Member Info for Happyhaddock

The moderators sure have been kept occupied the last day or two delating threads from this board

@yayay - don't worry nothing can turn potential into stagnation and delay as slowly as SGZ... on some boards folk take a quick break to make a cup of tea... at SGZ you can take a break to go raise a family and comeback to find nothing has moved on.

UFO has achieved an awful lot just in the last 12months and I've no reason to believe the next 12 won't be as productive

@samiller - probably some truth in that - you can de-risk exploration by having multiple projects looking for multiple things but that runs up the costs. The other way to de-risk exploration is to build in a source of reliable income so you can afford the misses that occur en-route to making the hits.

@max I'm sure things will tick up once we formally confirm the 90% deal, so many things point to the fact its going ahead sooner rather than later, maybe even within weeks rather than months, but we're not there quite yet.

Sorry if I sound like a stuck record but we may have a little longer of range trading but I'm hopeful the second half of 2021 will be kind to the patient among us.

whilst news is fresh in folks mind another JV will be hard to come by for D2, but people have short memories and another whiff of excitement around copper and gold, a minimal bit of fresh exploratory work to remind the world why they got excited in the first place and this could spring back to life.

Maiden drilling rarely hits pay dirt on day one and many licenses go though a few hands before suddenly becoming millionaire makers. Doesn't have to be the case here but I see this as a natural step in the road, not the end of the line.

@napth - try not rise to the bait - the antagonistic types here know you are easy to provoke into name calling and hurling insults.... they'll be the ones that end up looking stupid if you can rise above their pettiness.

I've said before that I welcome any opinion positive or negative so long as politely expressed.

Whilst they probably wont want or appreciate my sympathy in one respect I do feel sorry for a certain group of folk here in that they have become held in such low regard they are attacked simply for opening their mouths even on the occasions they do try to express a valid opinion politely.

I hold the game of football in the same regard many here do Chris 2 but I'll use an analogy of encouraging folk to "play the ball not the man"

By all means question an opinion or an idea if you disagree with it but leave the personal attacks out as nobody (on both side of this tribal mud slinging match) adds credibility to their own standing by simply being rude and obnoxious.

Well I'm probably as guilty as the next man of talking a subject to death but I think we can safely say the loss of the D2 JV is a minor upset but of no great importance in the grand scheme of things.

The real issue is the progression of the Iron ore projects, we could spin a great story from the little facts we have, equally we could paint a bleak one.

End of the day it now looks far more probable that we are increasing our stake in this project(s) and we may have a useful ally in Richard Shemesian, somebody who until today I'd bet most of us had known nothing about. However we don't actually know the full ins and outs of the deal that's been done or the intentions of those who look set to end up holding so many of our shares.

On the plus side today could have been a shocker, but at the moment we are down little more than might be the case with a volatile day of no news, so the markets can't be taking things too badly.

@starbright I think our last posts crossed so thanks for the extra clarifcation.

@starbright - thanks again for the reply.

So to sum up (and please correct me if I am wrong)

We know Windfield (as a company) disposed of 220m shares in UFO
We know Bennelong acquired 220m shares in UFO
We know the owners of Windfield are set to receive another 200m shares in UFO

Plausible speculation and the balance of probability suggests that the owners of Windfield are the same as the owners of Benolong and this was an off market transfer. However we may be wrong about this.

@Starbright thanks for the reply. I agree the logical conclusion is that there will have been a simple "off market transfer".

However is it possible to prove this from the TR1s, are you asserting this as fact based upon other evidence beyond the TR1s, or simply logical inference?

TR1s include a lot of data to help join the dots but I'm never sure when I've crossed the threshold of reading a "fact" or merely implying a probable fact.

Yesterday I raised the question about how long it would take Windfield to dispose of almost quarter of a billion shares into the open market when daily liquidity is typically below 20million a day, where it is easy to imagine that it could have been weeks.

I've also been curious about the prolonged period of range trading that has gripped UFO.

Today we learn Bennelong have acquired as many shares as Windfield disposed of. The logical conclusion may be a simple transfer between holding companies all owned by the same entity, done as part of the proposed deal for UFO to acquire greater ownership of the iron ore.

Might Windfield have been selling a few million a day to dip the market price for Bennelong to buy them back the next day at a cheaper price and push the price back up in doing so... then rinse and repeat?

A profit over any simple transfer, and "an" (not necessarily "the" ) explanation for why we have been range bound for so long.

@starbright I think we share a tendency to try and critically separate logical inference from know fact.

We know that Windfield declared they have reduced their holding to 0% and that the following day Bennelong increased their holding by the amount Windfield disposed of, making it logical to assume a transfer rather than sale into the open market and subsequent purchase by a new party. However have you found a clear statement that is actually the case or are are we all surmising that this is what has happened?

well we've spent months range trading between about 0.8p and about 1.2p. Today's news is disappointing as is the drop in share price it has produced, but on a six month or 12month chart we are still just bouncing around in the noise that makes up this period of range trading.

The pessimists will cry we're doomed, the optimists will scream buying opportunity and I'll continue looking to the horizon and let this play out in its own time.

@ max - I feel this is somehow developing into the kind of squabbling I usually advocate against so shall we agree we are both arguing the same point from different sides.

After all I don't know anything about Richard Shemesian the new owner of our shares and what, if any, his connection is/was to Windfield - I can assume there is a connection but I don't know that.

@max - I agree and understand the transfer as almost certainly being part of the process of increasing our iron ore holdings which should be a good thing.

However for those that have only skim read a few points from the last few days and nothing more (of which there may be a lot and many more who maybe don't even read RNS's at all) we've lost a long term institutional investment partner in Windfield to be replaced by some new entity we don't know anything about.

Perhaps my use of the word reduction was inappropriate but I think we are both on the same page.

@ max - I know that and see it as part of a larger good news story.

The point I was making was for those that only deal in headline we've just had a TR1 RNS announcement of a major reduction in institutional shareholding.

If you want a bleak headline then on the same day we get news a major share holder has sold out we also get news our only JV partner has pulled out. That is sure to tank sentiment for those that deal in headlines.

For those that understand what is going on then I think there is no logical reason to assume the company has lost value, but every reason to assume the share price will drop for illogical reasons. The only question in my mind is will it bounce back quickly?

BB - you may be right buy you may also be applying too much logical reasoning to an illogical sentiment driven market.

"Will see where this goes today!"

Whilst we are sentiment driven it is hard to see this going anywhere other than down on opening, but in the grand scheme of things Donovan2 is one of several project UFO has, and in my opinion the one I was least interested in. I'm here for the silver and view the iron ore as a shorter term route to making us some money.

Of course to be be a contrarian we could say the SP has gone down every time we put out good news, so perhaps this is what we need to fly ;-)