Member Info for Happyhaddock

The internet certainly allows large numbers of people worldwide to act in unison.

Whether they are all taking on the big bosses or playing into the hands of those big bosses is another question.

All I know is that for every quid I make off silver prices going up JP Morgan will be making several million.

I think there are very few certainties with silver prices but I think two things we can be sure of

1)It attracts a huge number of fanatical supporters who have spent decades claiming the price will shoot to the moon if allowed to find a fair price, to date, despite a few sudden and volatile lurches up and down it still hasn't.

2)It attracts a huge number of detractors that claim its supporters are deluded tin foil hat wearing rainbow chasers. Detractors who to date have been largely accurate in having said the price isn't going to them moon.

Like many who have been stacking silver for years (decades?) I have some curiosity as to what if anything will come of the latest action to try and squeeze silver but really don't expect to see any major effect in the short term.

There is however an irony that the biggest winner from any price move upwards is is going to be those banks who have already built the largest physical holdings on record. So for those who like their tinfoil hatted conspiracies - have you heard the one about JP Morgan using puppets to start a retail silver squeeze movement under the pretense of sticking it to the manipulative/shorting bullion banks?

Istie - "Politicians use statistics like a drunk uses a lamp post, more for support than illumination". - I really like that quote all the more for the fact it feels like an old chestnut and yet is entirely new to me.

As for a prediction for the SP in a months time - we are due a lot of news and sentiment suggests folk are getting excited about something building. However I always try to avoid acting on sentiment so I'll go with exactly what I said last time, that is;

The only prediction I'd offer with any certainty is that it will be somewhere between a little and a lot, and that the safest call is to say it will fluctuate up and down a bit but end up more or less where it is now.

At some point I do expect good news to hit and things to go crazy as we know how volatile this share can be both going up and coming down, it's just that things always seem to take longer to happen than others expect or want so I'm not relying on that good news arriving next month.

correction - meant to write

2) that ratio can change by equities collapsing...

it's all in the reading of that chart - it merely suggests that the ratio of silver to equities might increase;

1) history doesn't have to repeat and do what a chart suggests.
2) that ratio can drop by equities collapsing whilst silver does nothing or simply falls more slowly.

It could be used to argue that equities are due a big crash.

Now for the record I am heavily invested in silver as I do think it will do well for me, along with the silver mining equities I am invested in... I merely point out that you can produce charts to make all sorts of arguments as so much is down to how you wish to read them.

EWT-98 we seem to keep cropping up in the same places saying the same things about various junior explorers - sentiment is against the whole sector because of delayed news and backed up assay results.

As you point out when the fundamentals haven't changed but sentiment has pushed the price down it offers a chance to top up. Myself I topped up here when it dropped below 20p and have been surprised to see it dip even further, but once the delays are cleared and we start getting results it's hard to imagine this holding such low prices.

isn't forgetting the specialist skill of goldfish?

many juniors are drifting slowly down/sideways simply due to delayed news.

it isn't pleasant to experience but it doesn't have to be a reflection on the fundamentals of OMI. Things will presumably turn around once we start getting more good news to report and the sector gets on top of its delays.

"Might be the 'haddock' that suggests a coastal life"

may or may not have been this board but I'd mentioned before of my connection with having done work years ago for the national fishing heritage centre, but the nick name which later became an on line handle goes back beyond then.

@silverhorse - as it happens yes I do - I walk the dog along the prom twice a day.

have we encountered one another before on some other on-line forum as it seems a very specific question to ask at random?

@ Napthman - when it comes to silver I've plenty of patience have seen to value of my holdings go down and up a lot over the last decade or more.

As for losses on equities, just in the last 6 months I've seen a paper loss equivalent to twice my typical yearly wage which isn't easy to stomach, indeed I lost half of that (equiv to one years wage) in just one really bad week. However, on the plus side that loss was taken on an even bigger paper profit, so even allowing for some dreadful moves down in the last few months I'm still up on paper by more than 50% over the last 12 months. Of course the current prices aren't really that relevant as I'd no plans to be selling now anyway.

Little of the change in prices has anything to do with the fundamentals of the 16 companies that make up my portfolio, almost all of it to do with fickle sentiment that can both over inflate and then crash prices.

@silverhorse - I wish you well with your investments and hope your "gut feeling" doesn't let you down.

I would however suggest that in the current economic climate believing anything about the future to be certain seems a courageous move.

Wolfy - get used to the Aroma - it's the natural perfume of AIM

Well I think we can take as positive news the fact we are now up and running and do have an end product to ship out the door.

As others have pointed out the glaring omission is any detail about just how much we are producing... after all we produced a gold pour back in November. Hopefully with time we'll get some actual numbers.

@Silverhorse - it's not for anybody else to tell you what to say, Many here share your optimism but there are also plenty here willing to call out those who state opinion as fact.

I may be misjudging you, and if so I apologize in advance, but the whole Reddit and Robinhood movement has brought a lot of very young investors to the market. Youngsters who may have made a quick buck on the recent market frothiness, and who with the arrogance of youth feel invincible. The way you write on this boards hints you may be one such youngster who has only invested in a rising market. Over time markets have a tendency to chew up and spit out such people, and in some respects the best (if most expensive) way to learn is to get a such a spanking.

However as a wise man once said "we all have to learn from our own mistakes, but it is better if you can learn from those who have already made those mistakes."

I'm not suggesting that UFO itself is a bad case of ramping, but we also need to be aware that any company is always going to market itself. It may be under stricter rules about what it can say than private investors talking about the company, but some companies are obviously worse than others at ramping their own SP. Again it all comes down to reporting what are definite facts and what is merely pointing out "tangential" or "peripheral" information in the hope others start inferring things.

Since this is the UFO board I'd cite the number of links they have made to various articles about different commodity prices and current demand for these commodities. Had we been at the point of actually mining these commodities then this information may be said to have a significant impact upon UFO's profits. As things stand it is just another means of creating positive sentiment in the hope of moving up the SP.

It is not that the information is irrelevant to the longer term prospects of the company, but its significance to the current share price is perhaps not as great as some would want us to judge it.

@ silverhorse - "Simple fact when news is out shares will be around 3p - with potential of 6p or more"

I'd dispute the first point, the share price will be whatever it is dependent upon how good or bad the news is, we have to wait to find out.

As for the second point, I fully agree the potential is there to easily exceed 6p (hence my reason for investing here) , but this is again dependent upon actually getting the news we expect, where the only cause of disappointment is expectation.

The more we expect the greater the likelihood of being disappointed and the more the share price moves on volatile sentiment rather than reasoned facts.

@EWT98 - A very sound a well reasoned statement , and in many respects outlines why I have started spending time on Boards like this;

I can find out all I need to know about the company from the company itself. The thing I know I know least about, and where I make the worst judgements, is how, in the short term, other people's illogical sentiment can completely screw up a rational investment judgement.

If I can learn anything about how other investors think then I can become a better investor myself. It might not change much about how I invest as I don't trade short term, but being able to predict and anticipate other people's irrationality does make it easier to not react at times when there is nothing real to react to.

@ JMT - that was kind of my thinking - that any effect of increased silver buying from small private investors is more likely to be slow and cumulative than anything immediately felt.

I've held a reasonable potion in FRES for some while.

The cheaper it gets the more appealing it looks for a top up, it's just at the moment whilst the narrative is down I don't see what is going to change sentiment and so I find myself sitting watching and thinking it may be wise to wait longer and top up at an even lower price.

In the long run I doubt I'd regret buying more at current prices, but it somehow seems daft to when I fear it may be cheaper tomorrow. Does anybody here think the so called "round two of the silver squeeze" destined to take place in a few days will actually be allowed to have any impact on spot prices such that sentiment may return to silver miners?