Member Info for haggis_trap

> You realise 13M are predicted to be in fuel poverty this winter?

Its an obscenity of a tax. If tories wished to fix the issues of fuel poverty then reinvesting the windfall tax in a managed transition to renewables might have some credibility.

Lets look at the details...

- 65% windfall tax on all north sea cash flow until at least 2025.
- Future investment in North Sea killed stone dead overnight.
- No funds for a managed transition to renewables energy (the one thing that could help energy crisis!)
- Using the 5bn raised to give everyone in UK £400 cash back, which will only add to inflation.

Corbyn couldn't have dreamed up a communist policy like that! However Tory mismanagement of the North Sea revenues can be traced back to the 1980s when Thatcher spent the last windfall like a child in sweat shop.

It is an absolute disaster for any small oiler trying to pay down debt. What really rubs salt in the wounds in that Georgre Osborne reduced PRT revenue in 2016 to 0% (yes ZERO). Had they restored that to normal levels as oil price bounced back there would be no need for todays cash grab.

How about a windfall tax on City revenues ?
We all know why that wont happen....

The windfall tax is a terrible policy. Cant be offset against previous losses - so basically a tax on cash flow.
However I am hopefully Kistos can make it work:

1) The Tulip assets (60% of output) are in thankfully in Holland so exempt.
2) Any profits from the Laggan deal (40% of output) can hopefully be reinvested in future drilling (saving 91p tax per £1 capital invested).

Turns out the Tory party are the real communists!
Handing every household in the UK £400 with a 65% windfall tax on oil.
... the day after the Sue Grey report dropped.

Expect RNS in the morning.

Outrageous cash grab, especially for small oiler like HUR who are in debt.

1) If there is going to be a windfall tax then it should be reinvested directly in green energy to solve energy crisis longer term.
2) Windfall tax is going to cost jobs and investment in the North Sea
3) If the Tories hadn't slashed Petroleum Revenue to 0% in 2016 they wouldn't need a windfall tax now!

Turns out the Tories (... not the SNP) are the real communists and threat to future of the North Sea. However it is politically expedient for them to run the North Sea down in current political climate given clamor for IndyRef2.0 : Shocking populist policy - the very day after Sue Grey report came out...

Too early to be a leak... As mentioned above Black Rock were selling down in the weeks before kveijke discovery. Makes no sense to be : but maybe they wanted to hedge bets.

Ultimately this is a long game. Hopefully by autumn management will be sitting on enough accumulated discoveries to surprise us with a swap for producing asset. Once that happens this could (eventually) fly.

as I see it the high oil price is double edged sword. it does mean that simply purchasing production is now unlikely.
however it also means any exploration discoveries (which can be traded) have higher value for the same drilling cost.

Exactly : we suddenly have x3 drills (fully paid from existing cash) been now and end of summer. Any one of these large prospects could be a company maker. Almost a free hit as the existing share price just about covers the existing discoveries plus cash in bank. Potentially exciting times ahead....

You might be right... Those of us who have been here a long time have been frustrated with the slow start.
However I am starting to believe that now might be a good time to jump aboard the Longboat.

New presentation online today : "Two Well Exploration Farm-In Overview"

https://longboatenergy.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/OMV-Farm-In-Overview-vF-20220511.pdf

^ yip : as I see it Cambozola is almost a free hit. Existing discoveries + cash in bank pretty much cover the current share price...

Really hard to put a value on Camobazola & Egyptian vulture because...
a) appraising and development these fields will take time
b) they will likely be swapped for existing production under terms not yet known.

However, there are a number of factors that make me hope LBE remains good longer term prospect:
- terrible geo-political situation make european oil & gas supplies essential.
- Norwegian tax breaks make exploration very attractive
- continued high oil price
- management seem to be geologically smart in selecting prospects.

A few big exploration strikes should add multiples to share price. However even more patience will be required... Investors remain entirely dependent on management trading the exploration success into worthwhile production. Only once company is generating revenue will the share price rise.

I was getting itchy feet... However following Kveike success now remain cautiously optimistic. This weeks farm in deal also looks very positive. Good luck all!

Nice article about LBE in the herald
https://www.heraldscotland.com/business_hq/20060928.longboat-energy-eyes-north-sea-gas-prospects-oil-find/

So as I see it ...
- Company has £26 million in bank.
- Market cap is £41 million (57M shares @ 71p).
- Company has discovered 10% of 28-40 million barrels at Kveikje and 15% of 40-60 million barrels at Egyptian Vulture.

So lets say company has discovered ~11M BofE (net BofE to LBE, estimated). If these are valued at £4 / barrel in ground (conservative as oil price has risen considerably) then discoveries are worth ~£44 million. Add this to cash in bank and company could be worth £70 million. That would merit a share price of ~£1.20 at some point in the future. However there is obviously some uncertain as the recent discoveries aren't yet producing.

After todays excellent news I am a lot happier about the prospects for LBE. Not least as both recent discoveries were with Equinor (whom Faroe have traded discoveries for production in the past). What market hasn't seemed to factor in is value of recent discoveries in high oil price environment ?

Brilliant result! In context 10% of 40mb discoveries is slightly smaller net worth to LBE than Egyptian Vulture (~15% of ~60mb). The really good news is that with two decent Equinor discoveries in bag a swap for production now looks much more likely.

Will be interested to see how market reacts. Once appraised both discoveries should easily value company >£1.20+. The question remains how long that might take... However surely this result will see LBE back above 70p?

Could be good price to buy... My concern is how long Egyptian Vulture (or other discoveries) will take to appraise. A clear plan to revenue and monetisation is required

Worrying sloppiness....
The RNS confused me - especially the dates

Sneller remains tied in at a loss like rest of us

This must be only "oil company" whose share price falls as the oil price rises ...

it is the lack of urgency, coupled with complete lack of concern for share price, that is irritating me.

@daveri007
having been patient and waited 2 years I think that I am allowed to voice concerns? the share price graph speaks volumes. that trend wont change until the board produce revenue to justify their salaries. the company has raised twice (at £1 and then 70p) and current share price remains below those levels with no obvious catalyst. like everyone else, I am sitting on paper losses hoping the board can pull a rabbit out the hat. Egyptian Vulture is at least 2 years away from producing revenue - and even then that decision is out of LBE control.

perhaps if my recent email to LBE hadn't been ignored then I would be a little more magnanimous.

It's a double whammy.... Lack of producing assets means they are not profiting from oil price. Plus they have likely been priced out future purchases. Meanwhile board draw massive salaries from a company that currently generates zero revenue. Have been patient and given them time : however not been rewarded. If this gets back to 70/80p then I am likely out of here...

^ exactly : this will eventually come good. However most of us looking at a 12 month wait just to recover paper losses. Thankfully I didn't go in too deep here!