Member Info for Gwillerz79

Alsa innovating again

https://futuretransport-news.com/bus-nautic-zero-emission-boat-service-launched-in-barcelona/

Qube below 0.5% now

Sorry not sure if this has been posted

https://www.thebusinessdesk.com/westmidlands/news/2087400-bus-fares-to-rise-as-industry-struggles-to-meet-rising-costs

Great posts on franchising. I'm massively in favour of franchising as an mcg shareholder. I'm not in favour of it as a taxpayer!

We are shortchanged significantly in the WM. It will transition from that to being operated by local authorities, reinstatement of loss making routes and a cost plus model. Then imagine that across the whole country.

So, as I understand the forecast for this year is £195m underlying EBIT. Adding back depreciation and amortisation of roughly £220m results in a forecast of £415m EBITDA for the full year.

We achieved £220m ebitda (underlying) in H2 of last year. If we achieve say £200m of Ebitda in H1 our rolling 12 month ebitda at H1 will be £420m and at full year will be around £415m for the full year

I know there are some assumptions here but is my thinking correct?

I know we are hedged to an extent but oil prices have been dropping quite a lot over the last 2 months.

Brent currently $76 per barrell down from $90 in early April. Will be good for inflation too

I think that's the key point. IF it gets signed off. It makes you wonder what terms the regulators are looking for given Lokpibiri has said it could be signed imminently from his perpective.

More delays!! Any potential new investors must be rubbing their hands together at the thought of putting money into this country.....NOT!

Maybe a better strategy here would be to cancel this deal and start investing in other jurisdictions that are investor friendly. Just a thought!! It's no wonder the majors want out!

Not the uodate I was hoping to see this morning. Looks like the SP will tell us what it thinks of that

Yes, please, alex. Would really like to see!!

I see the acquisition completed in March. Does anyone know how much we are paying in full? I know there was a 6m deposit that had been paid?

Deal was signed in Feb 22. Sounds ridiculous when you say it back!!

Their words can't be trusted. I don't believe anything they say. The haven't been on the ball for a long time. Get them booted NOW!

Why are these 2 muppets still employed. I wouldn't trust them to drive bus. Sack them and get some competent management in

Re the valuation. I think the issue here is that the value of the group as a whole is smaller than what investors believe is the true value if its parts.

First group is a good comparison. The MC when the sale was agreed was £1b and it had £3b of debt. Yet the sale of the US business netted £3.5b. 3.5x its MC and only £500m short of its full EV. They didn't want the rest. Only the US bit. And they really wanted it.

Similar situation with WG and the environmental business business. It sold for 17x its division ebitda @ £1.7b.

Looking at historical valuations the US school bus businesses go for good prices. X11 to x12 ebitda. They like the stability of earnings and the shift to greener solutions. Along with the huge subsidies and grants being pumped into the industry by the US government (latest $1b just announced https://news.bloomberglaw.com/environment-and-energy/white-house-awards-1-billion-in-grants-for-clean-school-buses)

I don't know what the value will be. But I certainly don't think it will go cheaply. FG sold the US school bus business only for $3.3b and we are half the size and number 2 in the US market. The synergies alone could create huge value If First student or Student Transport of America showed their hand.

I can't believe interest wasn't shown before the board declared their strategic review had taken place.

It is frustrating and I'm irritated by management. However I'm far more relieved than that the ebit is in line and that leverage is similar to HY. This is a big relief for me.

Uk and NA are both in line with expectations. Expectations were thst we we making £125m ebit in h2 vs £57.5m in h1. This suggests things are improving operationally.

NA being in line also means there is no spanner in the works for its potential sale.

Https://www.autobusesyautocares.com/texto-diario/mostrar/4723283/cnmc-autoriza-compra-grupo-1844-parte-alsa

I'd be very happy with confirmation of interest

Systemica down by 0.1%. Not huge but helps

Jorge...."Igacio, I really want Grupo. We need to consolidate the Canaries. Its €80m by the way..."

Ignacio..."Jorge my cash cow....Good to speak. How much does it make?"

Jorge.. "€2.6m net but I'll significantly improve. Cost savings will be huge too. Trust me Chico....I'll make it work"

Ignacio...."Crack on Jorge. I trust you"

Jorge...."Ignacio..just seen latest trading update. Are you sure we can afford it?

Ignacio..."Jorge. We have loads of interest. Loads want the Yankie business. I've had offers already but playing them off against each other. They are desperate for it. Get Grupo bought....big cash is on Its way"

Ignacio..." Great news, Jorge. I'll get it bought!"

Ignacio...."I know we are close so just letting you know out of courtesy I'm loading up on shares too"

Not sure if this has been posted before. Seems to suggest there is a much bigger pie to take control of across the Canaries and Grupo 1844 will assist them in achieving that. It makes sense Alsa would not want to be the market leader in Soain but not have a similar market position in the Canaries.

https://www.elconfidencial.com/espana/islas-canarias/2024-01-02/transporte-regulado-viajeros-canarias-millones_3801156/