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Morning Bros.

Bad blood in the India and Pakistan. Where this one going? If it go badly wrong... I hope Mr Starmer he put factor 1 million sun screen in the trade deal. It could be in big demand....

Not long now under the Basel 111 that gold become a tier1 asset... give it this one... same status as the cash..

Govt still playing us over so many issues...

So we has today ..

Thursday 8 May May MPC Summary and minutes and May Monetary Policy Report..

be a cut imo ... say 25bps?

Morning Bros.

So look like we seeing the first waves from the tariff bomb Mr Trump he dropped into the ocean..

Trade wars never a good thing but the USA it likes its wars.

Having set the fields burning on Europes doorstep it has moved onto the Middle East and no doubt has the Far East on its to do list..

An empire lashing out as it enters its own self inflicted economic trap... Nothing clever about Trumps policies just shooting from the hip .

Back in the Uk we has our own clown troupe running the circus...Grangemouth the latest victim shut after 100 years and gone with it the last refinery in Scotland.. Who would be thinking this possible back in the day?

ok. try again..

just to note this one..

"hmrc is set to raise £110 million annually by cutting iht relief on aim shares, it has emerged. at present, qualifying aim shares attract 100% relief from iht, but this will be halved to 50% relief in april 2026"...

tell you this govt doing jack **** to help the markets..

Di

So we has Mrs Reeves to meet Scott Bessent today. So how she play this..

Tell you this for sure not off to a good start now she say..... "Rachel Reeves said Britain’s trading relationship with the EU is more important than its alignment with the US".

Apart from goods US is a key financial, energy and military ally. Even if they not sure which way to point the howitzers.. !!!

Morning bros..

Spain be fine when the chemtrails sorted..

So what the play with U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent .. Very important man. He say the international financial system need a rebalance... So what he mean... Does he mean this a reset or something else?... Lots of ambiguity surrounding US monetary policy.. Bretton Woods 2 on the cards ?... Waiting for the big player to show their gold hands..

US certainly in a muddle.

Now we has our friend Mr Starmer. What he really know about Ukraine?. Imo best he keep his nose out. If he worry about security maybe he need look no further than the Channel... Plenty in the Uk that should concern him

Ant

Respect..

You say this.

"Chips, I’m hearing gold going to $1800"...

Maybe have a look at futures .. June 25 ....

https://uk.investing.com/commodities/gold

As for Uk economy. Govt Debt continue to soar.. We see last year "borrowing " figures.. This despite fiscal drag and tax rises. The wealthy herd are looking for greener pastures...

Mr Gate

Respect..

For sure the bond market controls the world despite what Mr Trump he thinking. If we had a backward rowing race he surely a strong contender.

MR Bloomer

Respect

"Guns what is ARIA I'm only familiar with them in operas"....

In this one ARIA it stand for

Advanced Research and Invention Agency - GOV.UK

https://www.aria.org.uk/

Been around about 3- 4 yrs..

"ARIA will focus on projects with potential to produce transformative technological change, or a paradigm shift in an area of science".

Keep an eye..

Bloom

Respect but its who they represent that counts.

ARIA has some interesting idea re the climate.

Morning Bros.

So there Mr Trump go again. Now he say no intention of sacking Mr Powell ( not that he can do this). Hence why markets a bit more positive. Mrs Lugarde and IMF chair also standing with Powell.

Reporting Santander looking to separate off its car finance arm in wake of the commission payments matter...May even exit the Uk altogether... Where this leave Lloyds. Prob very positive.

Gold still riding high a Sov now circa £600... So bring me back to when mr Trump going to monetise asset side of balance sheet? What he mean. Revalue gold held.. This will move a huge chunk of the ownership away from the FED to the Treasury... Something drastic need doing. Interest on USA debt circa $1.3tn a year and lack of interest in its treasury bonds meaning coupon is high. More important matter this than simply the cutting rates. Rate cut will come on the back of the falling oil prices.

Maybe Mr Scott Brennan has some ideas re treasuries. I think he do..

Mr Chid

Respect

" but use your eyes, your ears, and your OWN brain"..

Is wise words indeed. My dad garden last year no wasp. First time that happen. he has a lot of apples.

Land being changed from agriculture to housing, the nations demographic all happen in plain sight. Good or bad is for you to decide that one...

As for expert. I has one word. Mr Neil Ferguson.

Chid

Respect

Interesting points..

I wonder given the size of the Uk not able to change.. May even be getting smaller with erosion.. What our politicians and their wise heads think that the optimal size population for this Island should be? 70, 80 90 million?

From what i see is like they have no upper figure....

1901 Census

"The total population of the England and Wales, Scotland, and Ireland (including what is now the Republic of Ireland) was 41,458,721 of which 21,356,313 were female and 20,102,406 were male"...

Lok

You are a wise man that is for sure..

Real danger is the spread of conflicts as the bigger players try to secure energy supplies.. We have seen this many times under one guise or another..

But if Africa and India ( now the most populous nation) I say this very broadly "Westernise " you know cars gadgets better housing etc on anything like the scale of China then as the saying go .. Houston we have a problem.

Not sure if still happening but at one item India restricting a while back was rice exports due to internal consumption demands. Nations relying on imported foods may be in for a bit of a shock somewhere down the line..To complicate the picture....

Cavendish banana (Panama Disease fungus ) ..Olives (Olive quick decline syndrome (OQDS) and certain citrus crops ( greening disease. Now reach Floirida )already suffering for weather anomalies and diseases.. No doubt lots of others similar.Plus of course foot and mouth a problem in the Europe.

Question this one for the wiser heads on this BB.

Being said reduce cash ISA to make people invest more. Govt trying to push insurance giants to invest more in Uk firms..

But how this really help the company? Ok MCap will go up but that not mean it more profitable..

Surely this is better. Govt reduce red tape and taxes on businesses... Certainly in the USA this helped the big bank grow...

The old Low tax = growth routine.... is that not what we need to be doing?

As is everything seem to be going other way and getting people to invest in markets comes with many risks..

Lok

Respect..

Saving the planet. Is a big one to discuss.

Lets start with population growth and the way we live..

Nov last year population of world it pass 8 billion. by 2050 will be 10bn est. In 2000,was 6.1bn

Is a lot of extra to feed on a dwindling crop land mass.

Not only this but the way we live is changing. In 1900 world use 12.131twh of the energy from two primary sources.

By 2020 jumped to 122.868twh

in 2023 183.230 tw/h

This remember despite world wars pandemics etc etc...

Then we has

Earth Overshoot Day (EOD) is the calculated illustrative calendar date on which humanity's resource consumption for the year exceeds Earth’s capacity to regenerate those resources that year.

1970 30th December

2020 29th July

2024 August 1st

Troajan

Respect

"The US stockmarket is down around 15% since trump started his tariff millarky

the bond markets up about the same, probably more"..

For sure the numbers they not lie. plus the other barometer gold doing very nicely. Some gold stocks also doing well but the water there a bit muddied by the third choice gold EFTs..

Blair Brown one good thing was the ISA...

MR Skier

Respect . Time will tell.

The FED reserve bank of Boston as one example and there are lots.. They say this....

" an additional 25 percent tariff on goods from Canada and Mexico combined with an additional 10 percent tariff on goods from China could add as much as 0.8 percentage point to core (excluding food and energy) inflation. By contrast, the policy that was proposed during the presidential campaign, an additional 60 percent tariff on imports from China and an additional 10 percent tariff on imports from the rest of the world, could have contributed as much as an additional 2.2 percentage points to core inflation"...

No wonder Mr Powell not keen to budge they are worrying numbers...

Morning Bros.

Cannot believe my eyes with this one. Story in papers Trump looking to replace him..

It certainly not work like that and in many ways like Mr Bailey ( Starmer ) Powell more powerful than (Trump ).

Be fireworks if FED not allowed to remain impartial...

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-will-study-whether-fire-fed-chair-powell-adviser-says-2025-04-18/

Does the whole thing what is happen with market volatility etc look like market manipulation?

"European Central Bank (ECB) cut interest rates for the seventh time since last year amid worries that Donald Trump’s tariffs could hit economic growth.

Policymakers cut the deposit rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 2.25pc "...

"Good Friday & Easter Monday

UK and European markets will be closed from Friday 18th April until Tuesday 22nd April for Good Friday and Easter Monday. US Markets are only closed on Friday 18th April".