Member Info for hants

1998 called, it wants it's chart back

You should upgrade to Windows XP soon?

Further to Strikes excellent post, the prices of flights at the moment are eye watering. I've been trying to find a cheap trip to anywhere and there's just nothing available for good prices until after the school holidays.

In the past Ive always found there's deals to be had if you're flexible on where you go and the flight times - at the moment there's simply nothing available at all.

I'm pretty sure all the bad news is priced in here. The doom mongering about winter being bad for airlines is equally ridiculous - yes it's a less profitable time of year but it's the same every single year and is therefore priced into the share price also.

It's difficult to know whether they're buys or sells. My own trades are often labelled incorrectly. If the trade price is above the mid point it's labelled a buy, if it's below it's labelled a sell. LSE doesn't actually know what the trades are and therefore the labels are often incorrect - even more so when there's high volatility.

Of course buyers could be setting limit orders etc also so that's another factor.

Ultimately any buying around these levels should yield a good return later this year so that sounds like a perfectly good plan to me!

My usual strategy is a core holding and also a pot for swing trading. Like yourself I will accumulate shares, but to the trading pot when I feel the time is right. These will be sold, usually around 10% up if all has gone well. Quite often this can be repeated several times and yields as much gain as the core holding over the same period of time.

I very rarely take short positions and will normally just trade shares by taking long positions in companies I understand and actually want to own shares in, so that if it goes wrong I'm not stuck owning something I don't want.

Well that depends on where people bought in. Plus retail traders capitulate pretty quickly when a share price falls.

Furthermore, the nature of AIM shares is they're full of retail traders who tend to sell up during periods of no news and share price growth.

Then you've got another group of people (which is my category) who believe in a share but welcome an opportunity to sell their shares and buy them back for less.

Share price drops slowly during to impatient traders, technical support gives way creating a drop which is exaggerated by panic selling, reversal takes place once a support level holds. That's one way this might play out.

Equally, it could just continue to bounce around the 100 to 120 range as it's been doing recently.

IMO, it really depends on whether this level holds, what happens in the immediate future (probably nothing), and what happens in the wider markets.

No doubt an unpopular opinion but the chart looks a bit sketchy at the moment I would have to say. It needs to hold at this support level, otherwise there's a nasty gap downwards. Wider market looking fairly strong in light of the Government turmoil, though so hopefully be okay.

If this falls another penny or two, I think it goes to 90 fairly quickly. But there isn't strong support until about 75.

Need something positive to happen and give it a nudge back up into it's recent trading range.

It just looks at the price and whether it is closer to the bid or the offer at that moment in time. It doesn't actually know what's a buy and what's a sell - so that can't be relied upon, especially during times of high volatility. Don't worry about it, it's nothing suspicious and the BB myth that it's 'MMs playing games etc etc' is nonsense.

Markets are often irrational in the short term, however they are generally rational in the long term. AIM is especially bad as it's full of impatient retail traders looking for fast gains - which often leads to gradual erosion of a share price over time even if things are going well. There's also not enough volume to make this share move significantly.

I flew from Gatwick to Edinburgh return with EasyJet last week. Both flights were at least 90% full. The departure board at Gatwick was a sea of orange as almost every flight on there was operated by EasyJet. There weren't any cancellations showing when I was travelling in either direction, which surprised me as I expected to see some.

The departure lounge at Gatwick was unbelievably busy. I wanted a coffee but the queues were so long everywhere that I didn't bother.

We're at the mercy of the poor overall performance of the markets and abundance of bad airline press, so the fall in share price doesn't surprise me. However, the appetite to fly is clearly significant. I've gone through Gatwick dozens of times and never seen it so full.

Wouldn't want to call the bottom on this yet, but I'll continue to accumulate at these cheap prices with a view to holding into summer of next year.

Because there's share option schemes.

There's a complete disconnect but markets are not always logical in the short term. EZJ have suffered a lot of bad press recently due to flight cancellations, as have other airlines. Whilst some of it is EZJ fault, a lot of this is to do with problems at the airports, with Air Traffic Controllers and other third parties. Nevertheless, flight cancellations and airline bashing make for good headlines at this time of year.

The wider market is quite weak at the moment, EZJ is on a downtrend and sentiment is poor. It's fundamentally undervalued at this level, though. At 500 it was a bargain, at sub 400 it's as close to free money as you can get in the stock market IMO.

I think there's a strong possibly of continued bad press over the summer holidays which will suppress the share price. I'm intending to hold this into the spring or maybe summer of next year. I don't see this back at 2019 levels any time soon, but when it turns I think we could see 800 in fairly short order! 100 percent upside from the current price IMO, but continued volatility through the summer holidays no doubt.

We need to get through July/August and see a trading update on the other side and then it should be very positive thereafter I hope.

Incredibly low volumes here at present! Can't imagine it will be the case for much longer once there's a wider awareness of what Mkango are sat on.

I heard the fund managers at Blackrock check this BB at 8am every morning to see whether Sophie thinks they should sell

In my experience it's very rare to see any correlation between large buys/sells and share price movements.

I've seen it twice on this share. The first time was the drop down towards 120p for the placing in 2020. This was clearly leaked, however discussions would no doubt have been happening with prospective investors in advance so it's not too difficult to imagine how that might have happened.

The other time, the share price appeared to have been walked down to fill an order, and subsequently bounced once it printed. I forget the amount, but it was several million. Probably the largest print I've ever seen print on an AIM share. Even in that instance, it would be difficult to say for sure that it was walked down. It's equally possible there were a lot of sellers at that time and then the large print caused the bounce.

I'm pleased to see there hasn't been an uplift in the share price going into tomorrow. I doubt there will be anything particularly exciting so it wouldn't be a good thing if it were hyped - most likely it would just set us up for a fall.

No news is good news. We can fairly safely assume that everything is progressing well unless we are told otherwise. If we get a few encouraging comments on the trial, I'll be very satisfied with that.

Hi ForeverNever, how hectic was Gatwick? Any problems with security wait times or anything like that?

I'm flying Gatwick Edinburgh return with ezj in a couple of weeks time.

Thanks Bearded Dragon. Would love to know what shares you recommend at this time?

For the benefit of Jtan

EasyJet is currently c.71% hedged for fuel in H2 of FY22 at c.US$619 per metric tonne, c.49% hedged for H1 FY23 at c.US$701 and c.20% hedged for H2 FY23 at c.US$807. The spot price on 17 May 2022 was around US$1,225.

I disagree. When the Covid vaccines were announced the EZJ share price jumped up very quickly with a bull run from around 390 to 780 or thereabouts.

There is already a vaccine for monkeypox. I imagine todays drop relates to monkeypox, but comparing it to the start of the sars-cov-2 pandemic is apples and oranges IMO. Not to mention the economic situation at this time is entirely different and it probably wouldn't fair well with any more pressures placed upon it.

I spent a good amount of time yesterday trying to find some cheap flights for a solo excursion to Europe in a couple of weeks time. In the past, I've always found EasyJet will have quite a few cheap seats if you're willing to be flexible on days and take the more unpopular flight times (which I don't mind when I'm on my own). I couldn't find anything cheap which would get me both ways, just the odd inbound/outbound flight but nothing in the other direction.

There is almost nothing cheap available, and there's a decent number of flights which are fully booked. I saw prices on popular routes (such as the Greek Islands) up to over £600! Most flights are in the £150 - £400 region.

Whilst it was an unsuccesful exercise because I couldn't find a bargain, it was nice to see the bookings looking healthy from an investment point of view!

Unless WW3 happens (which would destroy most investments except defence anyway), I'm very happy with my investment here!

The cost of living argument is a reasonable one, but we are talking about a budget airline flying short haul. People in the UK will mostly still be able to afford a holiday, but IMO it will likely be the case that many will choose a cheaper one as opposed to flying out to Mexico, Caribbean etc.