Member Info for Gunsup

Bloom

Respect

For sure you didn't vote for Trump but what he say and does affects your life one ways or the other...

Uk going through the gears building its own defence umbrella now it realise the NATO one has a lot of holes in it..

In Sheffield gun barrel maker Forgemaster expanding rapidly into an enormous new facility and apprentices hired ( The new machine shop building, measuring 275m by 110m and standing 36.5m high) ... In other areas such as Barrow similar expansion taking place...

The cost will be eye watering ... Think of a number call it a black hole them quadruple it... Talk of 2.5% to 5% spend in the pipeline... Is a lot of money we are talking and it has to be found ASAP..

Taxes in one guise or another have to rise and that will drag on the economy as I see it....Good for the weapons industry that is for sure and the stock prices certainly an indicator of this. In their wake Critical metals for sure a hot topic...

Look like the Jenga tower AKA the broader markets are have pieces removed at an ever increasing rate.

WISE moving its primary listing to NY does not bode well as other key players may follow..

Mr TFE was a good posting with the bigger list.

Geoffrey

Respect

"would you run your family finances to such levels of debt"...

The West is a debt based economy...

As For running a household. You would soon run into problems if you let in lots of lodgers who pay nothing and in the end will eat you out of the house and home..

Morning Bros.

So what Margaret Hilda Roberts have to say..

"Do you know that one of the great problems of our age is that we are governed by people who care more about feelings than they do about thoughts and ideas".

Margaret Thatcher

Hence even today you do an "offensive" tweet and you can kiss the baby..

Enter the country illegally and its pandoras box for you...

So what else been going on...

Well Natwest back in private ownership.. Trouble is now the public purse no longer has its back or any other bank for that matter.. Bail in the new bail out...

Dollar still on the downward slide. Deliberate debasement ?: you make your own mind up..

Drums of war beating ever louder.. So how that sector doing....

Chemring figures out today "Record H1 order intake of £488m and order book of £1,304m, the highest in Chemring's history"..

Which bring me to another quote as this being paid for by someone..

"The government has no money of its own. It's all your money".

Margaret Thatcher

PB 2 x100 1x50

Bloom

The least productive part of the economy are those not employed... Now this what they should be "entitled to" is a matter for serious debate.. As it stand many being paid more as a package than those working and that imo is a scandal..

Bloom

Respect ..

The pension act 2004 saved the tax payer a lot of money that is for sure. Requiring the PPF fund to be funded by companies to the tune of over circa £100m in 2025. 2023/24, the total levy invoiced was £173 million, down from £385 million the previous levy year. We will see what happen when the next biggy go pear shape. Uk sailing close to the wind on some of those. Is all in the purple book...

As for public sector being non productive... How many companies make money from public sector? Arms makers, hospital supplies, education, the list is endless.. Plus those employee spend money in the economy.

By all mean have private NHS, Private police, Private school, private waste collection but this cost you dear and as you know with the health care pre existing conditions not covered..

You live in what we say a very black and white world when mostly it is grey. The railways I would be describe as this a quasi public/ private provider.

You forget one thing with private pension scheme. At one time many well funded with the member having contribution holidays but what happen?

Ant

Respect

You are a wise man that is for sure but we know what happen when a private company play the fast and lose with its pension fund.. Bosses privatise the profits and nationalise the losses. i.e the pension liabilities.. How many times we see this...?

Morning Bros..

The pension conundrum..

Well let put this one under the microscope... My Dad retire from NHS he has a good pension that is for sure my mum also...

So how the scheme going..In 2022-23 was reported

"The Scheme has surplus cash due to income exceeding pension benefit payments, and the £4.35 billion will be returned to Treasury during 2022-

23.

The Scheme is currently operating with a net cash surplus ..

Many changes over the years, Final salary to average salary and contributions increased to max 13.5%..

Not all is as it may appear in the MSM..

More important what is POTUS up to... EU tariffs best he think again... USA at risk of pushing Europe back into the arms of Russia,,,FED looking like it quietly actioning QE..picking up the pieces of the lack lustre bond sales...

Note also m2(v) not at 1.38 velocity of money slowing down in the USA..

Tariffs causing major problems as firms up pre tariff orders distorting GDP figures...

Plenty going on...

Morning Bros..

"US Treasury Department saw soft demand for the $16bn sale of 20-year bonds. The weak bond sale reinforced the view that investors are shying away from US assets". Hence the three major US stock indexes were down more than 1pc each yesterday .. Yields on 10 yr bond rose.

Japan also struggling to get its bonds away. Yields on long-dated Japanese government bonds rose to new records...

Not good for an economy struggling with tapering its debt purchases..

The economic war seems to be ramping itself up..

Skier1

Respect..

You make lot of the good points.

Trump wanting to use Tariffs to reduce income tax...

"As of April 9th, the newly imposed tariffs were projected to generate $206.6 billion in federal revenue and slash imports by 30% in 2025".

Re shoreing industry and tax offset more than just political.. Some may say long overdue commonsense. But come with a big warning expect much higher inflation..

Bloom

For sure that is the case.. Create enough barriers and the black market and work a round they kick in..

But trade barriers and tariffs also key in protecting Home sectors..

Been going on in one guise or another for a long time..

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_tariffs_in_the_United_States:

1844

President Abraham Lincoln declared, "Give us a protective tariff and we will have the greatest nation on earth."

William McKinley - another "America First" Republican president - Tariff Act of 1890.

The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, a Republican measure that imposed hundreds of import duties, is generally agreed to have worsened the Great Depression.

Skier1

Respect...But this one..Not how the world works..

"As an independent trading nation, the UK now has 39 trade agreements in place with 73 partners. These agreements are in force for 72 partners. The UK signed an agreement with Comoros (12 April 2022) under the economic partnership agreement with Eastern and Southern African countries (ESA), and will be covered by this agreement when they bring it into effect domestically"..

Others include: As example.

Free trade deals with Norway, japan, Australia, new zealand, singapore and CPTTP.

Ant

Respect..

For sure crops not going to do well. Uk already over reliant on food imports..

UK You tuber "Harrys farm" His fields looking like a dust bowl..

Morning bros..

in 2024, UK exports of goods and services to the EU were £358 billion (41% of all UK exports). Imports from

the EU were £454 billion (51% of the UK total).

2 May 2025 Total UK exports to United States amounted to £196.3 billion

total UK imports from United States amounted to £118.3 billion

Now Mr Starmer..

"Sir Keir Starmer has repeatedly rejected suggestions that the UK will need to choose between partnerships with Europe or America, saying the national interest “demands that we work with both”.

Brussels however think its time for him to decide...

"Britain must decide between a deal with Europe to cut border checks on goods or a free-trade agreement with the US, Brussels sources have warned"..

USA free trade side looking patchy ....

One of the papers running a story on if Trump is a bout to have his Liz Truss moment...

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/05/20/donald-trump-is-heading-for-his-own-liz-truss-moment/

KCE

Respect..

"Starmer and his band of merry men/women have thrown the whole UK under a bus"..

Starmer look like he made the choice between jumping into the trade bed with UVL rather than Trump... In the long run maybe the best overall. USA seemingly on an economic suicide mission...

At some stage Europe will need to strike energy deals with Putin and Trump he won't like that... Plus Europe looking like setting up its own army again moving away from over reliance on what has become an unreliable ally... Plus Europe need to keep on side with Chinese trade..

Bloom

Respect.

Who know with this one..

Moodys just downgraded USA from 'AAA' to 'Aa1', They say that successive US administrations had failed to reverse ballooning deficits and interest costs.

We all know this...

Scott Bessent he say no worry about USA defaulting on its debt as they will always raise the ceiling... What planet he on?

No wonder Mr Trump been tracking down the worlds wealthiest men include MBS. Respect MBS..

$7tn to get away this year.. Maybe the trade ways not such a good idea...

Trump he caused a lot of damage and we will find out in due course how much this is...

In the Uk looking increasingly like we reaching the top of the first roller coaster ride peak..

Quick one this..

Labour must be very happy to see so many red flags flying over the Uk.. Just like Mr Kim Jong Un birthday celebrations..

Trouble is these flags nothing to celebrate. They are a very real warning these ones from every sector in the Uk...

So how Mr Rachel reeves meeting with the pension funds go..?

So this one the Lloyds pension arm Scottish widows..

"The lender’s pension arm Scottish Widows has refused to sign up to a pact that will see Britain’s largest retirement funds invest £50bn in infrastructure, property and private equity by the end of the decade – half of which will be in the UK"..

Lets hope she has more success with other pension fund managers. But its not clear to me how this one will help the Uk economy. What is needed is tax cuts and direct investment imo....

Morning Bros..

So Mr Trump big play with the tariff backfired and its damage limitation from here on. Trouble is you cannot just switch on and off the supply chain.. We find out soon what the real damage has been. In the meantime USA need to refinance the $7T in U.S. Treasury securities set to mature in 2025. Big question...Who buy this? He starting to realize at last its the bond market that rules the world.. West runs a debt based system. How come he not know this?

Back in Uk things not so rosy either with the Construction business insolvencies have surging to an all-time high..

STP

Respect..

For sure that is all happening in the Uk... If you want to see what the Uk will look like in the few years .. Look no further than Sweden...

Morning bros.

interesting data on the exodus of HNW individuals.

ASI

They say this ..

"The UK is set to lose the greatest proportion of millionaires in the world within this parliament;

The share of the population who are millionaires will fall by 20% by 2028. 4.55% of British residents are millionaires in 2024, however, it is forecast that this will fall to 3.62% by 2028..

https://www.adamsmith.org/millionaire-tracker2024

This not a good thing.

In other data is even worse..

"In 2024, the UK experienced a significant net outflow of millionaires, losing 10,800 individuals, a 157% increase from the previous year.

As things stand. I am told this that a HNWI is leaving the Uk every 35-40 minutes. There is also a lot moire talking about this.