Scancell founder says the company is ready to commercialise novel medicines to counteract cancer. Watch the video here.
Its a fair question to ask what can go wrong here... I am a longer term holder, but as the share price goes up this becomes embarrassing / worrying larger part of portfolio. Nice problem to have. Gut instinct says to grow a pair and less this run.
Traditionally biggest risk for energy companies is price of oil / gas. However with exploration out of fashion it is going to take 4-5 years for supply to catch up with demand. Gas / Dutch TTF clearly won't stay at current silly high prices forever. However the longer it does the more cash is accumulated (... and share price will tick up accordingly). £1 million euros a day not to be sniffed at!
ESG / climate change concerns a big for super majors like BP. However AA has that covered and riding the green wave whilst justifying it with low scope emissions. A clever place to be and another reason this will (eventually) be taken over.
The one niggling concern is that current gas prices will make pricing future acquisitions fairly problematic. However you can't have your cake and eat it.
Thank you AA : (fwiw, this share has recovered some previous oil & gas investment losses for me in short time period. For that I remain grateful!).
Its a fair question to ask what can go wrong here... I am a longer term holder, but as the share price goes up this becomes embarrassing / worrying larger part of portfolio. Nice problem to have. Gut instinct says to grow a pair and less this run.
Traditionally biggest risk for energy companies is price of oil / gas. However with exploration out of fashion it is going to take 4-5 years for supply to catch up with demand. Gas / Dutch TTF clearly won't stay at current silly high prices forever. However the longer it does the more cash is accumulated (... and share price will tick up accordingly). £1 million euros a day not to be sniffed at!
ESG / climate change concerns a big for super majors like BP. However AA has that covered and riding the green wave whilst justifying it with low scope emissions. A clever place to be and another reason this will (eventually) be taken over.
The one niggling concern is that current gas prices will make pricing future acquisitions fairly problematic. However you can't have your cake and eat it.
Thank you AA : (fwiw, this share has recovered some previous oil & gas investment losses for me in short time period. For that I remain grateful!).
Exactly : what is the future vision for this company once bonds are repaid ? (Which they now will be with ease).
All trust in fractured reservoirs, and direction of the company, was lost when Dr Trice was fired. Yes, there were issues with Lancaster reservoir. Throwing the 'baby out with bathwater' was not the longer term solution.
Remember the names involved!
Kistos flying. Having a little in there kept me patient here.
However, as I see it : LBE more likely to x3 bag from currents prices over next 12 months. One good strike and this will motor.
Wonderful stuff... Kistos flying with lots of irons in the fire.
AA really is a likeable city dell-boy. I reckon he knew exactly what he was doing when he get up Kistos as 'green' gas company to ride the energy transition wave.
Happy to hold longer-term
^ @munchbox. you were warned this was a risky / longer-term share...
instead you blindly hoped an RTO of any old rusty field at end of its life meant share price would magically double.
now : here is a positive thought.
this drill just discovered ~2 million barrels (20%) for LBE.
if that is worth £8 million then entire drilling campaign has already paid for itself.
Sure - Rødhette wasn't the drill that will transform the company.
However it seems to have been worthy.
Such is the nature of exploration. Do you feel lucky punk? I am still in...
As I see it : something better than nothing.
Its not (... yet) the transformational result it could have been.
However : it most likely worth something to someone at current oil prices.
Suspect that the LBE share can ebe sold on for near field production in future.
Dutch TTF remains at record highs.
Analysts believe it could rise another 30% by spring.
The drop in share price this morning makes no sense.
Only explanation is market makers trying to flush out some shares?
Welcome aboard the longboat dicky!
An ex-Baillie Gifford fund manager putting in a cool £2 million of his own cash is fantastic vote of confidence
Thanks for sharing ...
Good interview and very candid
Having watched this interview and also the half year results this week my wife now thinks I have strange obsession with HH :-)
@senseman. Interesting post...
Unfortunately the recent "value destruction" by board has left investors in the dark not knowing who or what to believe. Certainly Lancaster didn't perform as Trice hoped - however 10k bopd says there is still significant value here (particularly at current oil prices) and that bonds will be repaid.
Suggesting the reservoir might keep producing until 2022, but could also bubble out tomorrow, only adds to that uncertainty.
Yeah, Kistos have done very well (Andrew Austin deserves credit).
However : next 6 months are going to be an exciting ride here...
Just caught up with the presentation.
Excellent - well worth 40 minutes of investor time.
A few summary points that I had previously over looked:
1) gas weighted portfolio. ideal in current climate
2) with experience in the areas being drilled management quietly believe chance of success (COS) higher than stated
3) early commercialisation of the first x3 drills looks plausible given short tie-backs
4) management still actively looking at production deals in range £100-200mil.
Lots to like here : Everything remains dependent on the upcoming drill campaign.
However its clear exploration is the right strategy in current climate, and I get the feeling LBE are quietly confident...
With a fair wind this could easily "multi-bag" for anyone who has bought in up until now and is prepared to be patient.
One final personal observation : Many of the senior management are age 55+. LBE is clearly their final gig before retirement and they seem to have a clear plan based on previous experiences with Faroe (good and bad).
Will watch the presentation later. Given risk associated with exploration I would be worried if LBE were banging drums now.... Keep powder dry for after the first discovery. I like Helges quiet (Norwegian) confidence.
Patience...
Kistos got slightly luckily with the gas-prices and timing.
However LBE could (very likely // touch wood) fly between now and xmas if any of the autumnal drills find black gold.
jeez : blink and the share price goes up...
remarkable.
fully funded company with market cap of £40 million chasing oil reserves of £1 billion...
Math above matches my thinking - though any strikes will likely be traded for existing production / early-revenue rather than waiting for full appraisal.
rip Andi Kay.
Clearly a larger than life character : never met him but have a clear picture in my head after swapping numerous messages and subsequently emails. Clearly a lovely, well intentioned guy who was not shy to share his opinion and colourful life experience. Arguably he was the main man on this board in the old days! Delighted he lived to see the scummy "Mctiernan/Corbett" board disposed : a small victory. Hope he is enjoying poker with young hot french croupiers from a high...
> Probability of three blanks is 0.45x0.59x0.75=19.9%.
Apology Paul, you are right. I used wrong figure for second drill.
The odds look good here (even better using your figures) - and that is just based on the first x3 drills. We have x4 to follow afterwards.
> However, track record in Norway is averaging a lot higher than industry standard calculations;
Exactly! I am also reassured that Equinor know what they are doing. The beauty of farm-in with Equinor is that it will be easy to trade any strikes for production / revenue rather than waiting the 5-10 years it normally takes to develop an oil field.
Probability of 3 blanks seems to be 0.45 x0.69 x0.75 = 23%
Or chance of success is 77%
A strike on any of the wells could (based on $4 per barrel valuation) could see share price double. In theory dice loaded in our favour. Though keep fingers crossed.
Hopefully an early strike which is quickly swapped for production (as previously happened when faroe did deal with equinor) and we will be flying