Member Info for Haffyplan

No I'm not worried in the slightest, he is not part of the committee, so how would he know?

Find below the link for today's sponge cast with MB. A great update with ML due "any day" offtakes, finance (expecting to maximise debt versus equity) and FEED completion all due H2 and construction planned for early 2022.
https://youtube.com/channel/UCxvFzsDn_vUM5mu3pIe3Jow

Yes, my understanding it 60,000 average for the first three years focussing on high grade product. Phase 2 expansion kicks in for year 4 and increases production to 109,000. There is a year by year breakdown of targeted production in the RNS dated 5th June 2020 which you will find useful.

We are due the block listing 6 monthly update tomorrow, it will be interesting to see how many warrants have been exercised.

With regards to warrants there are another 24,444,444 (exercisable at 3.25p) from a subscription on 30th April 2020 these are not included in the block listing and need to be added to the 89 million total that you have. The block listing update is due by the 17th June so we should have a clearer picture then.

Interesting that they mention the 2 NDAs as these were first brought up in an RNS on 15th June 2020. Nearly a year later you would like to think that financing is virtually wrapped up. When the mining licence lands I would expect a rapid news flow on all fronts.

Make your decision quickly please as I'm about to add and you might as well drive the price down a little more.

Thanks JP, I missed those warrants so another 24,444,444 to add into my calculations! I had only used the numbers from the block admissions for the 2.2p and 3.3p warrants.
Amaretto - had you added those in your calculations?
Bwana - I think we are going to be closer to your 700 million now.
However as you have both pointed out there is plenty of scope for the NPV to be considerably higher due to very conservative numbers on pricing and % of resource used.

Wasa, I believe ACP do not need to RNS any warrant conversions as they completed a block admission in June last year. We only get a 6 monthly update on them now, the next update is due in June.

Duh! I wondered why it came out so high (35p) I didn't convert $ to £.... As I initially thought 50-60% of NPV which is 25-31p

Bwana, I would agree that the ESIA and ML should be granted by the end of April. I am hoping that finance is virtually all tied up (as the first RNS with regards to serious funding discussions was June 2020) and in place by the end of July. This would enable construction to start this year and hopefully production by Q4 2022 (I'm probably being optimistic). With regards to the share price I'm more conservative to start with 7-10p after the ML, 14-20p after finance. I too would imagine 600m shares will be the top end after the equity raise. At the start of production I can see the share price being around 50% of NPV which is 35p. Personally I intend to hold all until production and then I will re-evaluate my position.

I did some dummy trades around 4.20pm, to buy was 4.25p and the most they would take in one sell was 600000 shares at 4.16p

ST, we have had regular updates in my view, 13/10, 24/11, 11/01 and 17/02 with three out of four of these mentioning the ESIA. All of these gave us up to date news as to where the company is with the various workstreams. I have built my position here since 2016 and whilst progress over the last year has been frustrating I am firmly of the belief that this mine will be permitted, financed and built.

Safetrader, I believe we all share your frustration at the speed of progress however it is mendacious to suggest we have not been updated since 13th October. Below is part of the RNS from 24th November, it is clear that they are waiting for the ESIA and I believe that once this has been issued the rest will fall into place quickly.

we are pleased to announce that following a positive site visit and follow up consultation that the Environmental and Social Impact Assessment (ESIA) is also progressing and we hope to be in a positive to update further in this regard in the near future. The ESIA is one of the final necessary components in the Mining Licence process and receipt of a Mining Licence will be one of the final and most important de-risking milestones for the Project. Our financing discussions are also progressing well and we continue to see strong levels of interest as we ensure that we put the best options forward for shareholders at this exciting stage of development for Armadale."

Yes you are correct it is on just 25% of the asset. The DFS stated that it was open in multiple directions and Matt Bull stated in an investor call that it was "open in all directions". I wouldn't imagine that they would review the remaining 75% until after stage 2 has been completed. However this could potentially had significant value at some point.

The remaining 2.2p warrants don't expire until around February 2022. I would imagine that the majority will exercise after mining licence, offtakes and finance news drops.

I don't think so as they were all block listed and the 6 month review was only on 17th December, at which point there was still 43m left.

Picked this up from the HZM board.

https://twitter.com/TheMoneySponge/status/1345775368201003010

I too have been here for a few years and I agree with ems on the whole. I do intend to hold until at least production and I have always targeted for a minimum of 30p. The last update couldn't spell it out any more clearly, in my opinion, that this project will happen it's just a question of a little more patience.

I can buy again now although at a higher price!