Member Info for haggis_trap

Had a quiet morning,
So dialed into presentation in background.
Lots of positive stuff (with exception of the share price as we all know!).

In summary:
- Rodhette may be worth something. Mugtenind is uncommercial.
- Appraisal of Egyptian Vulture due late spring. It remains a potential company maker.
- They may swap EV for production, but they want to evaluate its full potential first.
- Lots of other options / deals being evaluated in background. There is more to come beyond the next x4 wells.

It is pretty clear management are aware of the share price frustrations!

^ Exactly : monetisation and a regular income stream is what will move this share price.
Dare I say it : but at 65p this could be a great buy. Though I am not adding anymore!

To be fair the communication has been fine. In general I am also happy with execution : the 7 well campaign was a good-deal that has delivered results (I appreciate some didn't buy in for exploration, however as oil price rised after covid it made more sense).

As I see it the share price should be 90-100p based on Egyptian Vulture alone (in which case we would be above the equity raise and I would be more chilled). However : the reality is that we appear to be suffering a post COP26 anti-oil sentiment. To me that is disconnected from fact that world economy still entierly dependent on oil. Coupled with fact that Norway is basically only euro nation exploring in a time when oil prices under pressure and approaching $100.

This will eventually come good. But it may take more patience than investors are willing to offer. Frustrating share for sure! I don't like sitting on paper loss.

Some much needed publicity

https://longboatenergy.com/analysts/

That is an absolutely fantastic article. It did strike me yesterday that working from home means I am spending less on petrol (oil) but more on heating (gas). That trend set to continue?

So, in very simple terms:
Current market cap is £300million.
KIST are currently making ~1 million euro a day...

For sure, the "silly" gas prices wont last forever.
However gas prices also aren't going back to normal any time soon either. Even at £3.50 it could argued this is still cheap (... basically a PE of 1, all be it based on recent insanity in the gas market).

I think this will (eventually) come good, but it is appears that it going to require yet more patience.

The x7 well drilling campaign was a "good-deal" which will add value. Oil price remains high and the management are clearly diligent and expert in everything they do. My main issue right now is that following the clear success of Egyptian Vulture the share price is below the equity raise of 77p and approaching 12-month low. That is a big boot in the balls for investors.

The fact share price is currently below equity raise (after success!) should be of major concern.

This badly needs some management publicity & positivity. Who would believe that after out first discovery (Egyptian Vulture) the share price is sitting below the equity raise. If you take the cash in bank plus median conservative estimate for EV then share price should be closer to £1. Certainly it should be higher than 77p....

The COP26 event is not helping general oil and gas sentiment - however on flip side the world economy needs oil for transition period. Simply stopping production doesn't help reduce consumer demand. Plus it seems likely oil & gas prices are going to remain high for foreseeable future.

Perhaps what is required is that management quickly swap the clear potential of EV-discovery for existing production as faster route to monetisation ?

> share price catalyst

My feeling is LBE management will aim to trade discoveries for existing production. Much faster route to monetisation (vs full field development) for company at early stage.

Equinor Egyptian Vulture discovery. For Longboat this is company maker

https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/360705/equinor-makes-north-sea-oil-discovery/

> An odious party that conceals its hate very well...vile

That is democracy for you. SNP not lost a Scottish election since 2007. Have a guess why we keep voting for them? Perhaps something to do with fact Westminster trouser the oil revenue while labelling us subsidy junkies?

Exactly Paul.

By my reckoning Egyptian Vulture plus cash in bank should see share price closer to £1.
Rodhette and Mugnetind weren't company makers and underwhelming.
But : both could be used as make-weight in a deal for existing production.

The good thing about working with Equinor / Var is there are lots of options going forward that might not be available otherwise.

Recent drop makes no sense to me...

Could be argued share price getting ahead of itself. However gas shortage not going to be magically resolved before we enter coldest months of year in Jan / Feb

Yeah, write off Mugnetind as being significant.
Luckily we have a big bonus with Egyptian Vulture.
Early notification a sign drill didn't go as expected and time to move on.

More buys than sell today ;-) go figure!

Hard to work out what going on here. Given share price has rebounded it looks like classic tree shake... Market Makers fishing for shares / stop losses?

As I see it : the current "silly prices" are a real bonus which allows company to accumulate cash : however we can't have cake and eat it. If gas price drops (which it will eventually) then future deals or RTOs become much more likely.

Anyone selling now is an absolute clown...

^ either of you have a Scottish vote?
reality is we don't care what you think.

^ for sure : crystal amber did great job in court. For that I take my hat off. That sadly doesn't give us any clues about the geology going forward though.