Member Info for Gwillerz79

Hi joseywales. I just can't see this happening. Firstly trading is forecast to be significantly better in H2 (£267m ebitda) if I'm correct and they are still committing to getting leverage down significantly to between 1.5 and 2 x ebitda by q1 25.

Not only that but they have just reinstated the dividend. It would be a very uncomfortable situation for the board to do that and subsequently do a rights issue. I just can't see it. Their positions would become untenable. They could knock £40m per year off the debt by just cancelling the divi. There are no signs this will happen.

No Eurooean Express Enterprises? Is this incorrect or have they sold out?

Yes that disparity is getting quite large. The gbp doesn't seem to want to budge

If it got to 40p as some are suggesting it would equate to a market cap of £254m with a yield of nearly 17% at 6.7p per year.

Alternatively they could cancel the divi and buyback £31m of shares with the 5p equivelant to 12.2% of all shares. It would have a huge uplift in the SP.

If it got anywhere near this price I would be selling up other everything and piling in here.

I'm actually hoping it's a sell. The sooner our seller finishes the better. Impossible to say if its a buy or sell given after hours notification

The thing I'm surprised at is the margins being used in his model? We are now guiding 210m ish for full year on sales of 3.2billion. Hence 6.5% opeeating margin split as 3.6% h1 and 9.2% h2. H1 clearly poor as all costs taken and little recovery.

H2 should become more "normal" albeit slight weighting to h2 as is usually the case.

160m ish operating profit h2 means c 260m ebitda for 6 months. Hence can someone explain why the upside scenario is 5% margin?

I would have hoped that given results were out at the end of July that they had 1/6th of knowledge for h2. Hence it would need to be a pretty devasting final 5 months or incompetence on the part of the board to be materially wrong.

Hi trek I think its x div today. Holding up really well considering.

Cheers Seatank very helpful

Thanks seatank that sounds positive. Do you have any idea how much net production will be added to Seplat with Anoh?

I doesn't look great with an international roadshow to attract investment with outstanding divestments still on the table. Please invest here but you will only divest on our terns....Let's hope sense prevails

So h1 ebitda of £167m and forecast £100m better h2 (£150m op profit h2 vs £57m h1). This guides £260m ebitda h2 or £427m ebitda for the year.

With net debt of £900m and mc £575m we have a guidance ev/ebitda of 3.45x. Our 5 year average multiple is 8.2x. Our market cap on constant debt needs to move to £2.6b (or £4.20 SP) to get back to this average.

This is despite

- Debt forecast to fall

- Inflation falling

- Growth in sales

- Much better h2 than h1 heading into 24

If management deliver (and their confidence suggests they will) we could be in for some decent upside here

I'm really happy with these. In particular debt down, cash generation and full year guidance.

They are telling us £200 to 215m full year operating profit. That means £150m ish in H2 and an ebitda of circa £250m ish in H2. That's a very healthy run rate moving into 24.

We have had a lot of the impact of inflation so far and little of the benefit. I'm very happy with those.

Hi Tom. Its next Friday I think according to Seplat website. Cheers

Upcoming events

6M 2023 results

28 July 2023

Changeofpace....this is from last years accounts

Fuel costs

Fuel cost represents approximately 8% of revenue. The Group is fully hedged for 2023 at an average price of 49.3p per litre; around 56.3% hedged for 2024 at an average price of 50.6p; and around 22.9% hedged for 2025 at an average price of 55.9p. This compares to an average hedged price in 2020, 2021 and 2022 of 37.2p, 37.8p and 37.5p respectively.

As you say Tom someone is keen. Let's hope we hear some good news soon!

Yes saw those Tom....and another couple of decent buys reported after the bell tonight too!

Https://allafrica.com/stories/202307120348.html

Are apparently not blocking any deals....

"Kyari, however said yesterday the company had no hand in scuttling divestment plans of multinational oil companies.

He said rather than blocking deals, the NNPC is now the competition and the Petroleum Industry Act has better placed the National Oil Company on a solid ground to even divest some of its holdings.

He urged players in the oil and gas industry to be on the look out because the NNPC will be putting some of its assets for sale"

I totally agree. I think they are doing a fantastic job in the circumstances. Look at where they were in early October last year and the corresponding SP too. No power, production stopped etc. Yet SP was higher than today.

Now we have stable / growing production and strong cash. Can't ask for any more in the circumstances

Thanks Darkblue. Sorry missed that

I thought we were increasing fares here? Anyone know why tge change of mind?

https://bromsgrovestandard.co.uk/news/national-express-west-midlands-fares-to-remain-capped-at-2/