Member Info for Gunsup

Anyhow with this one. What we get lockdown not a good idea imo.. Economy still not recovered..

Jcb

Respect

"I'm still waiting to get Covid for the first time "...

Maybe you have and not known or maybe you has some kind of immunity... Something some say about Eyam and the plague and how descendants got immunity to all sorts of virus..

Africa as a nation had low vaccine rate and low Covid mortality rate..

Is a complex thing that for sure..

All I would say on this one...

What we know

Covid, flu (various), Ebola, Dengue, smallpox etc etc... Through our history we have seen experienced many deadly pandemics and continue to do so.. Many now are almost endemic

So what next HN51? Govt has ordered 5 million shots. 15% of the population... So who does and does not get one? US stockpile for monkey and smallpox..

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/health/other/five-million-doses-of-bird-flu-vaccine-bought-by-uk-to-prepare-for-pandemic/ar-AA1vbGr4?ocid=BingNewsVerp

I am no fan of the vaccine. My friend still not back at work and he could be a body double for Mitch Green.

None of my children had it either...

In the end is a personal choice.. Unless your employment says you has to have it..

If you have a family tragedy then for sure you will be having it...

STP

Morning Bros.

For sure the Uk debt clock should be causing alarm.. No point gloating about the French situation when our own house is on fire...

Japan, USA, Uk, Italy etc etc all with very serious problems.

Gold is up for a good reason.. Be very cautious.

As Mr Barnier he said debt repayments at 60billion euros..

Uk OBR own data.

"As shown below, in 2024-25 we expect debt interest spending to total £89.0 billion. That would represent 7.3 per cent of total public spending and is equivalent to nearly 3.2 per cent of national income".

https://obr.uk/forecasts-in-depth/tax-by-tax-spend-by-spend/debt-interest-central-government-net/

Mr Charlie Nunn has spoken on this issue and it not good. This one worth a read.

He say

"Lloyds Banking Group's chief executive, Charlie Nunn, has warned that the controversy surrounding now-prohibited motor finance deals could pose a threat to the UK economy.

Speaking at the Financial Times’ Global Banking Summit, Nunn stated that the shock court ruling in October over 'secret' car loan commissions "creates an investability problem" for Britain’s wider consumer finance sector"..

Is also saying

" If this case is upheld at the Supreme Court, it could cost the industry anywhere between £6bn to £23bn, according to analysts.

https://www.thebanker.com/UK-car-finance-probe-fuels-investability-problem-warns-Lloyds-CEO-1733312305

STP

For sure that is the case.

Trump also getting on on the wrong foot imo , Tariffs are not the answer. Now he threatening 100% on BRICS and those who de dollarize. is desperate stuff.

My worry with this one is what the West going to do to shift the blame and cover this up? direct conflict with Russia. Is only a foot step away?

Onlyif

For sure the West is collapsing from its periphery imo. How many times we seen this before with empires?

Mostly self inflicted wounds... We have been feeding those who are now coming to devour us. You only have to look at Chinas growth and Europes stagnation /decline to get an insight into what has gone wrong..

No matter who is in charge the whole potemkin village ( europe) has been built on the shifting sands and is falling apart. One more shock wave and down it goes.

Tav...

Morning Bros..

Ah yes the power game...

Not forget the USA doing very nicely after the Russia gas embargos..

3rd Dec,

"France, Netherlands receive 11 US cargoes on month

Over half of US LNG cargoes went to Europe".

Uk had 8 cargoes...

"European gas inventories were around 85% full as of Dec. 1, according to the latest Aggregated Gas Storage Inventory data, reflecting a drawdown of more than 10% over November as a cold snap and supply concerns prompted withdrawals and higher gas prices. European storage levels dropped below 90% on Nov. 19, driving the Platts assessments for spot LNG cargoes into Northwest Europe to a year-high of $14.80/MMBtu on Nov. 21"....

https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/lng/120324-france-netherlands-were-top-destinations-for-us-lng-in-november-as-flows-shift-to-europe

Maybe they think..

House of Parliament is twinned with the Monaco...😂😂😂

88

£350 per month heating allowance ...Let me guess this one. No tax to pay.

Lords £323 a day, just for signing in and that one tax free also. Turn up 145 days and thats 50K tax free..

Soon anyone on basic state pension be paying tax as do those on minimum wage.

Side hustle over £1K you pay tax.

This imo is not right.

Bloom

Good luck with that one. Last coal plant in the UK, Ratcliffe-on-Soar, closed at midnight on 30th September 2024..

Still we has the legacy issues still to deal with...

In 2022-23 the public safety and subsidence team carried out 10,476 mine entry inspections and responded to 770 mining hazards and subsidence claims.

In 1913 there were 3,024 deep mines producing coal..

100 yrs on...2013 just 9...

1700 Great Britain was producing 2.7 million tonnes of coal per year, mostly for use in metal production.

1800 Great Britain was producing 10 million tonnes of coal, driven by the rising demand of the Industrial Revolution

1900 Great Britain was producing 250 million tonnes of coal.

By 2004 power station such as Drax were importing 50% if the coal they burned.

Bloom

Not sure that the whole story but it for sure the bottom line. Many countries use renewables ..But.....

Cable co gather info from 3883 energy suppliers world wide.

If we focus on Western Europe.

"The cheapest electricity in Western Europe is in Norway, where the average price of one kWh is USD 0.093. The Åland Islands (USD 0.118) is the second cheapest in Western Europe followed by Andorra (USD 0.127). Denmark is the most expensive in the region at USD 0.350. The UK (USD 0.251) is the 5th most expensive in Western Europe and comes 190th in the world for cheap electricity.

They say

"Almost every European nation is cheaper. Most African nations? Cheaper. There are even island nations where energy production is especially difficult that charge less than we are charged in the UK. These results simply restate what we already know: UK citizens are paying far too much for their energy"

"https://www.cable.co.uk/energy/worldwide-pricing/#:~:text=Almost%20every%20European,for%20their%20energy.

Ah this it..3 September 2024

Look Like 9 licenses in AR6

"A total of nine offshore wind farm contracts have been awarded by the government after last year's auction failed to attract any bidders at all.

The contracts are part of a wider slate of green energy projects that also include tidal and solar power, and will provide enough electricity to fuel the equivalent of 11 million UK homes, the government said.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c86ldzve4neo

Stagecoach

Respect.

The problem the Uk has is trying to find a low cost energy source. Off shore wind is expensive that one. My friend he work SSE. They not bid I think was AR5 as the tariff to low Sept 2023... I think that no one actually bids so in Nov Govt increase the strike price..

"The maximum strike price has been increased by 66% for offshore wind projects, from £44/MWh to £73/MWh, and by 52% for floating offshore wind projects, from £116/MWh to £176/MWh ahead of Allocation Round 6 (AR6) next year"

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/boost-for-offshore-wind-as-government-raises-maximum-prices-in-renewable-energy-auction

MV

Who know what Tomorrow bring but currently wind it produce almost half of the nations power.. If you include all renewables circa the 55%..

So 16 GW..

Drax it produced 1.30GW when it burned coal. 2.60GW with biomass...

So just over 12 power station the size of Drax worth....

No one size fit all , but eaking out the fossil fuel as long as possible not a bad thing...

Coal 135yrs (estimate )

Oil 52yrs (estimate)

Gas 45yrs (estimate)

2020 figures so I has knocked off 4 yrs from the data

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/years-of-fossil-fuel-reserves-left

lti

no good beating yourself up over this thing. the demographic change genie it well and truly out of the bottle..

if you look at birth rate stats you will see that even if illegal immigration stop and even immigration as the whole the demographic of uk set for a continuous change to change.

in 2022

source ons

"in england and wales, 30.3% of all live births were to non-uk-born mothers in 2022; an increase from

28.8% in 2021, continuing the long-term trend of the percentage of live births to non-uk-born mothers

generally increasing.

in 2022, india replaced romania as the most common country of birth for non-uk-born mothers, and

****stan as the most common country of birth for non-uk-born fathers.

in 2022, two-thirds of live births in london occurred to parents where either one or both parents were born

outside of the uk; london continues to have the highest percentage of such births out of all the english

regions and wales".

all you need focus on is how the govt in power going to cover the costs...

Gary

Lloyds have made the provision for £450m.

Now where it get interesting. Finance arm for this is

Black Horse Limited Annual Report and Accounts 2023.. Member of lloyds bank group...

They say :

During the year a provision of £324,000,000 was recognised for the potential impact of the FCA review into historical motor finance commission arrangements and sales ..

2023 accounts which cover this...

https://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/assets/pdfs/investors/financial-performance/other-subsidiaries/2023/q4/2023-bh-annual-report.pdf

So the question I would ask is what is the actual liability of the parent company.

Black Horse Limited Annual Report and Accounts 2023.. Member of lloyds bank group...

One for the Lloyds crew..

Check this out..

OBR brief guide...Oct 2024

public services, state pensions and debt interest. In 2024-25, we expect it to spend £1,276.2 billion, equivalent to around "£45,000 per household or 45.3 per cent of national income.

Whether it will spend more or less than it raises – in other words whether it will run a budget deficit or surplus. In 2024-25, we expect a deficit of £127.5 billion. Because the growth in receipts outpaces that of spending, we expect the deficit to fall over the next five years to £70.6 billion"..

Thats gone up a lot over past decade.... Do that take into account the thing like pension uplift etc?

https://obr.uk/forecasts-in-depth/brief-guides-and-explainers/public-finances/#:~:text=In%202024-25%2C%20we%20expect%20it%20to%20spend%20%C2%A31%2C276.2,2024-25%2C%20we%20expect%20a%20deficit%20of%20%C2%A3127.5%20billion.

Morning bros..

Not seen any evidence to support takeover of Lloyd or any of its subsidiaries..

Just a bit of wishful thinking I am guessing.

If it was Peter Lynch's fair value would calc be a banger

His formula is Fair Value = Earnings Growth Rate x TTM EPS

Sadly this one if same formula applied to other banks still be near bottom of pile..

Bloom

For sure security major major major concern... Diversifying supply grid may help mitigate that. But what is totally secure energy? Shipping LPG? Nuclear power plant? Shipping oil?

Share your thought...