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I have to disagree, as it looks like it has bottomed out to me. Kabunga/warrant sellers have either sold through for now or will not sell lower than 4.8p.
The spread doesn't really matter when you can actually buy now at 4.96....
News definitely imminent on a number of fronts;
FEED phase 2, Offtakes, a reoptimised DFS (obviously expect NPV to be positively affected), CISRO further testing update, finance details with debt maximised and minimal dilution.
I'm excited......
SPrinter, I'm only right if ACP have published their figures correctly (which I'm certain they have). After that it was just some very simple maths, now who could get that wrong!
Around 10m of the warrants are MB's too.
O&A,
Here is my post from last week concerning finance , if it's further dilution you are concerned about. Also Bwana pointed out last week my figures don't include around $2m of liquid assets sitting on the balance sheet.
The CAPEX required is a mere $39.7m (including a $4m contingency)
If you assume the normal 70/30 debt/equity split then $28m raised via debt (short pay back period too)
Prepaid Offtakes should raise a minimum of $5m based on just 30,000tpa (this is what BlackRock have achieved).
Outstanding warrants should raise $2.6m (not including the warrants exercisable at 7p)
This leaves just $4.1m to find.....
Easy when you consider the following;
MB stated in the June 21 spongecast that he would be looking to maximise debt/equity so could easily be 80/20 split which raises an extra $4m
If the share price is over 7p (and I expect it to be) then the remaining warrants could convert raising $1.2m
Prepaid Offtakes could potentially bring in a further $5m for the remaining 30,000tpa from phase 1 production.
All of this without further dilution to existing share holders. What's not to like!
O&W, ACPs block listing review is 6 monthly not quarterly. Outstanding warrants as per the last review, 17th June 2021, were;
34,101,707 @ 2.2p
26,277,779 @3p
On 28th June the remaining warrants were block listed too with a total of 43,333,333 these breakdown as;
18,888,889 @7p
24,444,444@2.25p
Grand total of warrants outstanding 103,712,819
I 100% agree with Bwana that the majority of these (if not all if the share price is high enough) will form part of the equity in the finance raise. Personally I believe that there will be very little further dilution and the distinct possibility of none.
I struggle to understand how investors cannot see how this company is not outstanding value currently, particularly when you consider how easy finance will be.
The CAPEX required is a mere $39.7m
If you assume the normal 70/30 debt/equity split then $28m raised via debt (short pay back period too)
Prepaid Offtakes should raise a minimum of $5m based on just 30,000tpa (this is what BlackRock have achieved).
Outstanding warrants should raise $2.6m (not including the warrants exercisable at 7p)
This leaves just $4.1m to find.....
Easy when you consider the following;
MB stated in the June 21 spongecast that he would be looking to maximise debt/equity so could easily be 80/20 split which raises an extra $4m
If the share price is over 7p (and I expect it to be) then the remaining warrants could convert raising $1.2m
Prepaid Offtakes could potentially bring in a further $5m for the remaining 30,000tpa from phase 1 production.
All of this without further dilution to existing share holders. What's not to like!
Yes Wasa, you are correct a total of 103m outstanding warrants. So potentially 604m shares in issue in the future. Fingers crossed that they maximise debt versus equity in the finance raise, as alluded to by MB in the money sponge investor call the other week.
This is a new block listing for the remaining warrants that had not previously been included. They consist of the warrants granted in the following subscriptions.
30th April 2020 24,444,444 exercisable at 3.25p
28th May 2021. 18,888,889 exercisable at 7p
Find below the link for today's sponge cast with MB. A great update with ML due "any day" offtakes, finance (expecting to maximise debt versus equity) and FEED completion all due H2 and construction planned for early 2022.
https://youtube.com/channel/UCxvFzsDn_vUM5mu3pIe3Jow
Yes, my understanding it 60,000 average for the first three years focussing on high grade product. Phase 2 expansion kicks in for year 4 and increases production to 109,000. There is a year by year breakdown of targeted production in the RNS dated 5th June 2020 which you will find useful.
With regards to warrants there are another 24,444,444 (exercisable at 3.25p) from a subscription on 30th April 2020 these are not included in the block listing and need to be added to the 89 million total that you have. The block listing update is due by the 17th June so we should have a clearer picture then.
Interesting that they mention the 2 NDAs as these were first brought up in an RNS on 15th June 2020. Nearly a year later you would like to think that financing is virtually wrapped up. When the mining licence lands I would expect a rapid news flow on all fronts.
Thanks JP, I missed those warrants so another 24,444,444 to add into my calculations! I had only used the numbers from the block admissions for the 2.2p and 3.3p warrants.
Amaretto - had you added those in your calculations?
Bwana - I think we are going to be closer to your 700 million now.
However as you have both pointed out there is plenty of scope for the NPV to be considerably higher due to very conservative numbers on pricing and % of resource used.