Member Info for Gwillerz79

Their already shot reputations will be dragged further through the sh*t if they don't deliver on this for a respectable value.

I'm very thankful the refinancing was done as others have mentioned

Paddboy. First student was sold on 8.9x ebitda. They fetched $3.6b (when excl first transit) for $2.5B of annual sales and 43000 buses. We operate 22,000 buses, revenue of $1.3billion and ebitda of over c$160 to c185m (subject to shuttle clarification).

Nearly half across of these metrics. There also appears to be a lot of consolidation in the school bus sector

I'd be surprised if conversations hadn't already taken place rather than going into this review blind.

I'm not sure an ev / pbt is a fair valuation. In this case you are double counting the debt. If you are assuming another party would pay the debt as part of the price (hence enterprise value), I don't think its then fair to compare to earnings after the interest in that same debt.

This is why typical valuations would be ev / ebitda or PE ratio. Both of which would not double count the debt.

The more I look at this the more I feel positive. I really can see debt being cleared with any sale. We are then left with a very cash generative business with a mcap of only c£350m!

Student transportation of America is the 3rd largest school bus company in the US with 16000 vehicles. It was acquired in 2018 with only 13.500 vehicles for $1.1billion.

We currently have in excess of 20,000 vehicles

https://www.goodmans.ca/expertise/case/student-transportation-acquired-for-us1-1-billion-by-a-group-of-investors-led-by-cdpq

Last year NA delivered $84.7m operating profit on sales of $1.3b. $84.7m was after depreciation.

Deprecation for the group was $264m for the year on sales of $3.36b.

A broad brush allocation of depreciation would therefore be $102m fir NA

Hence $84.7 + $102m depreciation added back is broad brush $186.7m ebitda. @ 8

9x multiple would be $1,661m sale value or £1,384m.

Not sure how much of this is shuttle

When first group sold its us school bus business it did so at 8.9x ebitda.

It was sold during covid but with the ebitda value being related to its march 2020 results (I.e normalised prior to the impact of covid).

Larger shareholders were very unhappy with this

Marybr190 exactly what I was thinking. 888 all over again.

Well I suspect conversations have already taken place with interested parties. They have been fairly specific on timings etc

Not it would be a board decision for the train company of which the Cosmens would have at least one member sat. I suspect discussions have already taken place given we were mentioned in the initial press release. Things may have changed of course

Cosmens

I'd be surprised if they were to pump 10s of millions into this as an investor. Far more likely though that they are involved in the running of the trains particularly if the cozmens are one of the largest shareholders in the venture

Thanks Damofarl. Let's hope we hear positive news on this at some point!

In the meantime I'll enjoy seeing Anoh commence and receiving the healthy dividends!!

Thanks Damofarl.

Apologies I didn't mean wasted time collecting the yield / being invested. I believe the existing assets / Anoh deserve a much higher rating than the current share price without MPNU. I was talking more about the wasted management time in what seems like a never ending process.

Apologies I'm just getting frustrated with it!

Will it ever get done or are we just wasting time in a distraction?

20 months since this acquisition was announced. Total joke

As long as they are still forecasting £150m operating profit fir h2 I'll be happy with that. That will indicate circa £267m of Ebitda for h2 compared to £167m hor h1.

If they can do this and deliver on their forecast from HY, it will show improvement in alsa, UK, and North America.

If they are comfortable to go ahead with the acquisition, they must be very confident on debt overall. I will take this acquisition as a big positive.

£267m of Ebitda on H2 will take us very nicely into 2024.

Https://citywire.com/za/news/top-value-investors-bet-on-9-yielding-mobico-as-shares-hit-new-lows/a2426642

Updated article from yesterday

https://espiral21.com/alsa-se-posiciona-como-rival-de-global-con-la-compra-de-1844/

Old article and different company I think

A couple of decent sized sells going through after hours today. Hopefully closer to getting them cleared