Member Info for Happyhaddock

"what happens when they adjust it?"

If by "it" you mean the mkt cap referred to in your title then UFO don't directly control it, it is controlled by us the share holders, the more we are willing to pay to obtain those shares the more the mkt cap goes up, the only direct control UFO have is in issuing more shares which in theory dilutes the value of those we own so that folk are willing to pay less for them.

In directly of course UFO want to make the company more valuable and profitable so that we are all willing to pay more for the shares which is what drives up the mkt cap.

This really is basic stuff which you should understand, so if I've misunderstood the question and stated the bleedin' obvious then my apologies .

HH

fingers crossed you are correct about locals being in the know and that there is a real reason for this going up now, and that it's not just some short lived response to a bit of attention from being on the telly.

Long term we all know this is worth more than the current SP, however we also know that SGZ can really take the biscuit for redefining "long term". They must eventually reach a point where they run out of new problems and delays to overcome, but given the move to a greener future do you think they may start recycling some of the old problems?

Max - Thanks for the response, and thanks generally for keeping all your posts more factually based with information people can go away and verify for themselves.

I'd already picked up on the real value of DSO being the lack of processing costs but I'd not heard BBG's comments about his specific interest in kalgan.... So basically at this early stage Han**** is an area that can't really be "calculated" in to any valuation because of lack of meaningful data, but the few preliminary numbers we do have resulted in awful lot of good feeling that suggests when the data does come through it should be a great addition to the large amounts of ore at Brockman.

Roll on the first drill results from our iron ore tenements!

Cheers

HH

@ Max111 - the following isn't meant as criticism or any personal attack, just a genuine question from someone who has invested here long term more for the silver than the iron but who is recognising that the iron may be the bigger play in the short term.

You keep citing that turner pope have based their valuations on "only" 5Mt of ore at the Han**** range. This is true and written clearly in their evaluation for all to read, but what makes you think there is likely to be much more than this? Most of what I have read suggests that it is the Brockman part of our iron ore tenements where the real quantities lie and turner pope have already factored in much greater quantities of ore for this part of their valuation.

I'm wondering if I've missed something about the Han**** range?

Cheers

HH

You ask what if it does go below 1p... well I'd guess it will be a psychologically important level at which the "weak willed" give in...

Whether they "give in" and sell up or "give in" and raid the piggy bank for yet another top-up they said they really wouldn't do again is a different matter!

The hardest thing is always to trade the fundamentals rather than the SP... As Buffet famously said "Value is what you get whilst price is what you pay"

If you believe that nothing about the company is worse now than it was earlier, then a lower SP is simply a better value purchase.

Whatever we think of FIAT currency, we still tend to view prices through the eyes of FIAT currency with the US$ dominating discussions of global finance. With my background in archaeology and an interest in early economics I perhaps think differently about currency than most, so I'll just put out the following for consideration, either as relevant fact or arcane trivia.

Over several thousand years of human history any society advanced enough to be called "civilised" has payed wages, collected some form of taxation, and therefore kept some sort of financial records, where silver has been the most common form of coinage for paying both wages and taxes. Thousands of years of history across several continents show that with very few exceptions the average daily wage falls within the range of 2g - 4g of relatively pure silver.

In the modern world we see widely varying economies in different countries, with the poorest countries having an average daily wage of US$4 and the wealthiest having a daily average of US$400, globally the median daily wage is about US$50

If we revert to a historic average and say that a daily wage should be about 3g of silver and that the global average daily wage is currently about US$50 then that equates to a silver price of roughly US$16/g or about US$500/oz.

Is this in any way relevant to modern economics... who knows? It is however interesting food for thought.

HH

I too suspect that we may well see another overshoot some time soon as this is a highly followed and discussed share where the current SP shows many have clearly sold out since the last bout of exuberance. However where many have spoken of the potential of "good news" to push the price up, I do feel that so much is already expected and priced in.

My gut feeling (and I say this as someone whose timing is invariably wrong) is that any overshoot will likely come out of nowhere to surprise folks and be a self fulfilling prophecy driven simply by momentum and FOMO once enough feel news is imminent, the bigger any spike the more likely that SP is to correct back downwards upon actual receipt of "expected news".

Over time then goods news should always result in a succession of higher highs and higher lows, but says nothing about volatility along the way.

HH

OK folks if my poor timing is anything to go by then prepare for the share price to lurch erratically and kick me in the butt! Or alternatively for the share price to pretty much stop moving altogether!

That is to say the bulk of my equities are held long term in an ISA where UFO forms the bulk of the shares in that ISA. I do however have a separate account for "short term" trading shares (which at 6-12months typical hold most would still call long term) where I try to make enough profit each year to contribute to the next year's annual ISA allowance. More out of academic curiosity than expectations of making a profit I have just set an automated day trading plan to range buy/sell a tiny percentage of my admittedly modest additional holding of UFO shares I hold in this secondary account.

Even if it does "pay-off" the profit on each trade will be pitifully small, but from an intellectual stand point I just wanted to prove to myself that I am reading these daily fluctuations correctly without it costing my anything significant when I'm proved wrong.

HH

Of course such day trading is all about having confidence in your timing, and I know mine stinks...

Hindsight is great thing and it is easy to look back at this repeating daily pattern and imagine the gains you could have made with successive daily buys/sells... but as they say "past performance" and all that...

I know with my luck the moment I sold then something would happen to drive up the price and I'd be either locked out or forced to buy back a diminished holding.

Its just frustrating to watch and accurately predict these small fluctuations repeatedly occurring day after day and have to keep reminding yourself to not do anything out of impatience.... In the grand scheme of things I am hopeful that when we look back in a few years then six months of drifting in the doldrums will not be the defining story of UFO.

HH

I know there are many conspiracy theorists out there who will claim manipulation or foul play, and many others who would respond by calling them tinfoil hat wearing de-rampers, so I'm deliberately offering no attempt at an explanation... the following is just an observation;

UFO's share price has been trading in a narrow window for a few months now, but it is becoming striking how many times that the price can appear at the lower end of the range during the day, but if you check again in the evening it has closed in after hours trading at the higher end, only to quickly drop again once the markets open the next morning.

All told the SP has been going nowhere, but for those able to actually sell at the higher "after hours" price, buying back again the next day at a lower price should offer just enough difference to cover the spread between bid and ask and still make a profit, or alternatively grow a small holding into a larger one.

I'm not a day trader myself as my timing stinks, so I'm just going to patiently wait it out confident that in three to five years time the SP should be way above where it is now.

HH

jemchipsa... as I think has been established it is not to much that what you say is "wrong" it is simply that you have an odd way of expressing a sentiment everybody accepts as obvious...

A mkt cap isn't so much strong or weak it, is "high" or "low". Even a low mkt cap can "cope" just fine with a high number of shares, it simply does so by resulting in a low share price.

I think everybody here understands what your are trying to say, it's just that most are trying to convey the fact that it is the mkt cap that drives the share price, not the share price that drives the mkt cap.

HH

I've not read all the way back through this somewhat comedic rant where it seems everyone is seemingly arguing the same point about something so fundamental we all should know it any way... but here s another statement of the obvious...

Share price isn't an absolute "thing" in its own right it is a product of a companies total value (ie mkt cap) divided by the number of parts that value is divided into (the number of shares in existence)

If a company grows in value it either results in the share price increasing, or the company being able to issue more shares without devaluing those already in existence. With big blue-chip companies we almost invariably expect the former response, with small junior miners lacking any means of generating revenue the latter is the case, and all to often driven in reverse... that is to say the company sells new shares to raise capital hoping to increase the value of the company enough to avoid the value of existing shares dropping.

HH

I know there are some VERY long term holders here, where I've been around long enough to see my own holdings double in value only to collapse back to now show a significant paper loss.

I was willing to ride out a few more months delays and a bumpy transition from merely talking about having an operational mine to actually producing gold to sell but todays change of BOD did surprise me and wasn't something I'd factored into my thinking.

In part and long term I feel the change of management should be positive as we transition from explorer to producer, but I sense that short term it may only inflict more pain on us share holders.

This has definitely been a company to test the patience of its investors but do others predict we'll all become geriatric old pensioners before this actually becomes the good news story that is clearly in its future at some point?

HH

Seems that TP's brokers report is a cautious estimate of what may constitute a sensible share price as things stand today.

That is to say you have to apply heavy discounts on future potential for the very fact it is "future potential" not current fact. Private investor hype always builds around where the share price may go in the future but is less realtic about where things may be at the current moment.

To my mind I see this company with a future billion pound mkt cap, the difficulty is gauging whether it takes it five years tens years or more to get there. For the time being a low end estimate of £40m Mkt cap seems very fair even if it doesn't excite folks because the share price is already more or less in line with that.

HH

as will ever be the case there is always talk about the SP going up because good news is expected.

I have very positive views about UFO as a long term investment, where it is the most dominant position in my own portfolio having held since the SP was just one tenth of a penny. However I've previously said I don't expect goods news to be a rocket under the share price as some predict. What we see today may just be the start of a a move up on expectations that news is due any time soon, but there is always the old chestnut of "buy the rumour - sell the fact". You don't have to look too far afield in the junior mining sector even today to see extreme examples of share prices falling on good news, presumably to drift a while awaiting a run up before the next "good news". So long as the pre-news climb always exceeds the post-news drop all is well in the long run.

I hope I am wrong and that the SP will climb after news is released, but experience suggests any significant move up we see is likely to be between now and that news being released, not after.

HH

jedster - I've periodically taken a look at EUZ but have not been able to persuade myself there is enough going on to put my cash into it... though I will admit to having looked into it at least four times over the last six months so it must have something about it to maintain that curiosity. ... hope it does well for you in the future.

I can't claim to know about Castillo which suggests it may not be listed on the London exchange, or perhaps it is simply something that as escaped my attention?

HH

maidit 308 - many thanks, though what you say is pretty much applicable to any mineral explorer on AIM.

I'm basically in a position of being somewhat of a victim of my own success where what was recently a well balanced portfolio has become anything but due to the meteoric rise of a few speculative punts in tiny mineral explorers. Not that I'm complaining about multiple multi-baggers. Consequently just a couple of these highly speculative low mkt cap companies now make up more than 50% of my portfolio, a situation that I need to redress and de-risk by redistributing funds into a more diverse range of investments... but I'm always looking out for more of the penny shares that may make it to the big time.

I like the look of TYM but want to dig a bit further into it's finances before committing to any investment.

HH

Hi, new to this board and not at all knowledgeable about TYM so I'm just starting some early research with a view to investing. I am however reasonably well versed in, and have enjoyed a fair return from, various other investments in the junior mining/explorers sector.

My general approach is to try get in early with explorers with a very low mkt cap and then give them plenty of time to "do their thing" rather than trade in and out on short term momentum.

TYM definitely fits my early stage and low mkt cap investing interests. It also looks to have a diverse range of metals/projects in its portfolio which appeals and all in "safe" locations but I'm curious about what folk here feel about its cash position. Placements and dilution are par for the course in this sector but are TYM spread too thinly to deal with all they have on their plate? Are there certain of their projects that seem to be the main focus of the company's attention or any source of potential income looming on the horizon?

I'm sure folk here wouldn't have invested if they didn't believe in the company's future prospects, but if anyone would be willing to offer a little insight into why they feel TYM to be worth a punt it would be much appreciated.

HH

starbright , thanks for the link, it is for info like that that I check this board, though all too often there is little by way of "research"" that gets mentioned here , and at times the things people post are little more than petty childish squabbles.
So, thanks again for the link to what looks like a potentially interesting read of something I hadn't previously seen already.

HH

944 turbo.. I'm no expert on such calculations and whilst it would be great to think our iron ore could propel the share price close to £1, your valuations seem to assume all the value is instantly achievable.

By and large mining is a slow business and extracting close to quarter of a billion tons of ore is likely to spread over years. Different folk allow for this fact in valuations in very different ways and I'm not going to pretend one number is any better than another as so much of this discussion is hypothetical, but I think I'm perhaps a more cautious individual liable to go more along with normbeef's thinking that if/when we get some sort of deal on our iron... whatever that deal may be... that it's impact on our SP is likely to be closer to 10p than £1.

However I am naturally more cautious so would rather underestimate and be pleasantly surprised in the future rather than disappointed.

HH