Member Info for GreyPanther

Hi RNST. I'm no longer a shareholder here, so there's probably not a lot of point in my posting on this BB. However, I still look in from time to time, and at UJO's board, if only to confirm how toxic these two LSE sites have become. To answer your query on WN testing costs, i reckon you're in the right ball park. Anywhere between £40k and £50k per day. The higher number include rathin's overheads

Egdon is up by 33% today and Europa up by 16%. So why is that, I wonder? I can't believe it's just because a concrete plinth has been installed at the Wressle site, whatever it's for. I hope they're putting up a statue to honour Egdon's CEO!

We are up by a massive 33% today, and Europa's up by 16%. On the strength of what, I wonder? I can't believe it's just because of a concrete plinth that's been installed at the Wressle site, whatever it's for. Perhaps they're putting up a statue to honour Egdon's CEO, or maybe it's going to host "The Angel of North Lincs", whoever that is!

Hi Tovoc. Thanks. I worked in offshore Irish exploration many moons ago. The area around Corrib looked particularly good to me even then, and that was long before Corrib came into production. So that area, for one, gets a big thumbs up from me. Of course, it will only be of value once the Irish Govt pulls its finger out. How short sighted can it / they be? Or maybe their dilemma is caused by Eire having a minority / coalition govt. in charge of their energy policy. But we're not that much better off here in the UK with the jokers that are now in charge of our so-called energy-policy. And the other lot weren't any better either!

About 20 trades so far today, and it seems they are mostly in the right direction with the SP up by over 8%. I wonder if there's anything going on, maybe at Wressle, or perhaps on the corporate front? Egdon are also quite strong, but not Union Jack, it would seem.
Hi Tovoc, I think we might be able to get a better idea about what Wressle is currently doing as, according to UJO's LSE board, an RNS about their third $1 million of income may be coming fairly soon. With oil averaging about $85 since their last (11 Jan) RNS on tUJO's income, we should be able to make a stab at the daily average since then. Well, maybe!

Four trades so far today but it seems they are all in the right direction with the SP up by 4%. Is there anything going on, maybe at Wressle or on the corporate front?

It's nice to know that someone thinks it's worth investing £17.4k of their cash in EOG. Maybe it was one of the directors!

Hi VernetLes. I too rate SO as a CEO because I knew him in a previous career. However, you may have missed it elsewhere, but it wasn't only him that commented on the ERCE report on 19th January. Two other RNS wereissued, with CEO comments, by Egdon and UJO on the same day. All the best, GP

Hi Serif. I'm fairly sure that Wressle has been producing in the order of 800 bopd from time to time, and we certainly had the 7 days at 666 bopd, as announced two months ago. But I suspect that the latter was announced because it was an unusually high rate over a lengthy period before the site improvements. One can only guess what the average rate has been since then of course but the lack of a third $1million revenue comment from UJO is what makes me slightly more cautious than some other shareholders. Still, with Brent over $90, the revenue soon adds up.

I find it slightly hard to believe that Wressle is averaging four tankers EVERY day with 200 to 220 bbl in each tanker. This would mean a daily average between 800 and 880 bopd, which seems a bit on the high side to me. But, if it's the case, I would have expected an RNS from Union Jack by now to report their third $1 million gross sales at the current high oil price , although an RNS could be imminent, I suppose. I reckon Wressle is probably averaging about three oil tankers per day, with an occasional four leaving the site. So it might be somewhere between 650 and 700 bopd, IMO, but who can tell unless someone is counting the tankers every day.

Hi Tovoc. Do we really know how much oil is currently being produced at Wressle?. I'd be willing to bet it isn't anywhere near your (and my) hoped for 1,200 bopd, great though this would be. In my experience it can take quite a long time to get an oil and gas production plant running smoothly after field start-up. There will be lots of down time (maybe 10%, to up to 20% of the time) when there will be no production while they get the plant in balance with a view t maximising stable oil production. At the current approx. $95 Brent oil price I'd be reasonably happy if the field has been averaging (say) 600 bopd every day since the post-proppant squeeze last August. More would be very nice, of course, but let's not be too greedy! One thing we don't need is for water to break through prematurely because the reservoir pressure was allowed to fall too quickly..

Hi Biggleswerf. Your arithmetic may well be correct if you are talking about Europa's gross revenue. However I think you may be ignoring two quite significant factors. For example (1) the price discount to Brent we receive. It 's probably in the range of $2 to $5 per barrel, depending on the quality and frequency of the oil that's being delivered in fairly small tanker loads to a local refinery. And (2) the operating expenditure (opex), as well as any ongoing site works. For Wressle we've been told by Egdon that ithe opex is about $9 per barrel. It's this low because Wressle produces dry oil, so there are no water disposal costa. But it's a different story at Crosby Warren, and presumably at our other producing fields, where the opex will be much higher. This is because water disposal from an oil well is very expensive as it's a contaminated by-product.

IMO the sub-parallel open fractures seen in the core photograph are pressure relief / un-loading fractures, and have little to do with any fractures that might be present underground. You'll no doubt be happy to hear that I have decided to "put my money where my mouth is" and have asked my broker to sell my shareholding, hopefully at a small profit. So it's over and out from me.. And by the way, S&S's ability to be a little selective in what they say - I won't say occasionally misleading - is borne out by what they said about the so called Cadeby reef being cored. As we should all now know, there was never reef at WN. Byee!

I have seen the images and have already said what I think about the "open fracture". Why haven't we been told anything yet about the core permeability values or the actual / measured flow rates? IMO their omission is a bit odd.

The first month average daily production figures are much more likely to decrease with time. It's called depletion. And IMO the jury hasn't yet decided about "the natural fracturing that has already been identified". You can believe in t if you wish, of course. That's the choice we all have to make as investors.

Selfish. I didn't miss it, thanks. I just don't think there are many open fractures in what's been drilled and tested so far. That's in spite of the core photograph previously posted on our website which was said to show a small open fracture. Think about the statement "natural fracturing is likely to be present within FUTURE completion zones, which MAY further enhance well productivity". Doesn't that suggest that not much fracturing has been seen in the wells drilled so far? If there were open fractures we should have had reportable flow rates. Some permeability values would be helpful too, since the core was analysed rather a long time ago. So I suspect that S&S may have been somewhat selective in what they have reported so far. My current thinking, sadly, is that the fractures previously shown are only developed at or near the well bore, so they might have been induced by the drilling process. Or perhaps there were open fractures in the past, but they have become salt-filled, or have otherwise become "tight" by being cemented up with recrystallised calcite, dolomite or whatever. When a lab cleans a piece of core before measuring its porosity and permeability it's very easy to wash out any salt cement that might be present. So what you you see in the core when it's at the surface isn't always what's present downhole. It shouldn't happen, but it does occasionally.

Hi Selfish. I too missed the 17 January brr media interview, so thank you for posting the link. Now I've listened to it, and re-read the same day's RNS about the RPS modelling studies, I find it quite hard to interpret what S&S actually said in their interview. Perhaps it depends on whether one is a "glass half full" or a "glass half empty". kind of investor. I certainly feel a bit more optimistic about the Kirkham Abbey reservoir potential at WN but, having worked on the UK Zechstein in a previous life, I'm still not yet fully convinced. These are important modelling studies carried out by a competent consultancy company. However, what we should bear in mind is that the actual flow rates we might get from a horizontal or a vertical well will lie somewhere between RPS's rates, which are probably their maximum expectations, and zero. Let's hope it's closer to the former once they've done their best with the completions etc because the very low flow rates to date (but still apparently unreported in any detail) aren't a source of great confidence for me. Others will no doubt be much more optimistic, but that's my opinion

Hi SelfishMcNimby. I'm sure you've heard the story of the fool who tried to please everybody. I'm therefore not too worried if I have disappointed you, but I would probably have something more useful to say on the geological front if our CEOs (and Rathlin too, if I'm frank) tried harder to keep us up to date.

Hi arche2. Thanks for providing the Parta update. I agree it's nothing to get excited about, but it's rather more than RBD can be bothered to tell us. Our two CEOs continue to disappoint, IMO.
Snaffleman, I wish I had a more useful answer. I suspect that WN B-2 (the horizontal well) won't be drilled until much later this year or maybe even early 2022, assuming the consents of all (or some of) East Riding Council, the EA and the OGA will be required.

Once we've sold Corallian or Victory, if RBD can pull that one off at a satisfactory price, my big concern is that we'll then be viewed as a a "no remaining tricks" pony! That's unless Rathlin can get their finger out and decide in which direction and how best to drill the WN B-2 horizontal well. I say this because things seem to have gone worryingly quiet at Parta and in California. Has anyone seen or heard encouraging from those project s lately? If not, IMO everything will be dependant on WN