Member Info for Happyhaddock

@Bbb - do you want to check your decimal places you may be out by an order of magnitude, not that it changes the point you are making.

"But we can live in hope that the stellar RNS is on its way"

we are certainly due plenty of news on many fronts, but I'd probably be more hopeful of the news being good than the news being imminent.

However I'll gladly be proved wrong if we do get a stonker of an RNS tomorrow that drives the price up several pence.

Well I know very little about Phillip Day so I probable shouldn't judge upon first impressions, but he came across as a down to earth hands-on guy (Aussie) more than a corporate suit.

If true I'm pretty sure he will have banged a few heads , demanded information and then sighed with exasperation (or uttered a few expletives) if he realised staff simply didn't have the knowledge/info he felt important. I'll admit to being a little surprised that we didn't get some sort of statement from him with in a week or two of taking charge. Waiting almost four weeks for a vague statement simply reinforces my belief he's had to do more for himself to simply find out what state the company is in and/or get staff working hard to get that info.

I think what will be telling is what he chooses to tell the public and shareholders once he has enough info to properly calculate timings and costs to get back on track.

"Some info must have leaked and there’s a bandwagon gathering"

possible, but it is equally possible that nothing is imminent and that folk are creating some action simply by second guessing what might be happening and reinforcing their beliefs as more people jump in thinking something must be just about to happen in order for the price to move up like this.

If we get some clear news and facts then the price rise may be justified and may stick, if we don't then it may be nothing more than another of the little price spikes we've experienced over the last six months that came from no where and equally quickly went back to no where.

Long term we all know the prospects are good, short term we are simply guessing about what drives daily sentiment.

well the spread certainly gives the impression something interesting is going on, though where this will lead is not a an absolute given.

I am fortunate in that I didn't buy in anywhere near the £6 mark, I got in during the very quiet lows and averaged up to about 80p. There are a long term holders here whose sentiment is not so fickle, but for this to take off we do need to draw in (back?) more of the fickle money, and more importantly give them a reason to stay put once invested.

Fundamentally I still feel the same great story remains, but for the time being it is somewhat lost among the mess that needs clarifying and resolving. I don't believe resolving the problems will be so "uneconomic" as to kill the whole project, but without more information we won't know how detrimental to the financial situation it will be which is reason enough for those not invested to sit on the sidelines and watch a little longer.

I confidently predict it will be well over 3p by the end of "a" month, I'm just less confident about which month.

Much as I don't and won't give much heed to fickle sentiment in terms of my own investment decisions, let us not forget how fickle sentiment can be and how quickly things "can" turn around for no obvious reason.

There are many investors who have very short time frames and attention spans. At this point I'm not sure what bit of good news SGZ could pull out of the bag, but AIM is a place where prices can be very volatile in both directions.

The current share price may be bad for those that bought at close to a pound (or even higher), but sub 50p is a good entry for new investors should there be a whiff of good news down the line.

@ Starbright - there is definitely some real truth to what you say - if the deep fundamentals change enough to risk a lot of your capital then you do have to recognise that and be willing to call it a day and move on ...

I suppose my point is more along the lines of only investing in things that have proved themself and where fundamentals have improved rather than got bad enough to feel I have to pull out. I think I've mentioned before that I start every investment by purchasing a small nominal amount and then mentally write it off as an instant 100% loss. I then build from there as my assumptions and research is proved accurate. I'm currently sitting on one investment that was down 65% and is still close to 50% down having never shown me any profit at any point. I'm not selling as I still believe in it long term and if I'm wrong and it does all go up in puff of smoke the total loss will still be less than the typical daily fluctuation of my whole portfolio.

@ Max "Markets are forward thinking. IMO by 2nd half of the year (July onwards) the train will have long left the station."

If that's the case then I'm fine I bought my tickets and boarded the train long ago, but to continue the analogy I've simply brought a book to read and a snack to eat just in case ... trains in this country aren't noted for running to time.

I hope you are right, the point I'm making is it doesn't really matter to me exactly when things start happening as I've got the time.

@2020 - you saying I is short, green and wrinkly? ;)

@starbright - taking a contrarian view and being out of step with the rest of the world is something that comes so effortlessly to me I find it hard to ever follow a crowd... hence the reason I've always been viewed as eccentric in everything I do, and hence the reason the thing s others have described as my greatest successes have always been achieving tasks others have declared impossible.... it's easy to be first in race nobody else will enter.

In terms of value investing then given the cyclic nature of trends then in most cases given long enough everything eventually has its day - after all even a broken clock is accurate twice a day.

@Max - just because the exclusivity agreement runs out soon don't assume we must get news about a decision on the tailings before then - we may but equally we may not.

many have spent the last six months claiming we must get this or that bit of news imminently only to be disappointed.... It's easy to get excited but that excitement doesn't change facts.

Things will happen in their own time... as a very rich man once said "The stock market is mechanism for transferring wealth from the impatient to the patient".

I may be wrong about timing, I often am, but the great thing with patience is it doesn't matter when you are wrong if you haven't felt any need to act upon your own short term predictions. However, for all the fact it may go against the prevailing view, I'll hold by my opinion that I don't expect to see any material change in UFO until the second half of this year, and if that turns out to be true then I'm happy to wait. If it happens sooner then so be it, being right or wrong won't change my actions.

@944 Turbo - Thanks for the kind words though I'm not sure everything that folk could learn from me would be beneficial.

I just take a pragmatic view that price and value are very different, fickle sentiment can move the former all over the place but with no real long term benefit. Slow patient hard work on behalf of the company improves the later.

I avoid short term trading because I know I don't understand sentiment, many do trade sentiment but few profit as most are mistaken in believing they know how sentiment will move prices. Long term facts I can process, where as I've mentioned before;

Most "news" I label as "sentiment boosting" which may increase the probability of actual fact changing news arriving in the future, very little "news" do I actually judge as useful fact on which to make/change an investment decision.

UFO is my biggest holding because it is drowning in sentiment boosting news, and has been for ages. My average purchase price however is still not much above my tenth of a penny initial buy in as little has changed factually. We ran up to and back down from 3p on sentiment and expectations which are yet to be delivered upon.... I believe that the arrival of that news is more of a when than an IF, but until then I'm content to sit tight, wait and accept that sentiment can be wrong more often than it is right..

I'll gladly be proved wrong if it is still above 0.95 at the end of the month, but having been range bound for so long and folk endlessly but incorrectly predicting good news was "imminent" the safest bet was simply to predict it would keep shuffling up and down a little whilst getting no where, ending the month where it started.

I still feel we'll need some sort of news to hold all of today's gain, and that without it the more probably direction of travel will be back down, though I'd now be surprised if that took as far down as 0.95.

"We all know how quick this one can move." - equally true in both directions and often for no obvious reason.

Hence my interest in material facts that increase the value of the company and comparatively minimal interest in the fluctuations of the SP.

@dickie - well we've been due all sorts of long delayed news for a while, so whilst the odds of getting an RNS increase day by day people having ben calling for them "tomorrow "for weeks now...

so much like sentiment, speculation about RNS's can be just as fickle... whatever does or doesn't happen tomorrow either will or won't affect the SP.

Regardless I'll still be a UFO shareholder, and expect to remain one for a few more years yet.

well much as a I am a "diamond handed" LTH who really rates UFO's future prospects, I have been noted for being somewhat unemotional and measured in response to SP movements.

Clearly UFO has been somewhat undervalued for a while and the move up is good to see, but lets remember price moves are only meaningful when there is material evidence to support and hold them... in that respect nothing has changed about the company in the last 48hrs other than sentiment.

Nevertheless any move up is a small positive, any move up that holds is a big positive.

Bbb - I suppose if I'd been here more than decade and still seen no meaningful end result I suppose I'd be more worn down and cynical.

All the best to that scarcest of phenomena - the hopeful SGZ investor.

One cynical positive is to look at the debts young people run up these days on getting a good education- SGZ may be teaching a few young folk more about the hazards of speculative investment than any university course could, and probably at a cheaper cost.

Bbb - "oh yes I can." well if that's the way you feel, but we have built a new plant, raised and spent a lot of cash and brought in new management... you might view that all as negative, and I'd agree that some of that is hard to view as anything other than negative, but I'm surprised to hear you describe it as nothing.

HH