Member Info for hants

BZ, I've defended you in the past as sometimes you have some good input. I believe we we in BIDS together earlier this year also. But currently you're just aggravating people and I'm not sure what you are hoping to achieve.

When you decide you don't like a share anymore, just quietly move on. Don't go back onto it's bulletin board and start upsetting people. Very poor form.

With the share price at current levels and Conifer selling down, there's probably a few slightly nervous investors here. First of all, there's various reasons why Conifer might be selling down and it's not necessarily any reflection on Avactas prospects.

Secondly, the big question here is 'can Avacta actually commercialise the test?' Personally what I'm looking to see here is sales into Europe. As has been said many times, there's no market in the UK at present unless we are to become the elusive 'sovereign test' and I don't trust HMG. For anybody who is feeling nervous at present, I refer you to the follow extract from the 7th June RNS...

"We are very excited by the potential of this high-quality SARS-CoV-2 rapid antigen test and by the interest it has already attracted from potential commercial partners and distributors. We will continue to focus on its commercial roll-out and manufacturing scale-up to meet demand."

"WE WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON MANFACTURING SCALE UP TO MEET DEMAND."

At this point in time, Sir Al must surely know what the realistic level of interest is in the AffiDX test. I can't see any reason he would set himself up for immediate failure if this were not the case. He's always said supply and not demand will be the issue, and only 2 days ago he was still saying the same thing. If it weren't looking favourable, I would expect to see some management of investors expectations - as suggesting we can sell every test we can make without any sales subsequently materialising would not reflect well on him. On the basis there's been no such comments and he remains bullish about sales volumes, I'm comfortable.

Bella I would be inclined to agree with you on this. If the agency have a good working relationship with the MHRA, one would think they'll expedite. Furthermore, if it's only an error and not a total mess - I wouldn't have thought the MHRA are going to be putting us at the bottom of the pile and then looking at it again starting from scratch. They'll likely check the error has been corrected, give it another once over and we'll be back on track.

It's a shame to see another timeline slip, but hopefully this is the final thing which sits outside of Avacta's control and is likely to cause any delays. I know Sir Al has a bad rep for missing deadlines, but 14 months in and I'm yet to see anything delivered late which he could've done anything about. I always find in life that when I let something go outside of my control, it goes wrong. I'm sure that's how Sir Al is feeling at the moment too. This said, I do hope he's learnt to under promise and over deliver! The market loves that, and hates missed timescales.

To finish on a positive note, our test is about to launch! We've been told numerous times we'll sell everything we can make and I don't see any reason that won't be true. The money will be flowing in very soon...

Despite the positive wording of this RNS, I hope you do realise these results are not very good and quite some way behind the competition, who are also well ahead in terms of taking their products to market?

t4g, absolutely, I agree that HMG won't continue with Innova. The public confidence isn't there. Furthermore, another line of defence is needed and Innova just won't cut it.

It's probable, some would say certain, that the current vaccines will begin to cease working at some point soon. Whether this happens slowly and they gradually become less efficacious until topped up by boosters (which would be workable), or a significant mutation (like something along the lines of the Indian so called "double mutant" strain, or the Tanzanian strain) where the vaccines could be rapidly rendered obsolete is the big question. This would leave a gap whilst new ones were developed followed by the program being repeated again.

This could result in lockdowns again. But a robust system built around LFT's could stop this happening.

The LinkedIn tweet from a while back indicated that ODX and AVCT are connected. This fits with the AVCT and Mologic relationship. It's a fairly straight line.

If I'm right, and I think I am, CE marking and commerical launch of AffiDX is expected early May, so there's not long to wait to find out...

Megatro, the same thought crossed my mind actually. But I can't come up with a reason why Mologic would be cheaper than AffiDX. Not sure if you have done any research of Affimers (which the the reagent in the AffiDX test), they're supposed to be cost effective and relatively easy to manufacture. They're another step up from Aptamers so to speak. I think the Affimers reagents are likely to be cheaper, or at least in line with Aptamers. This is my speculation based on research, not fact, though.

Anyway... It also brings us back to the point of... why help Avacta make and a test and offer manufacturing capacity? If they were expecting to be selling their own test to HMG in vast quantities this would be a strange thing to do and wouldn't make commercial sense.

Surely there's only one reason they would offer up capacity, and that's because they expect the demand for AffiDX to be greater. If anybody else can offer a reasonable explanation for this I would be very interested.

I've raised this subject on the ODX board and it hasn't gone down too well.

I agree with you the Mologic test is better than Innova, it uses AN sampling as opposed to being a pharyngeal test dressed up as an AN test, I don't dispute what you are saying whatsoever in that regard.

However... with regards to comparable performance; here's AffiDX

"The study tested 98 positive samples (31 with Ct<26; 65 with Ct 26-30 and 2 with Ct 30-31). Avacta's rapid antigen test identified 96/98 of these correctly as positive with a 20 minutes read time resulting in a clinical sensitivity of 98.0%"

I've followed the Twitter link you sent me and looked in the comments, where there is a screenshot of the FIND report.
"Sensitivity Ct <25.... 96.4%"

So therefore Avacta are achieving a higher sensitivity which is also in mostly **samples where the virus is harder to detect.** It's doing better, in worse samples!

(Remember, the lower the PCR CT value, the easier it will be the for Lateral Flow to correctly identity the sample as positive.)

The Mologic tweet may be true in that Avacta don't have a CE mark yet (which is of course a formality and will happen), or is technically best in class because the Avacta test is S protein not N protein.

The fact is, the numbers are there for all to read and the AffiDX test is showing better performance.

So my point is this, IMO the UK Gov will either go for performance or for price. We don't know the prices of all three tests, but we can probably assume Innova will be cheapest, so that would probably be appealing from that angle.

I would guess that Mologic and AffiDX will be in the same price ballpark, which if that's the case, why would the UK Gov chooser the lesser performing test - it wouldn't make sense. Furthermore, why would Mologic help develop the test and then GAD be handing over manufacturing capacity to Avacta to make a test worse than their own - again... this wouldn't make any sense at all. What would be the benefit of doing that?! Handing over capacity to make a test which won't sell as well... crazy and irrational to believe!?

So my point is - unless another private company comes from the left field and blindsides us all... it's almost certainly going to be Innova or AffiDX. Price, or performance.

I can't see ODX manufacturing the Innova tests. Innova's are already monstrous and expanding further... ODX would be a drop in the ocean, so why bother? They probably wouldn't.

AffiDX needs to be the 'Sovereign Test' and ODX need to be making it.

To move the share price on in the short term, Avacta need to be the so called 'sovereign test' and ODX need to be making it. This is the biggest catalyst which could occur, as difficult as it may be for those with a 'football team' mentality to absorb.

This is likely to happen it seems, probably at some point in May. There will be rewards here, but IMO they won't come about in the way that many ODX holders would like.

Todays ODX RNS showed the Mologic antigen test isn't as good. Therefore, the chances of that being the so called 'Sovereign Test' arent looking high.

Confirmation bias seems to stop many people here understanding the numbers which are there for them to read. For those who have read the numbers, it's easy to see why ODX is down today. This may also be why AVCT is up, even after the closing auction last night already pushing the price up yesterday evening. The odds on for the AffiDX have increased, as Mologics test was a potential threat. Now it isn't.

For ODX, the biggest risk is AVCT not being the sovereign test, and the government going with Innova who are working on increasing their capacity. This would also hurt AVCT too, but Europe would soften that for them hopefully.

Rollyroll, if it makes you feel better the charts and tea leaves suggest that selling now and hoping for a pull back would not be a good move. We're in an ascending triangle pattern which should complete over the coming few sessions.

If we drop out the pattern that's not good, but I can't see there's much motivation to sell out at this point. The profit taking seems to have already happened from those who want to move on. So basically, a break to the downside doesn't seem likely unless we get some unexpected bad news.

We need to break above 272 ish, and we need close above that level at the end of the days trading. The traders will be in for their 10%, which should push us onwards to about 300p. There might be a slight pullback with profit taking, but even with a notable pull back 272 ish should be our new support level, where currently it is resistance.

If nothing bad happens, it's going onwards to around 300p on good news or technicals.

Bottomzup, do you think the same?

Please note: If anything happens, all of the above will go out the window as news overides charts. But in the absence of anything notable happening, that's how it should play out. Especially as the anticipation builds.

Presentation Link: https://tinyurl.com/ys2sp2kc

Likewise I can't listen, notes would be apprecaited!

From a chart perspective, it should bounce from this level so don't worry too much whats going on this morning. Share price will be up at a better level shortly.

Bitcoin price has fallen and we are following. I've bought more.

The presentation also has a Q&A, therefore one would assume that any announcement/RNS would allow enough time beforehand for investors to submit their questions and for Avacta to pick out the best ones to answer. The sell side presentation is at 9.30am, so it's not as if Al will have much spare time that morning! (I believe it's possible to submit questions live also, but the above point still stands).

I think we'll see investors hold on until tomorrow, maybe Wednesday. If we get to Thursday 8am without anything, I'm pretty certain there will be a sell off. If an RNS is coming this week, in my opinion it will land tomorrow or Wednesday.

From this level we could see 200p very quickly. Equally the same applies to 300p. It's really a 50/50 gamble this week so you need to decide what you want to do. Long term investors in from a lower level are probably comfortable enough to accept the risk and hold. Those who bought around this level and are worried about going into the red will probably think about getting out. Equally, if you're well into profit then taking your original investment off the table might not be a terrible idea.

I believe Avacta will deliver on the LFT in due course, but if we get to Thursday without anything of substance, it's going to be a bumpy ride so hold on! Investors individual decisions will come down to what their entry point was, how soon they need the money (if at all), and their appetite for risk.

TSSZ, CE marking is a self certification process. What we are looking for is results from the full scale CV. We can't really'fail' this as such. However, the market will want to see results in line with the initial data we have already been given.

I disagree this would be released 'immediately.' They're not just going to be handed a post it note which say, "Hi Al, 96.7/100, cheers!"

Avacta will want to review the data throroughly, then there's the time required to prepare an RNS. It takes time to write an RNS, because companies need to be extremely careful in terms of what is said, the wording used, and how the market could interpret it.

For all we know, Avacta could have received the data last week. No RNS doesn't mean they haven't got it.

If you can get an entry in the 140s that's as low as I can see it going. If the bitcoin price recovers between now and tomorrow morning and looks stable again, I don't think we will see less than the 150s.

This appears to be the bottom, unless there is a gap fill to the 140s. I will be extremely surprised to see it drop below that level as traders will pile in once it leaves oversold territory and the reversal is confirmed. Whilst there will be some profit taking as with all rises, it should bring us out to a higher level.

If however your strategy is buy high and sell low, then offload the lot on Monday morning...

Usual caveat of IMO etc. I'm extremely confident, though.

This is a good sign. Whatever Motley Fool says, do the opposite. They've bashed avacta numerous times over the last 12 months and look where that is now.

Motley Fool only seem to look at revenues and market cap. They always seem to forget that markets look forward, and stock picking is about working on what other people will want to buy in the future. If you wait until big revenues are published, you've probably missed the boat, at least for the big gains.

I've just picked up 10k shares. Looks like we could have a slight gap fill downwards, but even if that happens it should hold around 145. Happy to buy at this level as upside far outweighs the downside.

We should start to see some momentum as we come out of oversold.