Member Info for Gwillerz79

Confirmed for 5th Jan in the WM. Hopefully we ste also seeing some benefit from the Megabus closure a week ago

https://www.expressandstar.com/news/2024/12/14/single-bus-fares-set-to-rise/

Looks like NNPC and Chevron did it with their JV recently (Shallow Water)

https://www.nnpcgroup.com/insights/nnpc-ltd-chevron-jv-concludes-conversion-of-assets-into-pia-terms-as-partners-eye-jv-s-165-000-bopd-oil-production-target-by-dec-2024

OK so thinking a little more about it. I've seen some concerns about the need for possible financing to fund the capex etc.

I suppose a positive of the high tax rate is that we get full tax relief on the capex and interest being absorbed. Given it generated >420m pre tax CFFO in H1, there is more than enough operating cashflow to make the necessary investments and get full tax relief on that capex....IE....the government will effectively be paying for the seplat side of the capex investment to get these assets back to where they should be.

In addition, we have some big hitters on the shareholder register that surely would have raised the same concerns and subsequently had answers they were happy with? The major holders will have had visibility on what they were buying and surely would have raised the same concerns?

Also? The other majors are leaving and those assets are being bought? Other buyers obviously see the attractiveness in the oil najor divestments?

Apologies but I'm hystvtring ti think of the positives before Thursday

Because we have paid a lot of money for a company thst doesn't make money

Well Roger. The market talks with its money. It feels like tge company has misled us here? Not once have they talked about the scale od tax in 3 years.

Suggest you get your notes ready for Thursday ti start justifying this transaction? Can we revert please to just existing seplat + anoh?

Hi e43. A net 20% return would be 160m net on 800m debt.

The best post tax cffo in the last 3 years was 130m. At say 6% (min) we have a minum of 50m in interest to come off this. Hence the best scenario in the last 3 years would have been a net return of 80m on 800m debt.

It's no surprise the government were so worried about this transaction. Its their cash cow (not ours).

Can anyone explain why this is transformational for us?

Huge revenue, huge fields, huge ebitda, huge pre tax CFFO, huge tax, very low return?

The only way this changes is a change in tax rates?

Aex.....thanks fir the input. W

I'm struggling to see now why we have bought these with such an obscene rate of tax? Why would we invest anything in mpnu fields? In fatt......why have we bought mpnu?

Having seen the prospectus I'm not sure ebitda or pre tax CFFO are worth talking about? So much of it disappears in tax.

Why would you invest in these assets when so much disappears in tax?

Great info Alex. Hopefully we will get further info soon on progress and expected completion date.

Looking forward to this gap between us and others reducing as the market understand the scale of growth

Good news if this happens. Final confirmation on 4th December I think

Qube declaring 0.5%. They had 0.48% in June when they dropped out the tracker. Maybe they didn't go below this?

21p offer just released. 40% premium to market price

Continues to strengthen against the £. Makes those improving US results even better. Also hopefully makes any US acquisition more valuable in GBP terms

If they could use some of the proceeds to purchase 10 more Canarybus equivelants I would be very happy with that.

IIRC it's a circa €72m acquisition value and >€9m EBIT. More of those would be very nice in areas we operate!

Hi Siborg. It's on Thursday

Alsa references Megabus. Fingers crossed for more growth....

https://bus-news.com/national-express-expands-capacity-on-uk-coach-network/

Looks like the single fare is going to £2.90 according to this.

https://www.birminghammail.co.uk/black-country/national-express-confirms-new-bus-30250342?int_source=amp_continue_reading&int_medium=amp&int_campaign=continue_reading_button#amp-readmore-target

Oil price tanking 6%, UK fares increasing, Megabus significantly reducing operations and German fares increasing

And we are down today....

2m trade just gone through at 72.55