Member Info for haggismchaggis1

Correction!

"I see SCIR hitting 8x to 10x in the next 12 months"

Was thinking of AEX when I put p instead of x

I see SCIR hitting 8p to 10p in the next 12 months, hence have now bought some and will hold for that. Just wait until the renewables deals start dropping and the price shoots up, then see how much your pointless history lessons are worth.

TheGift = filtered for being clueless. You are the epitome of naive.

AEX never paid him for PR, look on his site, there is no indication whatsoever that he does paid promotion for companies. He makes money when the stocks he has bought go up, and by people buying into the stocks he promotes which helps those stock to go up. He also has a consultancy business but this is nothing to do with his stock picks as all his clients in that business would make him sign NDA agreements.

ICB,

Absolutely! As stated by AEX:

• Targeting 140 MMcfd = gross revenues $178 MM p.a.
• Up to $40m per annum net to Aminex (during cost recovery period)

$40m is £34.68m.

The MCap today is only £43m.

If the AEX dividend pot was £20m of the £34.68m revenues, that would give us 0.486p per share. If the market makes that a 5% return then the shares would be priced at 9.72p for a MCap of £399,492,000.

Very importantly, at today's share price, after 2.5 years of dividends you will have your investment back, your stock will be free, and subsequent dividends are then FREE MONEY.

There is obviously potential to hit higher gas flows and thus have higher revenues. Also we can get Kiliwani up and running and drill the South prospect, as we'll have free 3D Seismic over it. So potential for more revenues that way.

Jack,

My reasoning is that:
1) ARA told us in RNS that the drilling would take take place in November
2) In 2 updates ARA have not told us anything different
3) If a new well pad is needed it can still be in place and the drilling started in November as per the schedule (ARA would have taken its possibility into account when planning the spud date for November, so no guarantee of any delay). It's NOT a certainty that a new pad will be built, it is only a 50/50 possibility.
4) The spud date was 'in November', they never said whether they were looking at early or late November, so a 2 week delay has only a 50% chance of pushing the drill into the first 2 weeks of December.

Gaslady,

And as always, the data analysis might be delayed by external issues, for example getting a time slot on the supercomputer for the analysis, as these timeslots are always in huge demand. The usual suspects will always post crap about delays being a fault with the company, when in many cases it's not.

As for the delay, 2 weeks is nothing in the big scheme of things. Gas sales don't start for ages, the drill is 99.99% likely to still be started in Novmber, so not an issue at all.

Also check out that WEN divided was 9%, hence their share price rising today.

Imagine the AEX divided, it'll be decent because AEX have ridiculously low operating costs so can share out a big chunk of the profits. Then work out that the share price will be probably 20x the dividend to make the dividend 5% return.

AEX way undervalued.

From Wentworth today:
.
The proposed pre-emption clearly demonstrates the potential of the Ruvuma asset alongside Wentworth's ability to identify value and negotiate favourable transactions in Tanzania
.
Wentworth remains committed to identifying and pursuing further opportunities within the country and the region

You're totally clueless. They have a deal with ARA that goes on for YEARS, stop talking bulls*** just because you lost money. As per the below, the deal income continues well into 2024 you diot.

Total consideration of up to US$16 million comprised of:

o Initial consideration of US$3 million payable on completion of the Proposed Transaction;

o US$3 million payable upon final investment decision being taken by the parties to the Ruvuma Asset Production Sharing Agreement or the JOA as the case may be;

o Deferred consideration of up to US$8 million payable in the form of a 25% net revenue share from the point when Ruvuma commences delivery of gas to the gas buyer;

o Contingent consideration of US$2 million payable on gross production reaching a level equal to or greater than 50Bcf.

Take today's AEX RNS in context with the update wording from SCIR:
.
"Over half of the seismic data has now been acquired over the Ntorya location and, at the current rate of activity, it is expected that the acquisition programme will be completed by the middle of October 2022."

"Sufficient seismic data regarding the drilling location of the Chikumbi-1 ("CH-1") well has now been acquired, and processing and interpretation of such data is almost complete with further updates to be provided in due course."
.
.
So AEX say CH-1 drilling location by mid September, and SCIR say the rest of the data then by mid October.
.
.
Does this 2 week delay suggest that they are not happy with the current well pad location that was built years ago, at the same time NT-2 was drilled? Only time will tell

What matters for SCIR now is their plans for the FUTURE, the cash and longer term income they are getting from ARA, that is worth 4x their current MCap.

History lessons never make any money for investors. SCIR will get rerated, it has to when it's MCap is lower than the cash and known receivables, WGAF whether they blow it over the next few years, what matters is there is money to be made there NOW.

TheGift,

That is not an issue, it's history, done, finished, over, past tense, now irrelevant.

What matters for SCIR now is their plans for the FUTURE, the cash and longer term income they are getting from ARA, that is worth 4x their current MCap.

History lessons never make any money for investors. SCIR will get rerated, it has to when it's MCap is lower than the cash and known receivables, WGAF whether they blow it over the next few years, what matters is there is money to be made there NOW.

CP,

Some will have gone I guess, but the deal still leaves SCIR significantly undervalued, and a 400% rise of their MCap still looks appropriate to me. I've never been an SCIR fanboy, and I'm still not, I'm just highlighting the upside potential for what should be an easy rerating for them.

Excellent news for AEX and ARA, as it now reduces the JV to just two players, with no need to worry about SCIR getting funding at each development stage. AEX funded to at least first commercial gas means this project can now fly along untethered.

It would appear that ARA have been real busy in the past days/week with SCIR agreement finalisation and sign off. Now they have that task completed, I'm thinking they will get on with finalisation and sign off of the report on 3D results which is coming our way!

LM,

History lessons never got anyone a profit. The ARA deal is worth 400% up, it's as simple as that now.

BG,

It's so undervalued just by way of the ARA deal (400%), before you even start to look at operations. Anything operational that SCIR has of value on top of that makes the MCap even more undervalued.

With SCIR I'm far more interested in their plan to invest in renewables, as that is a fast growing sector, and then the Circular Economy which gives SCIR a stable base to grow from.

Just putting it out there, as the RNS today secures their future, where until now they had been priced to fail.

"Other than for adjustments with respect to conditions precedent now fulfilled, including TPDC waiving its right of first refusal and Scirocco shareholder approval for the disposal having now been obtained, APT has agreed to enter into all of the same agreements (and on the same terms) as Wentworth Resources plc (as detailed in the Company's announcement of 13 June 2022)."
.
The following is from the Wentworth agreement. At the time, the SCIR share price was a lot higher, such that the deal now represents 400% the current SCIR MCap. No brainer for a rerating I'd say.
.
Ruvuma Transaction Highlights
.
-- Total consideration of up to US$16 million comprised of:
o Initial consideration of US$3 million payable on completion of the Proposed Transaction;
.
o US$3 million payable upon final investment decision being taken by the parties to the Ruvuma Asset Production Sharing Agreement or the JOA as the case may be;
.
o Deferred consideration of up to US$8 million payable in the form of a 25% net revenue share from the point when Ruvuma commences delivery of gas to the gas buyer;
.
o Contingent consideration of US$2 million payable on gross production reaching a level equal to or greater than 50Bcf.
.
-- Wentworth to provide Scirocco with a loan of up to $6,250,000 to meet all cash calls pursuant to the Ruvuma JOA arising between the Economic Date of 1 January 2022 and expected Completion timeline.
.
-- The first $3m to be drawn under the loan is interest free however any amounts drawn in excess of $3m will incur interest at a rate of 7% per annum until such time as the grant of the security in respect of the loan is approved by the Minister for Energy in Tanzania.
.
-- The total consideration represents over 200% premium to Scirocco's current market capitalisation.

Matt,

As just posted, the ARA deal represents 400% on the current MCap. Anything operational that SCIR has of value on top of that makes the MCap even more undervalued.

With SCIR I'm far more interested in their plan to invest in renewables, as that is a fast growing sector, and then the Circular Economy which gives SCIR a stable base to grow from.

"Other than for adjustments with respect to conditions precedent now fulfilled, including TPDC waiving its right of first refusal and Scirocco shareholder approval for the disposal having now been obtained, APT has agreed to enter into all of the same agreements (and on the same terms) as Wentworth Resources plc (as detailed in the Company's announcement of 13 June 2022)."
.
The following is from the Wentworth agreement. At the time, the SCIR share price was a lot higher, such that the deal now represents 400% the current SCIR MCap. No brainer for a rerating I'd say.
.
Ruvuma Transaction Highlights
.
-- Total consideration of up to US$16 million comprised of:
o Initial consideration of US$3 million payable on completion of the Proposed Transaction;
.
o US$3 million payable upon final investment decision being taken by the parties to the Ruvuma Asset Production Sharing Agreement or the JOA as the case may be;
.
o Deferred consideration of up to US$8 million payable in the form of a 25% net revenue share from the point when Ruvuma commences delivery of gas to the gas buyer;
.
o Contingent consideration of US$2 million payable on gross production reaching a level equal to or greater than 50Bcf.
.
-- Wentworth to provide Scirocco with a loan of up to $6,250,000 to meet all cash calls pursuant to the Ruvuma JOA arising between the Economic Date of 1 January 2022 and expected Completion timeline.
.
-- The first $3m to be drawn under the loan is interest free however any amounts drawn in excess of $3m will incur interest at a rate of 7% per annum until such time as the grant of the security in respect of the loan is approved by the Minister for Energy in Tanzania.
.
-- The total consideration represents over 200% premium to Scirocco's current market capitalisation.