Member Info for GRH...

Sure....

Just passing time ...
as I am in A&E

Regards
GRH

Morning

I am leaving this BB

And would like to explain why:

I have tried to post informative stuff whenever I can

And I like to think that I have done exactly that ...
right from the point when I invested

It has not been the work of a moment

But I have to recognise that there are several crew members on here who are hell bent on damaging the SP for their own ends

And, in the process, they have issued personal slurs against me and my Wife of a most unpleasant nature
Frankly, they are water off a duck’s back

but it means that useful information is quickly pushed off the page...

of course, that is their intent

BUT what has staggered me is that the dwarves are aided
by previously sensible posters who are intent on allowing oxygen to such crew

Quite extraordinary

I have also seen one poster seemingly use the BB for his own manipulative ends
By posting one thing and doing exactly the opposite

And then he turns on me for trying to post supporting evidence for my views on various subjects

I found the SP/BB manipulation quite shocking

and it is clear that my own standards and research have no further place on here

As some might gather, I hold massive amounts of information that I have not posted
and clearly I will not now do so ...on here

I hold a lot of shares

and I intend to AT LEAST maintain my holdings

Regards
GRH

Crikey!!

Did dwarfs fail to read the information on the 101 that GRH published???

Regards
GRH

Old saying ...

'Don't bother looking for a multi bagger

If you're not going to allow it to multi bag'

Regards
GRH

Yes

you spotted it!!

I am running the Sevenoaks branch of 'Understatements R Us!!'

'if it were guaranteed ...the equity value would already be above that of CHAR'

Regards
GRH

Morning

I will be brief-ish

I have a reasonable grasp of what Paul and Lonny are dealing with at Guerci

I really don't think that many people on here possess that grasp...apologies to those easily offended

The EXCEPTIONS stand out
VERY clearly ...as giants

We know who they are

A quick observation re the staggeringly informative interview yesterday..

I have listened to it several times ...
some might wish to do the same
I will do so several times again

But just take this ONE point!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Paul deals ...head on ...with the issues of likelihood of commercial gas flow
and risking

Its the first time I have heard him do that on a public channel

Please plug the smallest flow numbers into your abacuses=

Shareholders make a lot of money

Now...plug in the range of numbers he expects =

Shareholders make a LOT of money

Of course it cannot be guaranteed at this stage ...

if it were guaranteed ...the equity value would already be above that of CHAR

So...the gap between current ‘market’ pricing of the equity and value of the equity (copyright S81)

is like nothing else I have ever seen...

NOR WILL EVER SEE AGAIN

And I have been involved in some mighty decent sized things

Yes you can lose money...
and only you know how much risk you perceive and can handle

But none here today will ever see one like this
and they have even less chance of holding enough to make SERIOUS money out of such

I don't trade this share as I really DON'T NEED TO

Such stance seems hard for small time traders and CREW PERSONNEL to understand

I researched...more than a bit

I waited until THE optimal moment...one single event drove that moment

I bought ...in volume ...at 1.5p

I now sit patiently

Guercif is such that no amount of whinging by the dwarfs can or will change anything

CAVEATS :

All IMO
DYOR
It's your money
Tomorrow might be Sunday
ETC

Regards
GRH

Forgive me...
I meant to say that I own the freehold jointly with two other owners
ATB

I own the freehold of Wildernesse Avenue...including the wonderful double double row of common lime trees...
known as the Waterloo Limes...
planted to commemorate Wellington's victory in 1815 ...when he came to visit that year

Anyway... on Tuesday ...we have tree surgeons taking out the top 33% of trees over 200 ft tall

I can probably find some suitable timber

ATB
G

Matt

In future...
you will be known by your nickname

' Understatements R Us'

ATB
G

Sorry formatting was a **** up...but you get the gist

Please consider these bald numbers...

Netback in 18 March RNS and in MC...$7.21 per MCF

Price per MCF to derive that netback...$10 per MCF

But

Price per MCF quoted by Paul today...$16 per MCF

FX cable rate in RNSs and in MC...$1.39/£

Current rate...fast moving but call it $1.1/£...

Soon to become parity I understand

why mention these things?

In combination

Simple...

Has anyone got a ' calculator' that can do a bit of multiplication ?

Warning...various crew members will start shouting again

MC was indeed 'wrong

Regards

GRH

As I have said several times...

Michael Caine was based on various RNSs...

Including the hugely informative RNS of 18 March 2021

MC was a 'translation' of that RNS into more readable form

Since then, we have seen increases in the number of shares in issue

And ...very recently... it has become clear that the 50% field equity figure used in MC is now the full 75% ...for the foreseeable future

IE nett of initial ONHYM carry of 25%

IE an increase of fully 50% in the PRD net position!!!

(50 % to 75% = uplift of 50%)

There have been further helpful explanations by PRD
And of course recent CPR figures

but I am going to keep this simple...
For now

Please consider these bald numbers...

Netback in 18 March RNS and in MC...$7.21 per MCF

Price per MCF to derive that netback...$10 per MCF

But..

Price per MCF quoted by Paul today...$16 per MCF

FX cable rate in RNSs and in MC...$1.39/£

Current rate...fast moving but call it $1.1/£...

Soon to become parity I understand



And I have said several times... its WRONG



Hmmmm



Going from memory...the nettback in 18 March RNS was at $7.21



I recall



Regards

https://audioboom.com/posts/8163008-the-sunday-roast-featuring-paul-griffiths-executive-chairman-of-predator-oil-gas-lse-prd

From 15 mins onwards:

NOW folk know why I am here
In volume

The following relates only to the imminent drilling:

You heard the $560m NPV

You also heard that is AFTER ...yes AFTER...
applying a 75% ‘risk discount’

YES...the discount is not 25% discount
Its 75% discount

Folk can do their own maths...

BUT...here’s the thing:

the CPR ‘risk discount’ is for COMMERCIAL risking
re gas to power projects

BUT we are going to the industrial market via CNG...

which market is keen to get gas ASAP for obvious reasons

We are 'only' going for $16 per mcf

But here’s THE THING again

‘Michael Caine’ was a tad lower!!!!!!

Hmmm
to say the market has not done the maths
is a bit of an understatement

An old boy used to talk on here about the shares (equity) only being priced at CALL OPTION money

Frankly, this is another instrument ON call option pricing

IE ...its a Call Option on a Call Option

Regards
GRH

Morning

Politicians campaign in poetry

But govern in prose

That chap Eamon Ryan is about to find out what the population of Ireland thinks of that

As the mercury drops

It will not be pretty

Regards
GRH

Dissipline

nailed it

It's his bat and his ball...
and his bloody pitch too

Frankly and much as it pains me to say it...

The Old Lady is merely a bystander

Its why sub parity looks 'on'

Whilst the markets give it about evens odds...

my FX mate reckons the markets are stupid ...simply full of
'juveniles untested in battle trying to plot their way through algorithms mostly written for different circumstances'

As do I ...re equity pricing on PRD

Funny old World

Would be interesting to hear the opinions of others
who are notably 'shouty' during the week

Regards
GRH

Fordy

Are you saying that Arnie himself was booked to headline the event
But pulled out due to dispute over his fees???

If that is so...it would be a bloody disgrace!!

Never ever let down ...
Neither folk nor animals

I would volunteer to headline it myself
But fear the effect on your son would not be good!

Regards
GRH

Hi Keith

My apologies ...
As I had failed to acknowledge your previously posted views

I agree re ftse ...
the income improvements ...of many constituents ...are not yet being fully acknowledged by market pricing

ATB
G

Typo...
Obviously ...I would not bet against him

Morning

Fordy...
That quote was originally from Warren Buffett...
retweeted by your truly

Many folk on here know that I am invested in PRD in volume ...

for 'Morocco' ( not 'only' Guercif)

But, in my book, our opportunities in Ireland have just taken an enormous leap forward

I do not think that Mr Ryan' s position can remain tenable for much longer

BTW...I had first mentioned the FX rate for cable
because of

A)
The changes I had seen over the previous year ('worldwidepleb' gets it)

B)
The changes that were then about to come...have come

C)
The changes that are STILL to come

What???

Anyone who thinks that the cable rates used in the various PRD presentations are correct...
is simply way out of touch

Yes ...it's unpopular and will irritate those easily irritated...

but I was MD at the world's second biggest inter dealer broker ( including FX / swaps )

Sterling is only going one way for the foreseeable future...

An old mate of mine who worked with me then
and who still runs his own family office FX brokerage from his home...
reckons sub parity is nailed on...

I would not get against him

It would be interesting to hear the views of some others on here

Regards
GRH

https://twitter.com/GrahamHengland/status/1573355253247901698?s=20&t=D3Fh0_fdJRhnpGiCj-rpCg

Just saying!

Regards
GRH

My own personal view...

The following might be incorrect ...In whole or in part only

The debt is the debt...it's well established

But the LIABILITY
is of a different order of magnitude

I also have doubts about their solvency...

I would be surprised if the new finance bloke left without good reason

Directors and shadows always try to stay well away from 'trading whilst insolvent'

I make no allegations

I have views as to how this whole matter might be resolved...
But it's best if I keep them to myself

At least...Pro Tem

Regards
GRH