RE: Being Honest...17 Mar 2023 16:27
Just going back to these:
"Aminex has been informed by ARA Petroleum Tanzania Limited ("APT"), the Operator of the Ruvuma PSA, of a further delay to the spudding of the Chikumbi-1 well ("CH-1"). Aminex is pleased to announce that plans to accelerate gas production, as outlined in our announcement of 1 November 2022, have been further developed with the Tanzanian authorities, now targeting October 2023 for production of first gas. This acceleration in the gas production schedule will result in earlier gas revenues to the Company (Q4 of 2023), decoupling the production of first gas from the spudding of the CH-1 well."
"A well-workover of the Ntorya-1 well ("NT-1"), to enable rapid tie-in to the gas production facilities and bring the well into early production requires the use of a drilling rig and will run after the drilling of CH-1, which we expect later this year."
Decoupling CH-1 from the gas production does not mean CH-1 will b drilled and tied in until Spring 2024. What decoupling means is that the project now has two workstreams running in parallel, one is drilling CH-1 and the other is getting production up and running from the existing wells. Neither stream impacts the other, but that does not mean ARA are going to hold back on CH-1. The fact that the RNS clearly states that the drilling rig will do the workover of NT-1 after CH-1 means the drilling of CH-1 will happen this year. Whether it happens this summer or in November, nobody knows, and nobody will know until ARA tell us.
The dry season from May to October is a very long window for ARA to drill CH-1, so I do not see any reason for them to miss that window. It might be later in the window, but still in the window, IMVHO.
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