Member Info for hants

Earlier this year Synairgen closed at 36p. There was a 7am RNS, and it opened at 106p.

It then continued all the way to 240p.

So if you weren't in, you could still have done well but would've missed out on a lot.

RD, your question is answered in the most recent Directors Talk interview. Worth having a listen.

MF, we will be on our way once the trading update arrives. It's overdue and could land any time now. My prediction was next week and I still think that's a strong possibility.

The TU should give us clarity, S and S against real patient samples, plus answers to many of the questions we have all been speculating on.

This is the final chance to buy at this level (assuming the TU isn't a disaster, which seems highly unlikely now).

Strange to see this drop back to level, but here's my take on why.

This has been a two horse race in terms of who's likely to get Government orders.

Avacta/BBI/Abingdon
Mologic/ODX

But of course, Mologic are not listed so to back that horse the best you could do was buy ODX.

It now seems that Avacta and Mologic are the same test - who knows why - maybe both were struggling and working together they could solve each other's problems.

Regardless, the point is that things have now changed and you're better off holding Avacta (assuming it is indeed their test, which seems likely). Why invest into ODX who's limitation is what they alone can reasonably manufacture, when you can invest in Avacta who's limitation is the number of manufacturers across the globe they can bring on board to manufacturer their test.

Is there an upside in ODX, yes. Is the upside in ODX fairly guaranteed - also yes.

BUT, is the upside in ODX anywhere near the upside in AVCT? In my opinion no - we are now comparing apples with oranges now.

It seems ODX is now just a manufacturer for AVCT, so why not just buy shares there instead?

ODX spiked at open and fell back. AVCT was actually 1.5% down when I first looked this morning just after market open.

What does that tell you has probably happened? ODX holders were selling out, and probably putting their money into AVCT instead.

None of this makes ODX a bad investment by any means, still stand to do better than most blue chip stocks etc! But honestly, the two shares are no longer comparable. Avacta are due to release a trading update at any moment soon and it's likely to include the S&S with real patient samples. The train will then be leaving the station. Of course, that's good for ODX too if they're going to be making it - assuming all the dots are being joined correctly and all of the above is actually true.

Just to finish this post - I've seen numerous posts on this board about Avacta not having a test and having not reached 'design freeze.' These posters are so clueless and poorly researched it's almost unbelievable.

Even a broken clock is right twice a day!

Part 2:

Logic and reason therefore suggest that either Tech Transfer has been completed, or is simply not applicable as BBI are both designer and primary manufacturer. Of course, there may need to be a TT to Abbingdon if that hasn’t already happened.

Therefore, the next LFT news we will be told is the S&S against real patient samples. At that time, even if we aren’t going to market immediately, this share is largely de-risked and you can sleep better at night. The market for LFTs isn’t going anywhere any time soon.

Avacta have always issued their trading updates in January, it’s very clear this is delayed. In my opinion, it’s highly like to be for one very simple reason – a trading update which does not provide clarity on the LFT (on which the market is focussed) will lead to negative speculation and push the share price down.

I strongly believe, in fact I’m pretty much certain, that when the trading update is released it WILL include the S&S against real patient samples, full clarity on the position and also the timeline to market.

In my opinion, if Avacta had these figures available, they would’ve issued the trading update… almost immediately, save for maybe a few days in between to review them before issuing RNS.

I won’t be checking for news next week and that’s also why I’ve not been on this board and posting anything. There’s nothing to know. I’ll start checking again every morning week after next.

Don’t wind yourselves up everyday when there’s no news. Ignore the bashers when they turn up. I’m confident the trading update will tell you everything we all want to know!

End.

Part1:

There's a lot of speculation on this board and for good reason. Here's my view on what is going on, some is fact and some is opinion based on fact. Make your own investment decisions, this is only my view.

23rd November RNS:
“The performance of the test with clinical samples will now be evaluated as a precursor to a much larger clinical study with COVID-19 patients of known viral load to determine the clinical sensitivity of the test. In parallel BBI Solutions is working to finalise and validate the manufacturing process so that the Group can carry out a full clinical validation on the final product to support the regulatory approval process. “

Then…
In the late December Director's Talk grilling, Al said "As we go into the Christmas period, I am very happy indeed with the performance of the test."

Furthermore, in the same interview he said "We are now moving into clinical testing in parallel with manufacturing scale up. We know that we have a very good test as far as laboratory samples are concerned and we are now in a position to see how that translates into real patient samples and if all goes well we will have a clear line of sight to full clinical validation and CE marking for professional use."

So to summarise, what that means is at the time of the December interview Al knew our LFT was performing extremely well against laboratory spiked samples and this step had most likely been completed. Since late December, our LFT has been in clinical testing.

Continued...

It's interesting to see the article mention Mologic/Omega and then Avacta/BBI/Abingdon.

This is what we've always believed but we've not heard about Abingdon for some time - so this is good news. Much better to have BBI and Abingdon on board with Avacta than to have Omega Diagnostics, even though they've bought more machines and an extra garden shed.

Just on quantity produced, this should make the Avacta AffiDX the primary UK lateral flow test.

The article says what we *believed* to be the case but didn't know for certain. Omega Diagnostics are posting about the article on Twitter... I can't imagine they would be actively pushing it if it contained inaccurate or misleading information.

Yes Ray we've got a test and it will be available in the coming weeks. It's called AffiDX

And I'm not sure that 7.3mil for a tie up working with Daewoong could quite be called "smoke and mirrors."

AVCT is up on it's AffyXell RNS, not testing.

And Novacyt is down 7 percent, which is odd. Very strange movements today and no obvious reason why.

If it were conclusive the share price wouldn't be at this level!

Yeah maybe Surescreen might have an AN test. But if they were close to having an AN test, why would they have continued on with designing and manufacturing a nasopharyngeal test knowing it would be immediately superseded and largely obsolete. That would be a strange waste of money and resources which could be deployed elsewhere.

I'm not saying it's impossible, but that wouldn't make sense to me.

I don't think it's possible for it to be Surescreen.

The government tender prohibited nasopharyngeal tests. It has to be anterior nasal or saliva.

Lifted this directly from Surescreens website:

*A swab is used to sample from either the nose or throat (nasopharyngeal or oropharyngeal sample) and introduced into the test cassette by suspension in a buffer solution."

Therefore IMO, Surescreen are out of the running.

Mfm, of course there's more risk with Avacta! ODX and Abingdon are manufacturers. They will have something to manufacture, whatever test it may be.

But there's MUCH more upside with Avacta. ODX and Abingdon upside is limited by their individual manufacturing capacity. Avacta can potentially have their tests made by multiple manufacturers across the globe. You're comparing an apple with a crate of oranges.

We know that Affimer reagents can be produced on scale, so that's the only limiting factor along with availability of raw materials.

Even if Avacta make a test which is a few percent lower on S and S... If it's the fastest test to produce on mass because of reagent availability then it will take the market share.

Some of you may recall the early days of Covid when reagent availability was a problem, so this has already happened and isn't just a work of fiction.

Furthermore.... The problem is with buying Omega and Abingdon is that mass testing will have a finite lifespan. Do either of those companies have a future prospect which is bigger than the Covid-19 testing opportunity? Not that I'm aware of. There will surely be a big sell off in both eventually.

Avacta however.... Well the party is only just getting started...

With Lateral flow test "pre-scale up production testing with selected UK manfufacturers" due to be completed by 31st January, it seems likely something significant is going to happen within the next two weeks.

Whether this is good or bad depends on whether BBI / Abingdon are one of the "selected UK manfacturers" - of course, the more interesting one being BBI as we understand they've had some notable involvement in re-designing our test, as per RNS.

It would seem reasonable to believe that due to it's size, BBI would be one of these mentioned manufacturers, especially due to being part of the UK-RTC - so we know a link to the UK Gov is pre-existing.

IMO it would also seem reasonable to believe that BBI wouldn't have gone to the trouble and expense of re-designing our test if they had something much better to manufacture instead.

For now, all we can do is join the dots. However, I very much think there will be news in the next two weeks, and that said news will be very exciting.

What is a rapid flow test?

Should I bring my canoe?

He seems to be expecting news within days.

Not sure of the reasoning, but hopefully we'll hear something shortly or by summer.

Peace be with you.

Could be Excalibur as that was approved for mass screening on 12th, on asymptomatic and on pre symptomatic also.

Interesting in that it was validated by lstm... So that's potentially a good sign for us I hope.

Of course, it's one thing having a good test. Being able to make enough of them is an equally big problem to overcome.

Pigster, that's interesting - but I can see it being many more than 27%

I think the vaccine will have a partly self cancelling effect, as with masks.

I believe masks work, but I don't beleive they achieve anything when used by the public due to the sense of safety they give. Before masks were introudced, people would keep their distance. It was very noticeable in day to day thinks like going into the supermarket. However, once everybody had masks on social distancing went largely out the window. There's only a minority who make a real effort to keep away now - from what I see at least (anecdotal of course).

The AZ vaccine is 62% effacious. But people are going to 'feel' like they are 100% percent protected and start to go about their lives more normally, thinking they can't catch it. Personally, based on what I've seen with the masks - I think saying 27% will immediately act as though they are protected is a wild under estimation. In my opinion it will be the marjority. This will offset a lot of the progress made by vaccination.

On a similar not, my grandmother had the Pfizer jab last week. I asked her when her second dose was booked for. She has been told they don't know... probably March because they are really busy. WHO say it should be given within 21 to 28 days of the first jab and recommending that other countries do not follow the UK's approach in an attempt to speed up the roll out.

It's naso, so not competition to us and only CE marked for professional use.

"The Panodyne SARS-COV-2 Antigen Rapid Test Kit uses a specially designed swab that is inserted into the nostril and mouth to take samples from the nasal cavity and tonsils. Measuring just 15cm, the Panodyne Antigen test kit is less invasive than other tests available. "