Member Info for GreyPanther

Hi Seav. Thanks for your encouraging thoughts about Serenity. As a former geologist, I'm particularly interested in the reservoir's thickness and its distribution along the Tain / Serenity structural trend. Your comment "if connected to the Tain field, as i3 anticipates, represents a mapped oil column of approx. 622 ft (190 m) TVT in the Captain sand alone". IMO the reservoir at Serenity could easily be as thick as that but, if it is, it might affect the quality of the reservoir seal across the major fault which separates Serenity from the Halibut Horst. The HH mainly consists of the 'Old Red Sandstone' which could allow leakage cross the boundary fault, and the loss of much of the oil, if a sand to sand contact is present across it. Only drilling will tel us, of course, if this has occurred. So I reckon we are "in the lap of the gods", whatever that really means!

Hi Verbier Dave. I assume / hope that some of those hoped for Egdon RNSs might be announced before the half year results on 26th April. Maybe they will all be coming out at once, but it would be really good to have a proper news FLOW, wouldn't it? And maybe a further announcement might be included: that the Wressle development plan has been submitted and / or given formal approval, and the Wressle gas issues have been resolved or, I hope, soon will be. ATB.

I invested in Elephant Oil Ltd a few years ago, and it has now morphed into Elephant Oil Corp. The original EOL shares cost me about 22p / share,and I received one EOC share for every three EOL shares previously owned, so they cost me about 66p / share. I've read elsewhere that they are hoping to list in the USA at about $4.50 per share, say 343.5p / share at current exchange rates. So, if UJO had the same deal as me, there's a good chance the return will be 343.5p / 66p, or about a x 5.2 increase, which isn't bad at all.

Hi itsawrap. I'm interested in West Newton too, so maybe I was slightly harsh. But what was the purpose of persimmon's comment, other than to spread a bit of gloom? IMO it wasn't helpful or particularly informative.

Bog off! This is the UJO board

Hi Tovoc. I believe the new / replacement flare stack was installed because the old one couldn't cope with the unexpected amount of gas which came with the higher oil rate. I'd be quite surprised if the EA were in a hurry to increase the flaring limit with the gas price being what it is. Like us, I'm sure they'd rather it found a commercial use.

I'm very happy to see that Egdon have installed an appropriately sized flare stack at Wressle. However, I think some of us may be missing the point regarding oil production. The Environment Agency has a 10 metric tonne daily limit on gas production during the EWT, and this limits the amount of oil that can be produced along with it. Based on the gas / oil ratio we can estimate the maximum daily oil rate that's allowed. This is currently about 800 bopd by my reckoning, and I suspect that at the current production rate Egdon are probably approaching the 10 tonne flaring limit on most days. I say roll on the gas pipeline, or whatever system it takes to use the gas more profitably.

I'm very happy to see that Egdon have now installed an appropriately sized flare stack at Wressle. However, I think some of us may be missing the point regarding oil production. The Environment Agency has a 10 metric tonne daily limit on gas production during the EWT, and this limits the amount of oil that can be produced along with it. Based on the gas / oil ratio we can estimate the maximum daily oil rate that's allowed. This is currently about 800 bopd by my reckoning, and I suspect that at the current production rate Egdon are probably approaching the 10 tonne flaring limit on most days. I say roll on the gas pipeline, or whatever system it takes to use the gas more profitably.

Hi there RNST. Call you a pedant? Surely not! Mind you, my regular income is shown on my monthly statement before the deduction of income tax, and before meeting my domestic and living costs. But if it makes you feel better I can always call it gross revenue. Whatever. Maybe I should stick to geology!

IMO it's unlikely that more than one well will be drilled at WN in the next year. Assuming it'll cost about £5 million (more than usual, as it might be a horizontal well), UJO's 16.665% share of the well cost probably won't be more than about £0.833 million. Of course, there are the OGA's licence fees and Rathlin's charges to add to that. So I reckon WN will cost UJO about £1.0 million in 2022. I can't see us having a huge problem with that, considering our current Wressle income of about $1 million per month based on the recent RNS.

Hi VernetLes & isdeer. There are numerous wells along the Wressle-Broughton-Crosby Warren structural trend and a few nearby wells which have found oil shows over the years. So there's probably plenty of hydrocarbons, both oil and gas, still to be found on our licences. The technical info from most of these wells has been released and is available via UKOGL, the UK Onshore Geophysical Library at https://ukogl.org.uk. BP’s apparently unsuccessful 1984 well at Broughton had oil shows at several levels but maybe it wasn’t drilled at the best possible location. The Broughton well site was only about 1.4 km west of Wressle, although the bottom hole locations may not be so close if either well was deviated, which I think Wressle was. Accessing the Pen'stone and other reservoirs at Broughton from the Wressle site probably wouldn’t require an impossibly long reach well. It’s technically possible, but probably not an ideal situation operationally if Wressle production has to be suspended while another well is drilled. IMO significantly greater reserves will be found in the Wressle - Broughton area than arec urrently thought to exist. Perhaps, then, it might make better sense to apply to the Council to renew the Broughton well site and drill a Pen'stone / Ashover well that's closer to vertical there. That’s assuming North Lincs Council will be more accommodating this time, of course.

According to Egdon's accounts to July '21, they owe UJO £1 million plus interest, and it's due for repayment in late May '22. I'm sure they (EDR) will move heaven and earth to repay the loan but, if they can't, UJO can take 25% of Egdon's 30% Wressle interest as compensation for the default. This would be an extremely undesirable outcome for the operator but great for UJO as it would leave EDR with only 5%, but UJO would go from 40% to a 65% interest . But I wouldn't hold my breath. And now that Europa is cashed up, presumably they won't want to sell any of their 30% interest. I certainly wouldn't!

Current Wressle oil production is governed by the EA's 10 tonne per day limit on the amount of gas that can be flared. By making a stab at the Gas / Oil ratio and the likely gas density I came up with a number in the 800 to 850 bopd range, which is about 4 x 200 barrel tanker loads per day.. The oil rate should improve a lot once there's a system in place to utilise the gas commercially. All IMO of course.

Europa's (and Egdon's) half year results to 31 Jan '22 usually come out in mid April. Maybe the RRR will be helpful there too.

Regarding the Wressle CPR / RRR: I think UJO have offered an acceptable reason for delay as there is, most likely, a lot of additional new information to digest and further data will be coming in all the time during the EWT. But the report does seem to have taken a long time to emerge, that's for sure. In any event, I’m hoping / expecting that it will be all the better for the wait.

Hi Mirasol. Regarding UJO's new Reserves and Resources Report, I suppose they will share it with their Wressle partners before it’s finally published. IMO it probably doesn't matter much when this is done as the conclusions are likely to be published by UJO before too long. But let's hope it's sooner rather than later. In my book UJO have offered an acceptable reason for delay as there’s probably quite a lot of extra information to digest, and further data is probably coming in all the time during the EWT. But the report does seem to have taken a very long time to emerge. I’m hoping that it will be all the better for the wait.

Hi VernetLes. Regarding UJO's Reserves and Resources Report, I suppose they will share it with their with their Wressle partners before it’s finally published. IMO it probably doesn't matter much when this is done as the conclusions are likely to be published by UJO before too long. But let's hope it's sooner rather than later. In my book UJO have offered an acceptable reason for delay as there’s probably quite a lot of extra information to digest, and further data may be coming in all the time during the EWT. But the CPR / RRR does seem to have taken a very long time to emerge. I’m hoping that it will be all the better for the wait.

Thanks gogetter. I hadn't forgotten about Egdon's offshore Ceres gas nor Keddington, but Ceres is believed to be in decline and IMO would be very near the end of its life if it hadn't been for the sharply better gas price over the last year. Keddington isn't currently producing very much oil, and has a fairly high operating cost, unlike Wressle. And to answer your Q. about who will have best income numbers this year, it probably won't be easy to compare them directly because UJO has a December year end and Egdon's year end is in July. But I'd be willing to have a small bet on UJO, where I'm also a holder. This is because Egdon have so many shale gas licences which are not currently doing them a lot of good, but which still gobble up Egdon overheads,

The reported fourth $US million earned by Union Jack wasn’t unexpected, but it’s obviously excellent news for us too. I assume we must have earned $3 million (dollars) over the same period from Wressle alone. Our original RNS about the successful proppant squeeze was issued on 24 August. It therefore seems, depending on the actual earning dates, to have taken us about 216 days to earn $3 million, or 72 days per S1 million. And it gets better more recently. UJO earned their third million $ in 42 days, and their fourth $ million took only 34 days. So that’s currently about $0.75 million of Wressle earnings per month for us, thanks to the higher oil price and improving daily flow rate. I’ve read that Wressle's oil rate is currently about 800 bopd, which isn’t too bad at all since the gas issues aren't yet fully resolved. So, while UJO have been able (and maybe Egdon too) to pay off their Calmar debt early, leaving them with £6.6 million in the bank, IMO it would be interesting to know exactly how much fcash we have too. Minimil's £2-3 million sounds OK, but as anything been published by EOG or, if not, has anyone done the sums?

The report from Union Jack today of a fourth $US million earned at Wressle since the proppant squeeze wasn’t exactly unexpected, but it’s excellent news for us too since we must have earned $3 million over the same period. The original RNS about the proppant squeeze success was issued on 24 August. So it seems, depending on the actual earning dates, to have taken Egdon 216 days to earn $3 million, which is about 72 days per S1 million. And it gets better more recently. UJO earned their third million $ in 42 days, and their fourth $ million took only 34 days. So that’s currently about $0.75 million of Wressle earnings per month for us, thanks to the higher oil price and improving daily flow rate. I’ve seen elsewhere that the oil rate is currently about 800 bopd, which isn’t too bad at all.. So it’s a big thumbs up that UJO (and maybe Egdon) have paid off their Calmar debts and UJO still has £6.6 million in the bank. It would be nice to know how much free cash we have too. I wonder if there’s any chance of an RNS soon, but don’t hold your breath!

On the gas front, I don't think the equipment is in place yet, as Egdon are apparently still working on the best way to monetise the gas.