Member Info for Happyhaddock

What is implied by a CEO and what is inferred by investors can often differ turning speculation about the future into allegations of miscommunication.

I do however think that both sides have learned. ECR seems well placed and is doing the right things, if we simply wait for formal RNS's we either will or won't be rewarded for our investment but the potential is certainly there for exciting news.

"Sentiment is more important than fundamentals on AIM in the short-term."

probably one of the greatest truths spoken here in a long time... Fundamentals always win out and reward the patient in the long run but sometime it is a very long fought battle between the two.

@mapp I would say AIM is for anybody that choses to invest in it just like the lager FTSE100,

Regardless of what you do in life you need to take care and understand what you are doing along with more general risks and those specific to the activity.

AIM is no different in that respect its volatility simply offers bigger risks and rewards than FTSE bluechips.

I don't consider myself an active trader nor a sophisticated investor. If anything although I like to think myself reasonably intelligent I consider my lack of sophistication my greatest strength. I simply research a company, and if happy enough to have bought in I ignore all the emotional noise and volatile sentiment and simply let it it get on and do its thing.

I occasionally learn something about a company from these boards, but as I have said before, primarily I am here to learn about the crazy irrationality and impatience that drives the sentiment of many other investors. The more I understand that the easier it becomes to predict and ignore. Sure the markets can surprise me , but I keep learning and am no longer surprised by as much as when I first started speculating on AIM.

when life seems jolly rotten,
and there's something you've forgotten...

Come on join in folks we need a good sing song to cheer us all up.

@smiller - if you really go in for the tinfoil hat wearing conspiracies you could claim JPMorgan have done just enough to noticeably get their knuckles rapped for holding down bullion prices.

They are now in the perfect place to legitimately step back after Basel III , reap quick profits when prices fly whilst simultaneously having the politicians and central banks over a barrel in terms of them needing the bullion banks to now squash the prices again to mask hyper inflation. JPMorgan will almost certainly have a plan that is thinking many steps ahead of the rest of us as to what they would like to extract in return for re-squashing the prices having sold out and returning to the old status quo we are only just seeing breaking.

Boy am I getting cynical in my old age!

don't mistake gold for being 8 times "harder" to mine it is approx 75 times harder to mine there is just much more effort and more people mining gold.

I've been following silver as an investment for about a decade and I've also (among many other things) an academic background in archaeology/museum work where I've studied much about early minting and particularly the bullion economy of the early medieval period.

I think people need to realise values are always relative to some other medium, it may not be your side of the equation going down it may be the other side going up. Statistically gold miners produce on average per days labour 1/75th the quantity of gold a silver miner does so you could argue that gold is now the better product at current ratios.

In short, silver was money before gold, we all know "money" is now really just Fiat currency but central banks still value and hoard gold as a means of preserving their nations wealth. For a several decades silver has had no connection with money whilst gold has retained some ethereal connection to central banks and so retains the idea of being a store of wealth.

If the people en-mass ever decide silver is money and wealth again then the price relative to others things will likely go up, probably by unimaginable amounts. Silver bugs have been predicting this will happen for decades without any change... there are now a lot more silver bugs on the planet though whether that's enough to make more than a tiny difference I don't know.

@shouston - I've said as much myself recently - the only problem is that in itself sparks more juvenile squabbling and disagreement that it is a much better board than others.

history is a great teacher... average daily wage over most of history around most of the globe has been between 2g and 4g of silver - think about how much silver may have to go up (or wages down) for people to only be paid the equivalent of approx 3g silver per day.

Similarly the average UK house for much of history could be bought for approx 150kg of silver - again points to the fact either silver needs to go up or houses down to fall back in line.

makes sense BBG should have been offered a lot more at the time he became CEO, I was only remembering the 10m issued to him prior to that.

last I recall BBG had about 10 million options at different prices but all below 0.5p

Folk obviously have very different ideas, motives and expectations when it comes to investing/trading, and much as I dislike the personal ****ging matches that erupt here, so long as people remain polite I'm open to constructive discussion about any opinion or approach be they positive or negative.

From the limited evidence from the few who have directly commented upon their own investment success/failure it does however pose somewhat of "a chicken and the egg question". It almost seems as if it is the more cautious/patient (or less optimistic?) of us in the short term (the de-ramping tribe for want of a better word) that seem to be sitting on profits, whilst those vocal about wanting to see quick price rises (the rampers?) are the ones that may be nursing loses.

Apologies for the over simplification as I've said before I really don't believe that ramping or de-ramping can have much affect on the mkt cap of a company. Plus it may well be the case that there are some whose success or failure does not align with the above view.

Nevertheless is it the loses that drive the short term impatience, or the short term impatience that delivers loss making strategies?

@ silverhorse - daft as hindsight shows it to have been I've never sold a single share in UFO.

When UFO went from 0.1 p to above 1p I thought great, when it went to 2p I thought fantastic but this is seeming a bit frothy, when it got to 3p I knew it was over priced in the short term but still well below where I ultimately felt it could get in a few years. I really didn't want to sell but told myself if it got to 4p before the end of 2020 I'd take my cash out and wait and see if I could get back in again at a better price in 2021 even with my atrociously poor timing.

The drop back to 1p cost me (in paper losses at least) at least double my typical annual wage. However I bought this as a long term speculative punt and view it as a much better investment now than I did when it was at 3p. Price is only relevant on the day you want to sell, building long term value is what interests me as I've no need of the cash or to sell up in the near term.

The reason people miss out on the biggest gains is that they fear losing the small ones.

@wolfy - experience shows that little about private investor sentiment has to be rational. Past history has also shown our share price usually drops a bit on even a good RNS which may be reason enough for a private investor(s) to sell each time and RNS is released.

I am not trying to push any particular explanation or reason, simply get others to acknowledge when there are many conclusion you can come to, the first you reach or the most obvious doesn't always have to be the right one.

@ silverhorse - whilst it may be a sub 0.5p placing it doesn't have to be - many (some?) of us bought in at 0.1p (or below) when ordinary private investors could pick up a few million shares for little expenditure. The seller may just be a regular private investor who has finally lost patience with UFO being range bound for so long and decided to get out and chase a faster moving trade elsewhere.

I've been saying for much of this year that I don't expect any significant move in UFO's share price until into the second half of 2021, and so far that has remained true, however I am happy to wait this out because I do see much long term potential for the patient.

@chris 2 - the point I am making is simply that you do yourself no favours by adopting what comes across as a hostile and antagonistic manner.

@Chris 2 - it can't have escape your notice that many here hold you (and one or two others) in contempt.

I have stated before the nobody adds credibility to the points they express if they can't express them politely. Many, myself included, try to adopt a more cautious approach that counters some of the over exuberance encountered here and I have not encountered any hostility for doing so.

Perhaps it is unintended, and perhaps you are unaware of it, but the tone of many of your posts suggests an almost triumphal celebration of the fact others aren't achieving what they hope for. I cannot speak for others but I believe that this is what others dislike about your posts, not the fact you do not share the same sense of optimism for UFO's future.

I can whole heartedly agree with the sentiment of not trying to time things - we both know that given enough time this has the potential to go much higher but as to how and when it will move, well history suggest it won't be a smooth ride.

@ max - not to be needlessly pedantic as I know no more about this than anything other Pi posting here, but there are many labs in Australia that have been backed up for many months trying to catch up on all the work queued up on their desks.

The fact the first samples are already at the lab doesn't have to equate with them already being worked upon. However as I say, I assume BBG knows more than me so we'll just have to wait and see if his 8week time scale is achieved. We've lots of folk here who get highly impatient if things don't happen on the day they expect so I'm just trying to inject my usual note of pragmatic caution.

"I wasn’t expecting a JORC resource until end of the year, but the fact that we could get it in “4-6 weeks, 6-8 weeks worst case if there is a log jam in the lab" is just incredible."

I too hadn't factored in a first JORC resource so early, and given the extent of lab delays previously encountered even 8 weeks from now seems optimistic. However BBG is the one dealing with the labs and presumably knows far more than I do so, like so many things, I'll just wait, watch and see how this pans out.