Member Info for happysparrow

https://www.ghanabusinessnews.com/2018/06/15/hundreds-of-millions-evaporate-the-hazy-pattern-of-corruption-in-gaz-du-cameroun/

PS - I also picked up some BLVN shares a few days ago (Etinde FID Q1 2021).

Covered this in my post of 12th July, 3CB. As follows:
'Recovery is perhaps not as strong as I had imagined, yet, 3CB - I emphasise 'yet'. Too, had hoped for at least one of the major catalysts to come in by now (West Med, Kermekol, Eneo deal, Matanda farm out). So a waiting game, with SP having reached equilibrium at about 5 - 5.5 p on current news. Would like to be here for the results of the Matanda drill, and the Etinde FID/Aksa (Q12022 ?). And takeover, maybe?
If long delay for positive news then the 'recovery-play' risk here increases over time due to cash burn and debt; so position here will be adjusted with newsflow expectations, but should hold a decent amount on the basis that just one catalyst coming-in is likely to double current share price.
News due soon: accounts - if nothing else.
ATB.'

Agree, Jed - I too have concerns over YF Finance having such a dominant position. Nonetheless, it is they that are keeping us funded until takeover or recovery. They could have pulled the plug on us much earlier if they had wished; they haven't. They see value, and so should we - as long as we don't get shafted by them.

With oil at $75, Jed, I'm not sure the market currently agrees with you.
But with the New World Order (with its Fake Science of pandemics and man-made climate change) now very much in control, things may look very different in a years time, particularly if a large number of people die from 'vaccine'-ADE this winter (it will be labelled as due to Covid, of course). Already 'the powers that be' are determined to destroy the travel and airline industry; and will phase out diesel trucks by 2040. However, if I come unstuck on this, so will everyone else - 'you will own nothing and be happy' being their mantra. There will be no shareholders then. It will be hell.
If it comes to pass, see you on the barricades, Jed.

Agreed, Jed. That's the gamble.

It would not surprise me if we are taken out - at the same time Blvn reach Etinde FID in Q12022. Blvn might also be taken out at the same time (they've invested £1.4 billion in the Etinde project - see advfn blvn). New Age or Lukoil, possibly? Or Dangote? You can see the size of the prize of a Vog/Blvn takeout- large producing gas fields both offshore and onshore (Matanda + Logbaba); pipeline infrastructure with downstream sales for Douala; power stations and fertiliser plants at Limbe; LNG exports, etcetera. Off the top of my head I would think VOG would be worth £100m to anyone in that scenario (less our debt). What Roy needs now is to confirm the LA-108 long term well production capability, discover more gas that can be cheaply drilled at Matanda (1 tcf), and then VOG is ready for sale - at about the same time as Etinde FID is announced.

Do not forget Roy's background: 'Roy was appointed CEO in March 2020. He is based in London and has over 35 years of technical, commercial and managerial experience in the international energy industry and was previously Partner, Head of Technical, at Kerogen Capital,'
If I recall correctly, Kerogen is New Age's principle shareholder: '
Shareholders
NewAge is a privately funded oil and gas company, backed by substantial and reputable shareholders with significant experience in oil and gas upstream investments. Shareholders include Kerogen Capital, HOPU Investments, a multinational oil trading company and a large US hedge fund, as well as various family offices.'.

Spread dropped to 3.8p - 4.18p, a £500,000 drop in market cap, but only £2 traded so far today - work that one out. They are taking the p i ss.

Jed - I first bought in here 15 months ago because VOG was then a basket case. My view then was the assets made us worth taking over by a larger business with cash. My view on asset-worth has not changed. If we struggle to find the cash, then we will be taken over for more than the current market cap imo. But Roy is doing a miraculous job in keeping this company going, so a Recovery play is also on the cards. Where he will ultimately find the cash I don't know, but then again, he's already pulled out a few rabbits from the hat so far. This is not a share for orphans and widows - it is AIM.

https://www.jerseyfsc.org/registry/documentsearch/NameDetail.aspx?Id=24575

From company website I see Clarendon Trust held 6.44% at 1st April 2021.

Clarendon Trust - Sub Fund B has a 5.99% holding.

Can anyone explain more?

'... we are also inviting questions from Shareholders in advance of the Meeting. A response to these questions will be issued before the Meeting and additional information about this process will be made available on our website. All questions should be sent directly to the Company by close of business on Friday 6 August 2021 either via email to compliance@victoriaoilandgas.com or by post to Victoria Oil & Gas Plc, Scott House, Suite 1, The Concourse, Waterloo Station, London, SE1 9LX and include your Shareholder registration number or registered Shareholder details and address.'

I'd recommend submitting questions. Last time I received very frank and informative replies which I found useful. Replies were sent individually back to those shareholders who asked the question. If you do not actively ask the question then you remained uninformed. That was the process last time so I do not expect it to be different (such as publishing the Q&A on the website).

Fair point Danno.
Perhaps Debt and Equity based on a higher share price, knowing cashflow coming in 2024. (Our major shareholders are too committed to see this fail).
Or takeover in 2022 by cash-rich partner (New Age / Dangote?)? - particularly if we have success at Matanda. Or even sale of GDC, but not Matanda?
But agreed - VOG as it stands needs a power deal (within 2 years?) to provide sufficient cash if it is to make headway, even survive.
Again, it is the big ticket items that we are gambling on coming -in (West Med, Kermekol, Etinde/Aksa, Matanda farmout and drill success, Insurance claim, RSM arbitration success with fees returned) that will keep this company going whilst we build the business. There is also a stated wish to diversify from Cameroon, once built. If the management is good enough to get us through this very tricky period, then I am highly likely to follow them into the next venture.

Q1 2022 FID
https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/africa/ep-africa/336970/new-age-cameroon-2024/

He means this company: http://www.savannah-osc.com/en/
As said before, it almost looks like a shell company (Reminds me of the Globo scam when they were getting many large orders in from fake companies) or something put together hurriedly - but somebody did do the drilling, so not completely fake, but not done very well, and at considerable expense. Something not right here. Hopefully Roy has a clawback on CHL payments if this means reimbursing RSM for overbilling. Too, if it somehow damages our insurance claim. Time will tell.

Some useful corrections from rayfenn (thank you):

- 'Rayfenn's been estimating $10-15m on West Med. Don't know why. No news given on value by the company, but clearly it is of value if a company was given 'exclusivity to conclude a deal' (lapsed end of May). Not cheap to conduct due process, and to continue to negotiate. So worth something to someone - hopefully!'
The figure above comes from a very good source. The Insurance claim is for $26 million I recall + remedial costs of 4 million + 6.3 million. The drilling company used on 107 and 108 was Savannah and they did not do 105 and 106 drills.'

Rayfenn's been estimating $10-15m on West Med. Don't know why. No news given on value by the company, but clearly it is of value if a company was given 'exclusivity to conclude a deal' (lapsed end of May). Not cheap to conduct due process, and to continue to negotiate. So worth something to someone - hopefully!

Being 'meritorious' and getting money out of the drilling company are not the same thing, MT.
If I recall correctly, this is the same drilling company that is causing the stink for the RSM arbitration on wells 106/7? And perhaps tied into Foo's peculiar dealings? (It would not surprise me if we have some clawback clause in the CHL settlement that is dependent on the RSM arbitration findings?).
All written off the top of my head, so worth checking more carefully i.e. don't take my word for it.

not the 'cost', the amount to be claimed - you get my drift?

Agreed, Rec. That's why its 'meritorious'. This report today for the first time gives us the cost of the drill, and presumably the cost of the insurance claim.