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Cheers Seatank very helpful
Thanks seatank that sounds positive. Do you have any idea how much net production will be added to Seplat with Anoh?
I doesn't look great with an international roadshow to attract investment with outstanding divestments still on the table. Please invest here but you will only divest on our terns....Let's hope sense prevails
So h1 ebitda of £167m and forecast £100m better h2 (£150m op profit h2 vs £57m h1). This guides £260m ebitda h2 or £427m ebitda for the year.
With net debt of £900m and mc £575m we have a guidance ev/ebitda of 3.45x. Our 5 year average multiple is 8.2x. Our market cap on constant debt needs to move to £2.6b (or £4.20 SP) to get back to this average.
This is despite
- Debt forecast to fall
- Inflation falling
- Growth in sales
- Much better h2 than h1 heading into 24
If management deliver (and their confidence suggests they will) we could be in for some decent upside here
I'm really happy with these. In particular debt down, cash generation and full year guidance.
They are telling us £200 to 215m full year operating profit. That means £150m ish in H2 and an ebitda of circa £250m ish in H2. That's a very healthy run rate moving into 24.
We have had a lot of the impact of inflation so far and little of the benefit. I'm very happy with those.
Hi Tom. Its next Friday I think according to Seplat website. Cheers
Upcoming events
6M 2023 results
28 July 2023
Changeofpace....this is from last years accounts
Fuel costs
Fuel cost represents approximately 8% of revenue. The Group is fully hedged for 2023 at an average price of 49.3p per litre; around 56.3% hedged for 2024 at an average price of 50.6p; and around 22.9% hedged for 2025 at an average price of 55.9p. This compares to an average hedged price in 2020, 2021 and 2022 of 37.2p, 37.8p and 37.5p respectively.
As you say Tom someone is keen. Let's hope we hear some good news soon!
Yes saw those Tom....and another couple of decent buys reported after the bell tonight too!
Are apparently not blocking any deals....
"Kyari, however said yesterday the company had no hand in scuttling divestment plans of multinational oil companies.
He said rather than blocking deals, the NNPC is now the competition and the Petroleum Industry Act has better placed the National Oil Company on a solid ground to even divest some of its holdings.
He urged players in the oil and gas industry to be on the look out because the NNPC will be putting some of its assets for sale"
I totally agree. I think they are doing a fantastic job in the circumstances. Look at where they were in early October last year and the corresponding SP too. No power, production stopped etc. Yet SP was higher than today.
Now we have stable / growing production and strong cash. Can't ask for any more in the circumstances
Thanks Darkblue. Sorry missed that
I thought we were increasing fares here? Anyone know why tge change of mind?
https://bromsgrovestandard.co.uk/news/national-express-west-midlands-fares-to-remain-capped-at-2/
Yes I've been watching too. Wesley Ter Haar is certainly a character
Hi Seatank. Agreed on Anoh and looking forward to it coming online. Fingers crossed we do get first gas in Q4 which will take production in excess of 60k bopd all things being equal.
I'm certainly also enjoying the articles on Tinubu too. Moving to more free market, less regulation etc. He is certainly saying the right things in terms of being more investor friendly. I've also only just realised he is an ex Exxon employee
Good question Tom.
Does anyone know also what MPNU actually produces? I know it was 95k net in 2020?
Given current production of 17,800 bpd and the hedging in place does anyone of an estimate of current level of Ebitda?
Thanks
Oops sorry forgot link
https://twitter.com/OpeBee/status/1666820486293254145?t=2iRJqMkmOltBHelw6QK1gQ&s=19
Thanks Seatank I'm getting that impression too. I also see Liam Mallon (exxon) met up with Tinubu a few days ago.
Wonder what was discussed?
Blakeley and his cohorts have destroyed shareholder value here on an epic scale. He and the CFO should resign immediately