Member Info for haggis_trap

Thanks for sharing ...
Good interview and very candid

Having watched this interview and also the half year results this week my wife now thinks I have strange obsession with HH :-)

@senseman. Interesting post...

Unfortunately the recent "value destruction" by board has left investors in the dark not knowing who or what to believe. Certainly Lancaster didn't perform as Trice hoped - however 10k bopd says there is still significant value here (particularly at current oil prices) and that bonds will be repaid.

Suggesting the reservoir might keep producing until 2022, but could also bubble out tomorrow, only adds to that uncertainty.

Yeah, Kistos have done very well (Andrew Austin deserves credit).
However : next 6 months are going to be an exciting ride here...

Just caught up with the presentation.
Excellent - well worth 40 minutes of investor time.
A few summary points that I had previously over looked:

1) gas weighted portfolio. ideal in current climate
2) with experience in the areas being drilled management quietly believe chance of success (COS) higher than stated
3) early commercialisation of the first x3 drills looks plausible given short tie-backs
4) management still actively looking at production deals in range £100-200mil.

Lots to like here : Everything remains dependent on the upcoming drill campaign.
However its clear exploration is the right strategy in current climate, and I get the feeling LBE are quietly confident...
With a fair wind this could easily "multi-bag" for anyone who has bought in up until now and is prepared to be patient.

One final personal observation : Many of the senior management are age 55+. LBE is clearly their final gig before retirement and they seem to have a clear plan based on previous experiences with Faroe (good and bad).

Will watch the presentation later. Given risk associated with exploration I would be worried if LBE were banging drums now.... Keep powder dry for after the first discovery. I like Helges quiet (Norwegian) confidence.

Patience...
Kistos got slightly luckily with the gas-prices and timing.
However LBE could (very likely // touch wood) fly between now and xmas if any of the autumnal drills find black gold.

jeez : blink and the share price goes up...
remarkable.

fully funded company with market cap of £40 million chasing oil reserves of £1 billion...

Math above matches my thinking - though any strikes will likely be traded for existing production / early-revenue rather than waiting for full appraisal.

rip Andi Kay.

Clearly a larger than life character : never met him but have a clear picture in my head after swapping numerous messages and subsequently emails. Clearly a lovely, well intentioned guy who was not shy to share his opinion and colourful life experience. Arguably he was the main man on this board in the old days! Delighted he lived to see the scummy "Mctiernan/Corbett" board disposed : a small victory. Hope he is enjoying poker with young hot french croupiers from a high...

> Probability of three blanks is 0.45x0.59x0.75=19.9%.

Apology Paul, you are right. I used wrong figure for second drill.
The odds look good here (even better using your figures) - and that is just based on the first x3 drills. We have x4 to follow afterwards.

> However, track record in Norway is averaging a lot higher than industry standard calculations;

Exactly! I am also reassured that Equinor know what they are doing. The beauty of farm-in with Equinor is that it will be easy to trade any strikes for production / revenue rather than waiting the 5-10 years it normally takes to develop an oil field.

Probability of 3 blanks seems to be 0.45 x0.69 x0.75 = 23%
Or chance of success is 77%

A strike on any of the wells could (based on $4 per barrel valuation) could see share price double. In theory dice loaded in our favour. Though keep fingers crossed.

Hopefully an early strike which is quickly swapped for production (as previously happened when faroe did deal with equinor) and we will be flying

What a share / company.
There appears to be some serious FOMO here by those scrambling to get in.
Once invested everyone holding tight for longer-term.

In generally I like the Baillie Gifford strategy : buy stocks you have conviction in to hold longer term. Most stock market gains come from 5-10% of real winners. The fact Richard has invested his own money here (4% of company, ~£1.8 million) is a real vote of confidence. A quick google suggests he has backed a few AIM winners in recent years.

Good investigative work!
As a retired Baille Gifford partner and star fund manager I think we can assume that Richard Sneller
a) Isn't short of a bob
b) Knows exactly what he is doing when investing his own cash

We are in good company here. From last TR-1 most of LBE is held by high profile institutions.
A sniff of drilling success and this will fly in the autumn.

And here was me thinking Daveri007 had topped up ;-)

Good investigative work!
As a retired partner in Baillie Gifford, and star fund manager, I think its safe to assume that Richard Snellers :
a) isn't short of a bob.
b) knows exactly what he is doing when it comes to investing his own cash.

we are in good company. worth remembering most of LBE is currently held by high profile institutions.
a sniff of success and this will fly.

Yes - this is a longer term hold.
Just let it sit for 12-18 months (minimum) and let Andrew execute his plan rather than worry about short term price targets.
The plan is clearly to build a medium size energy transition company then eventually sell it on in a few years time.
So far it is going brilliantly - feeling lucky to be invested here and along for the ride.

As I see it... Between now and year end there are x5 wells scheduled.
These are chasing a potential total of 236MBoE with average probability of success of 33%.
So, by year end LBE would be expected to have discovered 77MBoE.
In theory that could eventually value the company at 77MBoE * $4 per barrel = £308million.
For reference the current market cap is just £40 million.

Of course it wont work like that : however even success in just the smallest prospective well (Mugentined / 24MBoe) could see the share-price double. Nothing is guaranteed here, and exploration is "risky". Conversly the upside potential should be obvious for those prepared to hold medium to longer term.

What happens if the first well is a duster ? Obviously not good news... But they have several more rolls of the dice already lined up. So I wouldn't expect the share price to tank. All x7 drills lined up are in geologically different areas so totally uncorrelated from each other. What makes this share is good value is the Norwegian tax rebate on drilling. If you are going to buy in then might as well strap in for the entire ride, before the first well, rather than hanging about hoping for a 10% discount but possibly missing the boat. The result of first well (good or bad) will have no impact on the other x6 wells.

https://longboatenergy.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Announcement-Idemtisu-PL293B-003-SNEL-2.pdf

spud due 2nd September according to my notes.
some early success on first drill would be fantastic...

His departure immediately after the failed court sanction is telling... Good riddance. The man lied to me on phone several times. An absolute rat.

> Don't you agree HT?

Nope, despite also being from the NE originally I am all for Scottish independence myself ;-)
No shame in being pro UK (that is simply a different form of nationalism). What I object to is patronising, and badly informed, tone used by schlemiel (who previously seemed like a decent poster). Competently unnecessary and no apology for responding in the manner I did.