Member Info for happysparrow

RNS 24/11/20: The work programme requires the drilling of an exploration well and the company will shortly be finalising the ranking of the significant onshore prospects.

Today's report (page 10): GDC’s work programme on the Matanda Block is US$11.25
million. The licence was extended in December for one year.

So now we have the price of the drill.

one possible way to finance it, that I had not considered before, is the insurance claim - which again we now have an approximate price on:
La-108 Insurance Claim
The Company continues to pursue its highly meritorious claim with the help of industry claim specialists to assist in the matter.
Intangible assets consist mainly of the costs incurred on well
La-108. Works to remediate the well amounting to US$4.0
million were capitalised in 2020 and US$6.3 million were
capitalised in 2019.

Looking at what's been sold, there is about £2000 going at 4.36p, then about £6000 at 4.75p, then should be back to 5p - 5.25p again - if no more are sold.

The Corporate update of 4th June and operational update at the end of this month are of more relevance.

extra 100,000 tonnes of production according to article (the extra 20,000 tonnes I noted was for exports).

Apologies. Link here:
https://www.businessincameroon.com/public-management/1301-11185-cameroon-prometal-to-commission-the-most-modern-iron-processing-plant-in-sub-saharan-africa-in-h2-2021

https://www.businessincameroon.com/public-management/1301-11185-ca

Prometal is one of GDC's major clents.
https://www.gazducameroun.com/case-studies/prometal-thermal-case-study/ (somewhat dated info.)
This extra 20,000 tonnes of steel production might be additional gas usage? [It is not the recently added 0.56 mmscf/d (pasta factory), nor do I think it is part of the expected addition of 0.95 mmscf/d due this summer.]
Also, in perhaps Q4?, we have the Dangote cement plant expansion to add to our sales.

A new state-of-the-art plant
With a yearly production esti-
mated to exceed 260,000 tons,
the steel industry is one of the
rare local industries that meet
demands in Cameroon and even
cater to exports. According to
operators, in Cameroon, the yearly
demand is about 180,000 tons,
meaning the country can export
some 80,000 tons of steel yearly.
That steel exporting capacity will
rise to 100,000 tons this year when
the new state-of-the-art steel
manufacturing plant built in Bassa
industrial zone, Douala, enters its
production phase.
Indeed, Prometal, leader of the
local market, is currently finalizing
the testing phase for the commis-
sioning of the plant (Prometal 4)
presented as the most modern
iron processing plant, with the
most diversified range of products,
in Sub-Saharan Africa. Prometal
4 is the result of a CFAF40 billion
investment through which pro-
ducts usually imported by African
countries will be manufactured
locally, authorized sources infor-
med. Those products are notably
beams, angle irons, smooth bars,
and screws as well as flat bars and
wire rods, which are intermediate
products used to manufacture
nails. Credible sources indicate
that Cameroon’s trade deficit on
iron-based construction materials
could be reduced by 50% thanks to
the local production of the above-
mentioned products.
https://www.businessincameroon.com/pdf/BC101.pdf
Page 12

Recovery is perhaps not as strong as I had imagined, yet, 3CB - I emphasise 'yet'. Too, had hoped for at least one of the major catalysts to come in by now (West Med, Kermekol, Eneo deal, Matanda farm out). So a waiting game, with SP having reached equilibrium at about 5 - 5.5 p on current news. Would like to be here for the results of the Matanda drill, and the Etinde FID/Aksa (Q12022 ?). And takeover, maybe?
If long delay for positive news then the 'recovery-play' risk here increases over time due to cash burn and debt; so position here will be adjusted with newsflow expectations, but should hold a decent amount on the basis that just one catalyst coming-in is likely to double current share price.
News due soon: accounts - if nothing else.
ATB.

Yes, agree, anthony. Really puts you off being involved here. However, it seems politicians and corporations are a disgusting breed not only here but worldwide.
I think this will shock you equally. (View from 4 hours 30 mins in). Fascinating, but evil.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jtc-_0tkeog&t=16228s

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/hundreds-left-homeless-douala-demolition-130042778.html

(Thanks to Mount Teide.)
Liam Halligan - Telegraph today 'As for global price pressures, oil last week hit a three-year high of $75 – 40pc up on a year ago. Part of the reason was the Opec exporters’ cartel delaying any increase in crude output levels. But, even aside from Opec’s supply-side shenanigans, we’re in for demand-led price rises as the post-Covid global economy reboots. Wall Street analysts now predict oil averaging over $80 during the third quarter, with potential spikes well above that as demand comes roaring back. While cheap Chinese exports helped contain global inflation during the recovery which followed the 2008 financial crisis, today’s increasingly sophisticated and much bigger Chinese economy drives inflation higher. The People’s Republic has become by far the world’s largest energy importer, with oil consumption soaring from 9.3 million to 14.1 million barrels daily during the decade from 2010, accounting for almost half the total rise in global oil use. The internal combustion engine will be with us for some time – and while it is, Chinese oil demand will generate upward price pressures. ....'

Bought back in this morning. Like many, been waiting for this drill a long time.
Good summary by Here&now. One option not mentioned is money coming in from Duyong sale - and it has been held out as a carrot for far too long to believe it will come in before the drill - but it might. Too, a JV partner now looks unlikely.
No one wants to end up funding this from the £10m CLN or a further placing. So much depends on the warrants, and that is the immediate gamble.
You only have to look at the promotion of 88E and PANR on the OTC to see that this is more than possible. And all those who took part in the placing most likely did this on the expectation of exercising these warrants.
So there will be a big push now to get this to 12p. I guess that 9-10p will be seen in short order. At that point, some of the placees (and some of the traders) might start cashing-in in order to finance their warrant purchases. So how much new blood will be brought in? I guess a lot, for many like me have been sitting on the sidelines, and will want to be in on this drill.
So, yes, 9-10p definitely, and perhaps 12-14p thereafter, (all imho of course, and far too often wrong).

For the year 2020 alone, this debt increased by 40 billion, due in particular to the slowdown in regular payments from the State from the second half of the year. Eneo wishes to find, together with the State and the companies concerned, lasting solutions likely to guarantee the financial equilibrium of the electricity sector. In this sense, an internal source announces the signing of a debt agreement shortly after the work carried out under the aegis of the Technical Commission for Rehabilitation (CTR).

https://www.investiraucameroun.com/energie/0707-16607-factures-d-electricite-eneo-estime-a-207-milliards-de-fcfa-les-impayes-de-l-etat-et-des-autres-entites-publiques

I think it is fair to assume the CoS is higher for Sapote-1 than Jabillo-1. Yes?

Both the Eco and Wte RNS make the point that Sapote-1 is closer to major existing discoveries than previous Canje wells, and that (Eco) it is a separate and distinct target from Jabillo-1, (WTE) a new depositional setting and is (WTE) a multi-layer prospect, and potentially the largest Canje prospect to be drilled so far.

Eco: The Sapote-1 prospect is located in the south eastern section of Canje, and is a separate and distinct target from Jabillo. Sapote-1 lies approximately 100 km southeast of Jabillo and approximately 50 km north of the Haimara discovery in the Stabroek Block which encountered ~207 feet (63 meters) of high-quality, gas-condensate bearing sandstone reservoir and approximately 60 km northwest of the Maka Central discovery in Block 58 which encountered ~164 feet (50 meters) of high-quality, oil-bearing sandstone reservoir.

WTE: The focus of the ExxonMobil operated Canje drilling campaign now switches to the Sapote-1 well, which is located more than 100 kms to the southeast. This well will be drilled in a new depositional setting, linked to the Berbice canyon system, and closer to Upper Cretaceous discoveries in the Stabroek Block and Suriname's Block 58. Sapote-1 is an independent multi-layer prospect, which will evaluate several Upper Cretaceous targets, and is potentially the largest prospect drilled on the Canje block to date.

now 8.6 - 9.5 (not 7 - 8.5).

Currently dummy price is 8.6 - 8.98 (not the advertised price of 7p to 8.50p). They want your shares. Do not sell.

Looking at the trades (unless late reported), there has been little selling of WTE. Manipulation?

Obviously, I know nothing.

Yes, confident of Jabillo: Eco have seen the data and wanted in, and in NOW, before the result. In May Hess upped their holding in Kaieteur block. Exxon is operator, and went for this drill ahead of other areas, exploring west of Stabroek. Note success in Block 58. (Slide 10 on WTE presentation - deeper targets, and higher API, + gas.) Also Tanager-1 not commercial as a 'stand-alone' development - however, combine with Jabillo?
Share prices: I think Eco has gone way ahead of itself, and will fall back to the teens if a duff result. The WTE drop I put down to a large and persistent seller. I suspect someone bought too many, hoping to sell half into a rise before the drill, which never materialised; and now over-committed to a single well result, are de-risking heavily. A buying opportunity.
But what do I know?