Capital (HK) Limited, part of which is conditional on a Rule 9 waiver being granted by The Takeover Panel and approval by independent shareholders on a poll in due course.
The management at VOG are flat to the boards working on the various processes including the results and annual report. Operationally I am convinced that they are delivering hence the recent support by Meridian.'

https://www.businessincameroon.com/public-management/3006-11728-cement-mincommerce-threatens-to-close-cimencam-s-facilities-should-the-company-raise-prices-once-again

Danno, Eneo have paid up as per RNS of June 4th. Whether it was before 1st June or after, we don't know, but is critical to my calculations. Assuming it was after, then we are currently operating at breakeven imo. That gives us a solid foundation from which to build, and underlines our current share price. It is the large catalysts that will move this higher, and rapidly.
Those (possibly imminent) catalysts are:
Eneo production deal
West Med sale
Kemerkol monies
Matanda farm out and drill success
Other production deal (Aksa/Etinde or other)
Dangote investment/buyout.
Other takeover deal

That is what keeps us here.

My calculation is that we are running at about breakeven (assuming the $5m Eneo payment was NOT included in the 1st June cash balance):

31/12/19 cash $7.2m
01/06/20 cash $5m (decrease of $2.2m in 5 months = 440K per month)
31/12/20 cash $1.8m (decrease of $3.2m in 7 months = 457K per month)
+ 2020 increase in debt of $2.1m [LA-108, Matanda licence?]
01/06/21 cash $1.25m + $1.25m loan = $2.5m (decrease of $55m in 5 months = 110K per month.

0.95 MMscf/d to be added to gas sales this summer.
Thus now running at about breakeven.

Cash assumption:
$2.5m at 01/06/21
+ $5.1m at 04/06/21 (Eneo monies)
+ $3.3m + $4.2m loan facility at 16/06/21
= current cash available $15.1m

Current debt:
$12.8m at 31/12/20
+ $1.25m Hadron loan
+ $3.3m + $4.2m YF loan
= $21.55m debt

Anyone concur / disagree?

If cash balance at 1st June does include the $5m, then (assuming debt is unchanged) they have spent $5.65m in the last 6 months, despite an increase in gas sales over last year and reduction in both G&A and CHL Royalties.
I just can't see it myself. For all of 2020 we were $5.4m down in cash and an increase in debt of $2.1m. Our performance is not twice as bad as the previous year in my opinion.

Good question, Jed. Very critical.

The $5m was reported as received on the 4th June:
'On 16 April 2021, GDC signed a settlement agreement with Eneo relating to the Take-or-Pay invoices for October, November and December 2019 plus associated interest. 2.7 billion FCFA (Central African CFA franc) (circa US$5.1 million) gross funds have now been received by GDC. This payment to GDC represents full and final settlement for all amounts invoiced to Eneo.'

However, it was due on about 16th May.

So does the cash balance at 1st June of $2.5m include the $5m or not?

I assume it doesn't, but I WOULD LIKE TO KNOW.
(Otherwise I cannot see how they have spent it and the $1.25m Hadron Loan in the past 6 months.)

RNS 24th June: 'The Directors are mindful of the need to provide an appropriate forum for investors to interact with the Board and, as previously announced, the Company intends to facilitate this in conjunction with its accounts meeting for the year ended 31 December 2020 Annual Report and Accounts which it expects to hold in July. Further details will be announced in due course.'
RNS today: 'The Company will publish a comprehensive quarterly update to 30 June 2021 in July.'
So everything will be revealed in July. Could be early July, or late July. We don't know. After 19th July we could have a face-to-face meeting, so possibly then?

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-01784-4
'...Fears about extremely rare adverse events are widespread; fear of the pandemic is not....'
If only our citizens were so wise.

Now 7.21% of JHI (see Celtic's post below).
For others, see slide 4: https://www.westmountenergy.com/download/2021-06-07%20Westmount%20Corporate%20Presentation./?wpdmdl=1137

Harel - Agree that this transaction is some time in the making, with agreed price set, and funding secured. But I guess the drill is at a point that they know whether it is a dry hole or not? My guess is that they have seen sufficient hydrocarbons to transact the deal. I think that the deal would have been delayed/pulled/renegotiated if there was no sign yet of anything at Jabillo. Supposition, of course. Fingers crossed, as ever.

Victoria Oil & Gas Plc announces that its Annual General Meeting ("AGM") will be held on 30 June 2021 .....The Company expects to publish and circulate the 2021 Annual Report and Accounts to Shareholders before the AGM.

Current spread: 5.15 - 5.65.

Well, that's the punt for me - they know something (or, at least, their recent data tells them something, considerably increasing the CoS). If Jabillo is thought to be a duffer, isn't it likely they would have waited a few weeks and bought in at a lower value for Sapota?

Agree almost 100%, phoebus. It seems that cash is burning a hole in Gil's pocket. I, too, would have kept my money for Oruindik development.
However, what this news leads me to believe is that Eco have seen something in the data that PI's don't have access to; and if they are prepared to take a punt, so am I.
Except you are right - it is the same bang for about half the buck to buy WTE than ECO. Hence I bought a few WTE this morning.

Soder - not sure you understood my logic?
If, for example, the drill brings $240m to JHI then, pro rata:
the drill brings $17m (7%) to WTE so its shares will go up by 100%. (Mcap $17m to $34m)
the drill brings $24m (10%) to ECO so its shares will go up by 50%. (Mcap $47m to $71m)

Took a punt.
Maybe simplistic but, despite wide spread, this looks a better play than Eco.
ECO market cap $47m for 10% of JHI.
WTE market cap $17m for 7% of JHI (slightly diluted this morning).
Thus WTE is about half the price (17 x 10/7 = 24) for the resulting impact of any discovery?

https://www.businessincameroon.com/energy/2506-11718-clarke-energy-and-innio-jenbacher-powering-new-pasta-factory-in-cameroon
'...This project is an important milestone and a significant progress for Clarke Energy after successful acquisitions and installations of similar projects in Cameroon, with two other installations planned for Q3 2021...'