Member Info for Happyhaddock

there's definitely a whiff of something ... fear you say?

For the last few months the junior mining/explorers have all been drifting slowly down/sideways ... investor sentiment on many Bulletin Boards here is at a low, the (temporary?) rise in bonds yields isn't helping gold prices and all in all folks are getting impatient for goods news where demand for lab. services and covid have held things up for many companies that are actively busy with live exploration/drilling projects.

ECR is no different, just remind yourself as to why you invested in the first place, consider how long it takes for projects to progress to becoming functioning active mines and ask does what's happening at the moment really make a big difference to the bigger picture? Have the fundamentals of the company actually changed? Have the macro economic factors changed?

If the only thing that has changed is fickle sentiment isn't it worth just hunkering down for a short while whilst this passes?

Stiff upper lip chaps as someone once said!

there were far fewer shares in existence when it hit those old highs, however there were also far fewer pound/euros in existence.

They will do whatever you want them to do, they are special that way in that you can't actually see them, you have to imagine what they look like!

I suppose so --- anybody want buy a digital tulip?

I've just read that:

"Twitter founder Jack Dorsey’s first tweet has been bought for an equivalent US$2.9m (£2.1m) by a Malaysia-based businessman. Sina Estavi, the buyer, said it was like buying a Mona Lisa painting. He paid for it with the cryptocurrency Ether."

When people are using virtual currencies to pay for intangible s**t of no "use" what hope is there for those of who still hope to find real value in a company seeking to produce real resources for making real stuff.

The future really is a strange new world!

@crossFyre - the more hype builds the more forward looking people become and the more future potential is applied to current sentiment. Something is worth only what others will pay for it

Only you can decide how much in advance you want to start pricing in and paying for future gains. Clearly the market felt a lot of future value was worth pricing in, then the market changed it's mind and decided those returns were too far in the future to be worth paying for now... that's the fickle market.

Profiting is about being just a little ahead of the herd, but no so far ahead as to leave your money twiddling it's thumbs.

Judging the behaviour of the herd can be more important than judging the activities of the underlying company.

@mapp do you really believe there are enough "shorters "out there betting against price of a minor AIM listed company like UFO?

Sure in a volatile share there will be plenty who jump in and out with changes in sentiment and sell spikes to take quick profits exaggerating the spikes up and down, but I am skeptical that there will be any significant money being used to formally short this little share in the way big markets like FOREX are bet against.

I think target prices have to be linked to timescales, and yet AIM is a very volatile market where far more happens based upon sentiment and hype than by reasoning and where prices are often disconnected from underlying value.

Pretty much any "calculation" of future value is based upon estimates of "potential" discounted by "estimates" of risk, and as such are more "finger in the air" than mathematical data.

Beyond trying to "estimate" if prices are more likely to go up or down in the long term I think putting actual numbers on SP is fraught with difficulty...

best bet is to look for companies that you believe have interesting projects in the pipeline yet where sentiment looks poor.

To my mind UFO fits that ideal much more at the moment than it did six months ago, as the projects are as good as ever but sentiment is down.

silver certainly is a coiled spring, but one with a hefty weight holding it squashed flat for the time being

the real question in my mind is which is going to be the dominant force unleashing it, industrial demand, or monetary demand as a safe haven asset... I suspect that we'll need to see bigger gains in gold prices before monetary demand for silver really kicks off and that it a s such it may be growing industrial demand that supply cannot fully meet that starts to lift the price. Either way the end result seems inevitable, as does the wait for it to finally break free.

EWT98 - I'm with you on the fact that a big move in silver could lead to a massive move in UFO... that's the primary reason I'm here, I just don't see such a move in silver as imminent, I'm more inclined to think that may be another 1-3 years away...

However the wonderful thing about silver is that it is so unpredictable due to the fanatical following it has, so were the price to double tomorrow I wouldn't be that surprised as there is growing pressure to move the silver price upwards.

normbeef - like you I carry a very low average so I'll still be showing a paper profit even at half the current SP, though as you say it is difficult to remain immune to such an attack on price , as since last October the SP drop has costs me (on paper at least) the equivalent of well over a year's wages.

I try not to get frustrated with those who bail out and sell as it is their free choice to do so but having massively over shot in price when spiking up , we now seem to be doing the same on the way down which explains why many folk don't like holding AIM shares as long term investments and prefer to trade them for small short term gains.

Clearly every investor/trader has different goals and expectations.

The junior mining/exploration sector as whole has somewhat drifted in a lackluster fashion over the last few months, where delays due to increased demand for drilling/lab services have been compounded by covid. Plus certain individual companies have had additional delays specific to their own circumstances.

UFO have put out a statement/presentation today outlining (re-stating?) their future plans where the general consensus seems to be that while the future prospects are good there was nothing new to report, and that in itself seems to have been taken as bad news as folk seemingly want to know just how soon we will have overcome delays in the information we are expecting.

The drop in SP can only be down to things not moving quickly enough for investors rather than our resources suddenly changing, so are folk here willing to put any numbers to the sort of timescale of progression they are expecting or would deem acceptable.

My own way of thinking is that we are not likely to be getting good news to really drive up the Share price until the second half of the year, unless we are much closer to a JV than anybody has so far hinted at. I expect positive drill results will help the price but not to the radical extremes others have suggested and I'm not expecting them imminently.

I'm curious if others view such timescales as a negative or positive in their own way of thinking, because to me another 2-3 months drifting sideways doesn't seem long at all in terms of my overall expectations for UFO, and if I am wrong things may pick up sooner.

Curious to note that the mid-point or reported share price is significantly below both the bid and ask price.

Does anybody know of a legitimate reason how this can come about, or is it simply a case of automated systems screwing things up and not accurately reporting data?

Boyzer, I get what you are saying but Bill has only been with Alien a modestly short time and in that period the SP has gone up massively (about ten fold just in the last 12months) .

to my mind that is delivering something very substantial, and I suspect if we look at the SP in another 12months it will have shown a very substantial increase from where we are today. Nothing moves up in straight line and AIM is more volatile than other markets, but the broader picture seems positive even if the last few months have been flat. There are only so many ways of saying external factors beyond our control have delayed us and so we don't currently have any news, and perhaps Bill doesn't need to keep repeating the message, but it is not as if the delays are uniquely of our own making or due to poor leadership.

excuse the ignorance as folk obviously means something different by the expression, but isn't the expression of "jam tomorrow" the very reason we all invest...

If we believe a company will offer us more in the future than it does today then we invest, if we believe it will be no different in the future, then we don't invest... I suppose it can only be a matter of how far forward we are looking and if folk really do mean "tomorrow"

I'm not sure how circular and self supporting this all gets ... but you start checking SGZ's share price to find out if the weather is appropriate for mowing the lawn!

If the new presentation combined with the price drop below 1p isn't a combined "come and buy me" then I don't know what is...

sorry that sounded far too "rampy" but just look at the long term potential for this company and what a little patient waiting could deliver a couple of years from now.

livestock - I don't dispute that -

I really wonder if the "modern" generation would have the same attitudes to investing if they had to go back to looking up facts in old newspapers at the local library or writing to a company for a prospectus. If trading on the "latest" price news meant looking up yesterdays prices printed in today's newspaper and then telephoning a broker to make a trade .

We'd probably all be better off to some extent if we couldn't effortlessly influence a wide range of total strangers... the very convenience of the inter-net is, in many ways, its biggest inconvenience.

basically a statement to ask the impatient to be patient and stop complaining about delayed news ... so naturally enough the impatient complain about being asked not to complain whilst they wait for any news of substance.

.... the internet really ahs reduced us all to a "I want it now" culture