Member Info for Happyhaddock

@luckyorange - not trying to squash your enthusiasm or talk down ECR, just be realistic as too much optimism tends to lead to spikes and crashes in SP when folk get disillusioned.

I've held shares here for quite some time, seen the price take me to multi-bag territory down into the red and back up to profit... That's juts part for the course with being a LTH in a small AIM listed junior explorer. I'm still here because I like what I see, but we are too far from the finishing line to know where things may end.

@5x5 likewise -happy to wait and see where silver goes having bought the majority of mine at around £12-£15/oz

"experts" have been predicting big moves on an almost monthly basis for the last decade so I don't give too much credence to such reports that expect immediate action, but the more pressure builds the greater the likelihood of an explosive overshoot of any sensible estimate of true value.

I certainly wouldn't want to be without silver over the coming years.

I think the main point to "staying grounded" is to recognise how long it actually takes for an exploration project to work through to becoming a measured resource and from there to an operational mine.

Very few succeed and even the best project experience delays and large drops en-route to success. The SP will move a lot in the short term based upon the impatience of those who don't or won't accept this, where the share price ends up in a few years time is down to what the drill finds in the ground.

@Ag19189 - seems we pretty much posted the same thing as our posts crossed.

Well there's always a big difference between hard data that actually delivers a JORC resource and early stage exploration data that merely points to possibilities and potential.

Nevertheless, early stage data that points to potential is always much better than early stage data that suggests there is nothing worthwhile to be found...

So all in all another step forward down a long road.

I've mentioned before that at current prices our iron ore looks as if it may be hugely profitable. However I've also mentioned that it seems inevitable that energy and labour costs are going up, potentially making it a lot more expensive to extract and ship in the future. There have been mixed predictions about the direction iron ore prices may head in a future stagflationary environment.

I'm not suggesting we may get to a point where our iron is actually uneconomic to extract, merely that by the time we are actually mining it, it may be wise to allow for smaller profit margins than is currently the case.

I've said many times that whilst our iron may be a quicker route to profit, in the long term I personally feel our silver may be the better play. Silver is a metal with a fanatical following whose price can explode upwards on monetary demand in a financial crisis, and so I would be more inclined to expect profit margins on mining silver to increase as margins on iron decrease. We've already got known silver so we aren't green field exploring, we've just got the potential for further exploration to grow resources. If profits on our iron ore can fund extensive exploration of our silver properties then I'd be happy.

There's always a lot of unknowns with exploration which is what makes them high risk high reward but I'm content to sit tight and ignore the short term drop in SP for the potential of longer term gains.

@rhodi "This is screaming "buy" at any sp under 1p for Multibag prospects, never mind all the gold silver and diamonds."

Have I missed something? I was never aware of us looking for, let alone finding, diamonds?

@dryland - we've all done it and bought at the wrong time and then felt we've been left with a lemon. We learn from it and make better choices the next time. (at least we hope we do.)

I feel the biggest mistake many make is not knowing whether they are an investor or a trader as the timescales you are looking for returns on heavily influence what constitutes a good price to buy in at.

@dryland - I suppose it all comes down to timing and when you bought in as it's one of my best investments - I've been averaging up to about 7p but still have more than doubled my money this year..

although that's no consolation to those who bought in at well above where we are now.

Well we've been range trading between about 0.9p and 1.2p for months awaiting any significant news which might justify re-valuing the company.

We've had quite the week with almost universal agreement the SP would dive on sentiment denting news, the real question being how far it would dive and how quickly it would bounce back?

We've seen massively increased volumes of trades but at the end of the week we are still within that 0.9-1.2p range. I suspect if we look back in a years time this week will show on charts as a largely insignificant little blip.

So whilst we are down a few percent over the last few days I'm rather pleased this has ended up being pretty much a non-event, especially given that we may now be that bit closer to getting the news we want about the iron ore.

Hopefully the second half of 2021 will be much kinder to UFO.

mineral exploration is a slow business, private investor attention span is short - doesn't usually mix well.

But as a wealthier man than I once said "the markets are a means of transferring wealth from the impatient to the patient"

I'd top-up more but I already did so when it dropped back below 20p - now we're testing 15p.

You can tell Bill is geologist who gets excited by rocks and minerals which isn't a bad thing, though I do sometimes wonder if having a partner alongside him from the BOD who can get equally excited about finances and profits might turn such interviews in to more of a useful sales pitch to regular private investors.

I personally like Bill because he isn't a salesman but I'm left with the impression at times that the interviewer rather than the interviewee is doing more to sell the company to investors.

@myavian, think about it the other way - if you had the cash in hand rather than already having the shares would you regard UFO as a good buy at well below 1p? It is certainly better value at 0.9p than at the 1.2p it was a couple of days ago.

If you wouldn't buy then that is probably an indication you should sell - I personally am still holding but what I am doing shouldn't influence your decision.

@BB as you say we have an issue of the difference between rational common sense and popular appeal.

Silver is an easy/glamourous sell emotionally whereas iron ore is comparatively dull and uninteresting. IF we can get the message out there about our iron then we should do well out of it. I do think however it is more likely to be a slow tick up in price following any RNS of a deal rather than the more explosive moves attributed to passionate silver investors.

@EWT98 - another case of LSE delaying a previous post leading to me writing pretty much what had already been said.

@BB there is a logical argument that the price of silver shouldn't affect UFO as we are so far from actually mining any. However much of the sentiment in UFO is silver related and we've seen before that a noticeable move up for silver pushes UFO with it.

Common sense says with iron our most probable first source of income we should move up (if we move at all) with iron ore price gains rather than silver

@ EWT98 I think the thing with "research" in to investor psychology is it is far more anecdotal than proper scientific research should be.

However in most cases fear is the biggest driver of most human behaviour. In investing fear of losing money tends to outweigh the greed of making money.

Most trading platforms are required to quote the percentage of their investors that lose money where the number is often well above 50% typically above 75%. However there have also been statistics showing that the majority of private investors do make a higher number of good calls than bad calls. The conclusion from that is that most private investors make tiny amounts from their good calls and hefty loses on just a few bad ones.... All comes back to fear.

When people are sitting on small profits they fear losing them and sell up early. When sitting on small loses they fear losing money and wait it out to see if things will pull back; either they do and the investor sells out a small profit, or things get worse, and worse and worse until they panic sell at a huge loss.

FOMO has very much become a common phrase these days but the fear of losing money combined with the greed of making money also applies to investing into a rising market. It is in such situations that investors seem to put aside the reasoning that prompted them to previously make good calls.

I know it is easier to say than do, but if you learn to run towards your fear rather an away from it, this may mean behaving in a very contrarian and "uncomfortable" manner but it may well be profitable... Your brain is more likely to guide you to the right choice, your emotions the wrong one.

well we are pushing the lower limit of the trading range we've stubbornly held now for several months.

I think any further drop we can take as a sign of how badly the markets have taken news of D2, if we push back up again a little then we are essentially still within the ebb and flow of general sentiment that's stopped us from doing much for the last few months.

@ Whyderamp - sadly expressing such sentiments achieves nothing, believe me as I've tried before.

Many claim to want to hold intelligent discussion but if you go by the tone of most posts what you actually have is two tribes looking for an echo chamber of confirmational bias.

It has been quite some time since UFO has seen such daily trading volumes.

last time preceded a move of about 0.4p which in turn was followed by even greater volume and a retrace back to more or less where it came from.

If you believe history has a tendency to repeat itself there may be something to learn in the above, otherwise it may simply be an irrelevant anecdote.