The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
You jump from one shit storm to another! This is now the most shorted share in the FTSE and considering the speed these shorts have built up, you can guarantee there will be a crash!
Absolutely insane to think i sold at 24.54p and there was still a huge amount of optimism regarding this company at that time, even once the price had halved.
Most of your posts were ramping the hell out of this share!!
If anyone had listened to this board, they would be under the impression this deal would be declined and Moni would skyrocket (15p in tax losses everyone!!!) In actual fact, the vote passed easily with no fuss with only 76 shareholders voting against! Great example to be wary of stuff you read here if it is at odds with what is actually happening.
If there was a 99% chance of the bid being accepted, or a greater bid being tabled,there would be a lot more people and institutions jumping in for the easy 3-4%. They would even jump in for an easy 1-2% considering the short time frame. The fact they aren't shows that if the bid isn't accepted, the price will probably go down. 2.9p to 3.1p to 4.4p - sure. Moni could make money, sure, but they will need serious investment. 15P of tax losses is irrelevant without investment and growth.It seems absurd that people are using this aspect to claim 3.1p is undervalued and that this would be a bargain at 5p.
Shares are trading around 3-5% below bid price - this means people are confident of the deal going through but shows there is still a perceived risk. If the deal was a certainty, shares would trade much closer to the bid price. If people though the bid was undervaluing the company, they would trade higher (see whole foods after the initial offer for most recent example) 15p of tax losses... "Use of the tax losses would require the generation of future taxable income profits in the UK from the same business currently carried on by Monitise" You can't just buy another companies tax losses - if you could a company would never go into liquidation and noone would pay corporation tax!
Bought during the 2014 ramp and was lucky enough to make a good profit before bailing. There was so much hype around Fitbug (mainly on this board) and so many people were certain this company would be rivaling Fitbit and was going to be huge so i decided to leave some of my profit in the company to see what happened... When the price started falling people blamed the MM's, shorters, derampers, etc etc and were certain the company would prevail and people were averaging down. Perfect example of why you should never listen to anyone on a forum and to watch out for pump and dump momentum based rises.
You seem a bit confused. 60% drop in profits = still profitable, they still made over 100mill profit. They just made less money than last year. The share price has dropped a lot in the last year or so, correlating with the drop in profitability of the company The market actually thought the profits would be lower so the £100mil profit today is good news "losing half of its revenue"? What do you even mean by this? The company is trading at a PE of around 8.5 - this is by no means overinflated and is historically on par (slightly below) with what you would expect for an established company which is not in growth mode.
Why? The market clearly expected an even bigger drop in profits so "only" 60% is good news. Effectively, the announcement today is good news to those people who expected worse.
Worth noting the boards I "trolled" Quindell - vindicated Moni - vindicated Fitbug - vindicated Daniel Stewart - vindicated Worthington - Vindicated I wasn't trolling, but there were so many rampers/delusional investors, that there was a real risk people would buy into these stocks on terrible advice
At least I don't consistently get trapped in worthless AIM stocks with a false belief they are worth more than Apple while chasing my losses to the bottom
Almost immediately after Amazon offered $42 a share, the price rose above this amount as people expect a rival bidder and revised offer. Moni on the other hand trades slightly below the current offer price, indicating the market firmly believes that the current offer is the best result likely and there will be no price improvement.
should note that is an EBITDA profit, they actually still posted an actual loss
If it was worth 7p, the share price wouldn't have been below 3p for most of the last two years Driven down? Revenue is falling, the company barely made a profit in the left FY H1 (following hefty losses), and the cash balance is drying up. Besides, do you know how much cost/risk would be involved in purposefully driving down a share with legitimate value to it, for over two years? You would be better off paying twice the price. FinKit is definitely worth something, hence the offer, but Monitise is not in a strong position and without a takeover, probably wouldn't be able to reach it's potential. Patents may be worth something, but I can't see them owning any huge breakthrough patents. If they were in a good bargaining position, they wouldn't have recommended the offer.
Purp seems to have lost the momentum which was driving the force. More and more people are becoming sceptical about the scalability and profitability of the model putting the long term potential at risk. In addition to this the bank of England's vote today has had a bit of a shock impact on the house building and related sectors. As it stands the share price is overvalued on every technical aspect available but people like the potential of it being another Just East/Uber type of company, but poor reviews and a risky grab in the US could easily derail the company putting a damper on future earnings.
Moni's EBITDA for FY 16 was a 20million loss. Their 2016 H2 EBITDA was .6mil, and their EBITDA for the latest half year was .3mil. Revenue has decreased during this time, as has cash balance. Even taking ignoring the 20mil loss as a legacy issue, the figures do not add up to a company in growth mode and 2.9p seems more than fair considering the cash on hand.
Blind optimism and undying loyalty is not always the answer - especially in the stock market!
A company/share price's worth is just like any other asset, physical or otherwise. It is worth whatever someone else is willing to pay for it. In this case, 2.9p.
I'm not arguing that, desoc is the one who said it, I just responded to the hypothetical.
K3, look at the share history of Moni since September 2015. Although there are some instances of Moni being above 3p (and some below 2p) the price has generally hovered around and below the current 2.9p offer. Looking at the past two years of share movement, I think you would be hard pushed to argue the current offer is not fair, and it certainly isn't a mugging.