The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
From a chart perspective, it should bounce from this level so don't worry too much whats going on this morning. Share price will be up at a better level shortly.
The presentation also has a Q&A, therefore one would assume that any announcement/RNS would allow enough time beforehand for investors to submit their questions and for Avacta to pick out the best ones to answer. The sell side presentation is at 9.30am, so it's not as if Al will have much spare time that morning! (I believe it's possible to submit questions live also, but the above point still stands).
I think we'll see investors hold on until tomorrow, maybe Wednesday. If we get to Thursday 8am without anything, I'm pretty certain there will be a sell off. If an RNS is coming this week, in my opinion it will land tomorrow or Wednesday.
From this level we could see 200p very quickly. Equally the same applies to 300p. It's really a 50/50 gamble this week so you need to decide what you want to do. Long term investors in from a lower level are probably comfortable enough to accept the risk and hold. Those who bought around this level and are worried about going into the red will probably think about getting out. Equally, if you're well into profit then taking your original investment off the table might not be a terrible idea.
I believe Avacta will deliver on the LFT in due course, but if we get to Thursday without anything of substance, it's going to be a bumpy ride so hold on! Investors individual decisions will come down to what their entry point was, how soon they need the money (if at all), and their appetite for risk.
TSSZ, CE marking is a self certification process. What we are looking for is results from the full scale CV. We can't really'fail' this as such. However, the market will want to see results in line with the initial data we have already been given.
I disagree this would be released 'immediately.' They're not just going to be handed a post it note which say, "Hi Al, 96.7/100, cheers!"
Avacta will want to review the data throroughly, then there's the time required to prepare an RNS. It takes time to write an RNS, because companies need to be extremely careful in terms of what is said, the wording used, and how the market could interpret it.
For all we know, Avacta could have received the data last week. No RNS doesn't mean they haven't got it.
This appears to be the bottom, unless there is a gap fill to the 140s. I will be extremely surprised to see it drop below that level as traders will pile in once it leaves oversold territory and the reversal is confirmed. Whilst there will be some profit taking as with all rises, it should bring us out to a higher level.
If however your strategy is buy high and sell low, then offload the lot on Monday morning...
Usual caveat of IMO etc. I'm extremely confident, though.
This is a good sign. Whatever Motley Fool says, do the opposite. They've bashed avacta numerous times over the last 12 months and look where that is now.
Motley Fool only seem to look at revenues and market cap. They always seem to forget that markets look forward, and stock picking is about working on what other people will want to buy in the future. If you wait until big revenues are published, you've probably missed the boat, at least for the big gains.
I've just picked up 10k shares. Looks like we could have a slight gap fill downwards, but even if that happens it should hold around 145. Happy to buy at this level as upside far outweighs the downside.
We should start to see some momentum as we come out of oversold.
Hi NDN,
No I didn't watch it - because in all honestly I don't believe that BAMS will move the share price by any significant amount anymore, if at all. 6 months ago yes, but not now. Infact, if a BAMS RNS landed tomorrow it might even cause a share price drop because it's not the borderline overdue LFD news.
The only customer of note for BAMS would be Governments. Our Government is pulling away from lab based testing as we have seen with NCYT. Others will no doubt follow once a good LFT is available.
So no - didn't watch it because I'm no longer interested in that aspect. I can't see it doing much for us anymore. I know lots of people here like to talk about boats and in my opinion that's one which we have indeed missed. All to play for with the LFT though.
The share price rise is on technicals. I see Wyndrum and Bottomzup have been taking a bashing for saying it - but they are exactly right. We've bounced off the 105ema. I think I made a passing mention that it would probably happen in my post of last night too.
It's nothing to do with the BAMS presentation or the Myles tweet.
For those who aren't dismissive of charts and would like to learn, set your chart to 4hour and add in the Exponential Moving Average at 105. You'll note the drop a couple of weeks ago bounces off the 105 EMA, and we've just bounced of it again. Today's move was confirmed by coming out of oversold on the stochastic. Traders piled in and that's why the share price is back up.
Those wishing to bash chartists and traders need to remember they are not the enemy.
-The falling share price has been caused by Avacta holders getting nervous/impatient and selling out.
-The rise has been caused by traders piling in.
Therefore, if it wasn't for the traders/chartists the share price would have continue to drop away. The traders have done us all a massive favour! If it wasn't for them... we would be down another few percent today and probably the same again tomorrow (assuming no news lands).
We all want to see a big rise in the share price on RNS, and it's the traders who will create that rise. I bet nobody on this board will be buying more shares the day the RNS lands - so none of us will be moving the price up!
There's an Avacta presentation a week tomorrow which could also make interesting viewing for ODX holders. It may turn out to be a damp squib, but as news is overdue on many fronts, the results and being delivered 2 months sooner than they need to be and the CEO is doing an investor Q&A through choice - it seems likely that something is going to happen within the next few trading sessions.
It might be the case there's no LFA news and Avacta share price carnage follows, but I can't see they would set themselves up to fail like that. It's possible, but one would certainly hope not!
£5 on CV seems rather ambitious to me! I would say that's mostly priced in already, or was at the higher level. I think that a good CV will take us to all time highs, but probably only £3.
Any sizeable Goverment orders should take us past £5. Exactly where, who knows. It depends on the size/longevity on the tender and how much we are making per test. I'll be dissapointed and surprised if we don't make it past that £5 mark though. We would be most likely be getting media attention by that point, so that should push us north quite rapidly as we saw happen with the Boohoo/Medusa deal last year.
Any other partnerships, manufacturing deals especially elsewhere in the world will have a positive effect. Equally, we could have foreign Governments looking to procure our AffiDX tests too. There's so much left field news which could land out of the blue!
The bed wetting on here is a result of normal share price movements. We will float around this range until something happens. Try to trade it if you want, sit tight, top slice, or take your profits and leave. There's no right or wrong answer.
IMO even if no news lands, the share price will probably bounce regardless either due to technicals or as the antipation builds approaching the presentation, or both.
Our initial data is very good and better than the data which Innova CE marked on using naso swabs. There's a question mark over the SA variant to some degree, but whilst that's new to the UK it's not a new variant - it's been around for months. I would be very surprised if that had been overlooked.
ODX and GAD have been given manufacturing contracts by the Government, plus equipment which currently sits doing nothing - it's not being used to make the Mologic test (of course, their data is okay but not as good as ours).
ODX and GAD can probably make both tests, so I can see why this would have been done. For this reason, I'm not concerned that BBI and Abingdon aren't included currently. If we fail to deliver the goods, that equipment will start churning out Mologic tests instead. (The other possiblity is that it's not us at all, but if not us then who?)
Furthermore, if things were going horribly wrong with our AffiDX test, surely the Goverment would've given up on it, moved and starting making something else instead. You would think so, anyway.
Looking forward to the investor presentation. Only a week to go. Something is going to happen in the next few trading sessions and I can't see it will be anything bad.
Remember to order your Innova tests online. Mine have arrived already and been promptly binned. Unfortunately I had to use an Innova test on Monday working at a college, and will probably have to do another tomorrow. Oddly, it was Innova branded and not NHS branded. The instructions said I had to swab my tonsils (which the NHS branded one doesn't tell you to do) so that was great fun.
I've just emailed all the papers/sunday papers about the published Innova tender, the poor real world sensitivity of the tests (with research), and how it's dangerous to have the public confidently thinking they're negative after taking a test with low sensitivity. Would be good to get some publicity on this as it's a totally unacceptable way to spend public funds.
jdt1990, ah good! You believe the same as me then, that Innova is supposed to be a pharyngeal sample.
risk32 - yes I've just read the RNS again and you are correct so well spotted. The general point still stands, though.
If our real world S&S is anywhere near that of the data we've got, we will blow Innova out of the water.
PL this is an interesting point though. The Innova tests are just being used as 'nasal swabs.' Essentially the sampling method described for Innova is exactly the same as what we are expecting our test to be.
I've not been able to find any sources to confirm how they're actually supposed to be used though, and whether their data was based on pharyngeal samples.
I recall that when the Innova tests were first released that they were pharyngeal, but I've not been able to find anything to support this. Of course, this info could have been deliberately buried, because getting school kids and the general public to stick those swabs all the way in just isn't realistic so the Gov have let it slide. I don't know, but I would love to find a source to confirm it.
If that is indeed the case, it would explain why the real world performance of Innova is so poor.
RegulatorUK,
You do understand that Avacta have a test and the initial data was published weeks ago? Furthermore, that data pool was larger than Innova's on which they CE marked and began selling millions? You also understand that data is better than Mologic too (not that it matters as you guys will make whatever is best regardless, or both, so not sure why you're just making stuff up)?
Just because Avacta are doing a thorough clinical evaluation doesn't mean they 'don't have a test.' It means they're making sure the data is solid, which will result in big orders and should also restore public confidence in lateral flow devices - which is good for everybody - including you guys!
Just a little recap on Innova.
Innova CE marked on 25 positive samples and 25 negative. Claim is 96/100 S&S
Avacta's initial evaluation used 30 positive samples and 26 negative. This gave 96.7/100 S&S
So whilst that may not sound exciting, the point is that Innova CE marked on less data than we already have, and the result wasn't actually quite as good either.
Furthermore,
Avacta's samples had CT values of 22-26 (with half them being CT 26) to achieve 96.7%
In the Innova Liverpool pilot, their tests were found to have 79% sensitivity on CT below 20, and 91% on CT below 18.
Innova were achieving a sensitivity of 17% less than Avacta on samples with a much **lower CT value**. Granted this isn't a direct comparison for obvious reasons, but it's interesting!
Further studies of the Innova device on 8774 tests carried out gave an overall S&S of 76.8/99.6, increasing to 95% percent in patients with high viral loads. Sensitivity when used by members of the public dropped to 58%.
What this means in reality:
"A sensitivity of 58% and specificity of 99.6%, this would mean that 100?000 people being tested would find 630 positives—of which only 230 would actually have covid-19, while 400 would be false positives."
Here's some other commentry on the Innvoa Liverpool pilot:
"Indeed it even failed to detect two out of five samples with the highest level of viral gene copies, these displayed a PCR CT of < 20 (i.e. were samples which could be diluted one million fold and still give a positive PCR signal). This graphically shows that this assay is simply not sensitive enough to use to test persons with a view to confirming an absence of infection and thereby an absence of infectivity. A negative result with this lateral flow test simply does not infer an absence of infection.”
"When LFT was compared with PCR, a false positive result occurred in just 2 out of 2981 PCR negative individuals (< 0.1%), but LFT missed 23 of the 35 PCR positive individuals (51%). Because there were only 45 PCR positives in total, there is some uncertainty but the sensitivity of the lateral flow test for SARS Cov-2 judged by PCR is likely to be between 34% and 64%."
"It is not fantastic to see that the sensitivity vs RT-PCR drops below 50%. This low accuracy was mentioned in passing from a guidance document encouraging the use of this product for mass testing programs. This is also rather different to the product instructions stating sensitivity of 96%."
So whats my point? Innova isn't anywhere near as good as their claimed figures from their very limited data. Perhaps Avacta's test won't be as good in the real world either, but the bar is set very low by Innova at the moment!
Sources:
shorturl.at/inyTY
shorturl.at/koGT3
shorturl.at/jBGHK
shorturl.at/dsAJ4