Member Info for Gwillerz79

Yes Kingrav think you may be right could be a blip. Some of tge companies on the short tracker website look wrong!

Not sure if this has been covered but the short tracker now shows no positions open > 0.5%.

Have Systemica also significantly reduced or closed their position?

Thedogwalker...According to the half year results below the pension deficit is circa £32-34m. We have defecit repayments of circa £7m annually for the next 3 years to compensate for this.

Pensions

The Group's principal defined benefit pension scheme is in the UK. The combined deficit under IAS 19 on 30 June 2023 was £34.6m (December 2022: £42.1m), with the IAS 19 deficit for the Group main's scheme, West Midlands Bus being £32.1m (December 2022: £39.7m)

The agreed deficit repayments on the West Midlands Bus plan are £7.5m, £7.7m and £7.8m per annum for the three years from 1 April 2023.

Just seen this too. As you say Akasm I assume the new funding is only for those that are sticking to the £2 rate

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/major-150-million-funding-boost-for-local-bus-services-as-fare-cap-set-to-be-extended

I think it's about time the bod start being properly transparent on the profitability of uk bus and coach separately. We are not a charity

"We will work closely with Travel for West Midlands and Department for Transport to review the terms of the funding allocation to ensure we can protect our bus network and deliver a reliable service for our customers."

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.birminghammail.co.uk/black-country/national-express-makes-major-announcement-27970011.amp

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.birminghammail.co.uk/black-country/national-express-makes-major-announcement-27970011.amp

Looks like they are taking immediate action to cut further costs / unprofitable routes. I'm glad Gavin Williamson is taking an interest. Hopefully he will soon understand how much money we lose!

https://www.busandcoachbuyer.com/mp-campaigns-against-bus-service-cut/

https://bromsgrovestandard.co.uk/news/changes-to-bus-routes-will-affect-27-route-between-frankley-and-maypole/

https://bromsgrovestandard.co.uk/news/frankley-councillor-launches-campaign-to-prevent-changes-to-27-bus-route/

https://bromsgrovestandard.co.uk/news/frankley-councillor-launches-campaign-to-prevent-changes-to-27-bus-route/

This is all probably for the benefit of the shorters. Watch them conveniently exit whilst the price is hammered

Good article on £2 bus fare. Operators worried that it will be a severe increase when / if govt reduces funding

https://www.route-one.net/news/operators-mixed-feelings-after-latest-2-bus-fare-cap-extension/

GLG short further reduced....Good news. Are the MM helping them exit?

There is not a chance of shares being bought back after the divi cancellation. That will happen with a tender offer, hopefully after the NA sale.......exactly as FGP did

In the first group latest accounts it shows the UK bus division is doing well. Their margins for YE march 23 were up on prior year. Looking through the Internet there is an endless stream of price rises across their operations.

Their pay agreement was 18.5% too.

Fgp isn't the only one. Wood group recently disposed of the built environment business. On completion the group MC was £900m. The disposal was for $1.8b on a multiple of 17x ebitda. The disposal represented 20% of group revenues.

Thanks fish. No probs. It shows me 2 paras only and asks me to subscribe.

If anyone has the full article, can you please copy any paste? Thanks

Hopelessvalue I agree with your thinking on valuation. I see a range of $1.2b to $1.5b. First student must be dying to get their hands on this jewel to completely solidify their market position. I also think student transport of anerica would also very very attracted to it as it would move them from 3rd largest student transport provider in the US to joint 1st.

When first group sold first student and first travel for $4.6b the whole company had a market cap of £1.1b (with debt also). So I don't see the worries around our market cap and the attributable value for NA.

It will not get approved for sale by shareholders if they don't get a very good valuation. The board know this. The First Student sale was marginally approved only as they felt it was significantly undervalued at 8.9x Ebitda.

It will either go for far in excess of £300m or not at all.

FY 2023 EBIT now expected to be in the range of £175m to £185m

No they are forecasting ebit at 175 to 185. Not ebitda.

Have a look at the hy presentation. They did a bridge of operating profit ((ebit) £57.5 h1 to £207.5 for the full year.

That 200 to 215 estimated ebit now reduced to 175 to 185.

They are still very cash generative. Ebitda should be 400m gbp or 489 usd.

I think the group delivered a total ebitda of £167m in H1 with an ebit of £57.5m. They are forecasting an ebit of £120m ish in H2 or the equivelant of £230m ebitda in H2.

Full year group ebitda should be c£400m or $484m usd