Member Info for GreyPanther

Thanks Mirasol and notrac. GP

As archie2 says, not too much of the WN expenditure will be for RBD's or UJO's account, but I reckon it must really be hurting at Rathlin since they've had to find 66.67% of the B-2Z and A-2 extended well testing costs. I estimate, based on our various WN RNSs, the two EWTs lasted about 130 days in total. So at perhaps £40k to £50k all-in testing costs per day, I estimate the gross cost will have been - very roughly - £5.2 to £6.5 million. That's about £3.47 to £4.33 million net for Rathlin and £0.87 to £1.08 million net for RBD and UJO, which is presumably bearable. Well, let's hope so!

I've not read about any UJO board resignations today. So could someone please post a link to Winnifrith's presumably wildly inaccurate article, as I'd quite like to read it for myself. If it's a subscription only tip sheet, I've no desire to give TW any of my cash. Maybe someone could cut and paste the text. Well that's if any part of it is worth reading!

Hi persimmon. Thanks for posting that. This is a bit of a geological rant, so please feel free to skip it if it's just too boring. To my way of thinking, those words in the application doc finally knock the Cadeby on the head as a potential target. In fact, they've not found any kind of Zechstein reef so far because there aren't any to find in this area of Yorkshire. There is, however, very good evidence that Zechstein reefs are present much further north, as in County Durham. Rathlin's expression concerning "near-reef indicators" in their application is, IMO, an indication of just how keen (?desperate) they were to extend their Western Canadian reef model into Yorkshire, but it looks like a bust at this particular level. The jury is still out on the Kirkham Abbey's potential to produce, and I certainly don't regard that horizon as a dead duck. Only time will tell if it has any real value.

The gas "discovery" announced today by Chariot wasn't really a discovery. IMO it's more like a highly successful appraisal well drilled on a gas accumulation they already knew about when they acquired the acreage. Even so, it's still good news for us since it may help to get our own Moroccan interests on the map for anyone still looking for a farm-in opportunity in that part of the world.

Egdon do seem to be very slow at getting things done but I don't think it's entirely their fault. They have at least four regulatory bodies to deal with: North Lincs Council, the OGA, the EA and the HSE, and I suspect that each of these has its own different priorities. This must make trying to comply with all of them a bit like "herding cats". I've some sympathy with them having been involved in the onshore oil and gas sector myself.

IMO VeryHappyBunny's posts are worth reading, which is lot more than can be said for some of the drivel on this board. Including mine, most likely,! And that's just to save royobrat and the trouble of saying so.

Hi NigelHaemoglobin. I agree that Wressle has cost Egdon and its partners far too much for all sorts of reasons, wand you won't need me to bore you on that score. However, I'm not sure that a nodding donkey type development would have been helpful here, or not right now, anyway. The well is free-flowing, and without any formation water,so producing it with a nodding donkey would only limit what's currently being produced. But it would increase the operating cost because a donkey would need electricity to make it work since it's a pump.

Does anyone know if / when we'll see Gaffney Cline's Wressle CPR? It's possible that we may not see it at all, I suppose, as it was apparently commissioned by Union Jack for their own reasons. But if it's any good they will presumably want to publish at least the highlights in an RNS. And now the holiday season is over, perhaps we'll get an update on what been going on at the well site regarding the installation of the "secondary separator system".

Before I get too carried away with all this speculation, it's probably worth saying that the better than expected Ashover Grit flow rate could have other causes. It could be due to:
1. An even better / thicker Ashover Grit development some way away from the point at which the Wressle -1 well penetrated the reservoir, or
2. Perhaps there is a vey effective water drive, or
3. Maybe a gas cap is assisting the oil recovery.
This last idea is possibly supported by the very gassy uppermost (Pen'stone) reservoir which has a GOR of 141,667. It seems that the three reservoirs get more gassy as you move upwards from Ashover to Wingfield to Pen'stone, but the oil gets slightly heavier, moving from 39/40 API to 33/35 API. You pays your money and takes your choice, as they say.

Hi Serif. The Wingfield Flags are at 1,937 to 1,940 metres drilled depth, so they are only about 3 metres (10 ft) thick according to what I've seen published - which isn't very much. The base of the WF is about 66 metres above the top of the 9.5 metres / 31 ft thick Ashover Grit (2,006.1 to 2,015.6 metres). The WF oil has a 2,460 GOR, so it's quite gassy compared with the Ashover Grit oil. I don't therefore think the "additional" oil is coming from there. Two possible candidates, IMO, are the Brigg Sandstone and / or the Chatsworth Grit. Together they are 48 metres thick (1,955 to 2,003 metres) and are found immediately above the Ashover Grit. They apparently have some untested oil shows in them, so they could perhaos have been accidently affected by the proppant squeeze.

Hi Serif. In an idle moment I’ve been thinking about the Wressle GOR (gas to oil ratio) and I think it may be telling us something interesting. The 2015 DST of the Ashover Grit apparently produced only 72 barrels of oil plus 47,000 cu. ft of gas per day (79.8 boepd in total on a 128/64” or a 2”choke) giving a GOR of 653 cu. ft / bbl . However, the 2021 GOR seems to be significantly lower, possibly since the proppant squeeze. This could of course be down to a measuring error back in 2015. The 884 bopd rate announced on 21 September showed that the GOR was only about 543 cu. ft / bbl and on 16 December the 666 bopd rate had a GOR of about 553 cu. ft / bbl. The two 2021 GORs are very similar to each other but between 2015 and last year the GOR seems to have decreased by about 16% during a long period with no production until 2021. I therefore wonder if the better than expected recent flow rates may be a result of Egdon's accidentally accessing an additional (but fairly thin) oil-bearing reservoir just above and / or below the Ashover Grit with a lower GOR. Thin oil sands are visible on one of the released well logs but it seems they were never tested. This could be important for Wressle as it mightresult in a larger Ashover Grit oil volume than was estimated in the original CPR. Is this a possibility. I wonder?

Thanks very much for that Exploration, you've explained the Zechstein productivity issue very clearly. I can't argue either with what you say about Reabold's management needing "to start with a clean sheet, import expertise from proven gas fields and appoint credible technical / operational management to back up their next fund raise and explain the use of funds at WN". One of my biggest concerns is that the relationship between Reabold and Rathlin is far too close. RBD own over 59% of Rathlin, as well as a 16.665% working interest in the WN licence. I know it's only hindsight, but it was a foolishly large over-exposure to a single asset. How will Reabold rid themselves of Rathlin as operator if the latter have been incompetent, especially with Rathlin / Connaught still owning a 66.67% interest in the licence. They will find it difficult to get Rathlin out of it unless an amicable solution can be reached. I'm worried that all this will take considerable time.

Thanks for that itsawrap. IMO it's quite telling that Lincs County Council took more than a month to put in writing their reasons for rejecting Egdon's application to drill a Biscathorpe sidetrack appraisal well. I realise that it would have been within the Lincs Wolds AONB (area of outstanding natural beauty) but LCC were obviously OK with the original exploration well in the AONB. Presumably they expected that it would be a failure. So maybe they feel that they are on rather shaky legal ground. In any event, I expect that Egdon and its partners will be taking some serious legal and technical advice on which to base their appeal, so they won't be in a big rush to submit it.

Share Prophets is apparently written by Tom Winnifrith, so I'm hoping he knows where he can stick his delusional observations about David Bramhill and UJO. Perhaps, like many of us, he's showing a loss on his shares, or has already taken one, and is having another of his frequent "hissy fits". Many of us are in the same position but aren't whining. So let's hope for a much better 2022 SP when Wressle gets to flow at a sustainable commercial rate following- and I hope it's soon - the OGA's formal approval of the Wressle development plan.

Hi there Snaffleman and hythe1, Thanks for your thoughts and encouragement. I may hang in here a little longer than 0.20p if the SP looks like it's about to go in the right direction. My big issue with Reabold, if I'm brutally honest, is our two CEOs' stewardship of the company, or their seeming lack of it. I don't mind their not being technically minded as that's not their area of expertise. But, if they are being given good technical advice from anyone source other than Rathlin at WN, and I'm not much of a big fan there, they don't seem to be listening to it or acting on it.

Does anyone really know what caused yesterday's nearly 40% rise in our SP? I'm a bit happier today as it gets me back to a level at which I’m only nursing a small-ish paper loss, but at least it’s just about bearable. My investment In Reabold was entirely my own, maybe foolish, decision of course. But it all looked pretty good to me originally, particularly as our two CEOs had invested significantly some time earlier at 0.80p. I have to say, though, that I’ve completely lost confidence in S and S. I suppose a Corallian / Victory sale or a farmed-out Victory development could still happen for us but IMO it will probably take a long time, and I'd probably take a small wager that they’ve not had much more than a quick sniff from any potential buyers so far. I really hope I’m wrong, notwithstanding the recent significant gas price rise, which is today looking a bit more like a short-lived blip to me. And what of RBD’s West Newton, Californian and Romanian investments? Speaking as a former oil geologist, I’m afraid they all look severely damaged to me, but I won’t say hopeless. In any event, it will probably be “over and out” for me in the New Year if we get back to about 0.20p. Not that I’ll be missed, I’m sure.

Hi Serif. Many thanks for this info. It seems to have been a decent sized buy, and at a better price than lately, so maybe the next trading sessions will be more exciting. Well, one can only dream! Happy New Year.

Hi Serif. I see our SP is 8% better today but I don't have access to the purchase info you refer to. Can you tell us anything more about yesterday's late report of large buy? Thanks.

Heid / All, thanks for the link to GeoExpro's May '21 article (Vol. 18, No. 2). it's a good read for anyone with an interest in Zechstein geophysics but, IMO, the Mid North Sea High geological setting is quite a bit different from the basin margin setting seen at West Newton. Unfortunately they didn't have a lot to say about WN, but why would they as they weren't working on that area. In any event, it's still appreciated, thank you. The Geological Society has published quite a few decent articles on Zechstein gas fields in Yorkshire over the years but I can't seem to find a link to them. I post them if I eventually find them.