Member Info for GreyPanther

Ineos seems to have plenty of cash sloshing around if they're now considering buying a Premier League footie team. However, rather more interesting IMO is a now rather ancient entry on the BBC News website dated 11 April '22 at: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/
business 61060721#:~:text=Energy%20firm%20Ineos,around%20shale%20gas.
I’ve only recently found it and it says: “Energy firm Ineos says it wants to build a fracking test site to show the process can be performed safely. The company claimed extracting shale gas in the UK could make the country "self-sufficient in 10 years". The firm has written to the government asking to develop a site, with its boss Sir Jim Ratcliffe saying such a move would reduce the cost of energy and ensure long-term energy independence. The offer comes after the government ordered a new report into fracking. Last week, it announced the UK's new energy strategy. However, the strategy document made no mention of fracking, a method of extracting gas and oil from shale rock. Jim Ratcliffe, the founder and chairman of Ineos, said that with the UK in the midst of an energy crisis, it was a ridiculous situation with so much gas under our feet. He also said extracting shale gas would allow the UK to benefit from its own resources, massively reduce the cost of energy and ensure our long-term energy independence. He then said "We are today offering to drill a shale test site to show that a competent operator can be trusted to develop the technology safely” and also said while it was invested in what it called the growing renewables revolution, the technology was not yet reliable enough to take over. The company said the UK would need gas for three decades as it moves completely away from burning fossil fuels. "Fracking has been safely used in the oil and gas industry for over 50 years. In the US, over one million wells have been safely used and have transformed the energy security of the country." Ineos's call for a fracking test site comes after the boss of British Gas owner Centrica said the process could boost UK energy supplies and reduce bills.
So -and at last - I’m now wondering if INEOS might be considering developing one of Egdon’s sites because they and Egdon share licences PEDL 139 & 140 which contain the successful Springs Road shale gas well drilled in 2019. The licence operator is IGas with 32%, INEOS have the largest (40%) interest, Egdon has 14.5% and ECorp owns 13.5%. Could this licence of Egdon's perhaps see some exciting activity? Well, probably only if our new prime minister gives the go ahead to trial fracking operations once s/he is in power.

Hi there smad. You could well be right. Only four years ago, not long before HMG put the boot into shale gas exploration, ,Egdon's SP briefly got as high as 10p in mid 2018,. With a favourable wind for fracking from a new PM, I reckon we could easily see those days again. Egdon's SP would only have double (again) from its current ca. 5p to be there again. Hold on to your hats ..... I hope!

Heid. You said earlier that "Not one of you asked to see my informative reply from Mark Abbott that I received yesterday" I confess to being somewhat interested but the problem for many others on this board could be that we know a little about Mark Abbott (the CEO of Egdon)and he is quite a shrewd guy. So he is most unlikely i my opinion to divulge anything to a caller - be she / he a shareholder or otherwise- that is not in the public domain (such as already been reported in an RNS). Some of us would probably be very interested in what you have to say if you can you tell us something that is genuine news, especially if it came from Mark Abbott, and which isn't merely another of your usual posts

According to their recently published accounts, Rathlin's cash balance was about £5.35 million at the end of 2021. I’m guessing here, but they will perhaps spend £0.5 to £0.75 million up to the end of Q3 2022. So let’s say they'll have about £4.6 to £4.85 million in the kitt then, unless they’re able to find a further source of cash in the meantime. I sincerely hope it won’t be us but, with a fully tested West Newton horizontal well likely to cost £8 to £10 million, Rathlin’s 66.67% share could easily be £6.0 million. We can presumably afford our direct 16.67% exposure to the well (about £1.5 million) especially if Victory comes good. But please bear in mind that we also own just over 56% of Rathlin and I don't, in all honesty, want any more of WN. Nor do I want us to have to bail out Rathlin. So I’m left wondering how Rathlin (and we, maybe) will cope with the forthcoming drilling programme financially.

Hi itsawrap. I can't really see why David Bramhill would want to do any of the three things you've mentioned (buying another 1/6 of the WN licence from Rathlin, lending cash to Rathlin or RBD or participating in a possible placing) by one of them. I would have thought - and I'm with RNST here - that our current exposure to West Newton is quite enough for a company of our size. With a fully tested horizontal well likely to cost perhaps £8 million to £10 million, I reckon we can afford our current one sixth exposure, but I wouldn't want any more, not even with our excellent Wressle income.

I see the Mulberry handbag and matching shoes (or whatever) is back. It's been so peaceful recently. Please give us another week's break. Thank you.

Hi Brotherseven777. Sorry to disagree with you but ..... "UJO's potential involvement in Shell Cambo fields"? The chance of that happening is close to zero, IMO, and for all sorts of reasons.

Hi Tonno. I agree. I reckon the main reason fir the lack of hysteria on this board yesterday - and, I hope today too - is that our commentary about what might happen to Egdon's SP (and why) was posted over the weekend when we started to see what was happening to the IGas and Egdon SPs late last week. All the best to us, I say.

Hi Brotherseven777. Thanks for interpreting Gwynwin's post as I couldn't make head or tail of it. I can't see UJO going into the UK offshore in the way that Europa and Egdon have done since most projects available there are far too expensive and challenging. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to see Europa / i3's Serenity well going over budge if they run into the smallest technical problem, but I hope I'm wrong.

Hi Captain Kirk. If 1 Therm is the approx. equivalent of 100 cubic feet of gas then, as you've posted below, Inishkea's 1.5 TCF of gas divided by 100 represents 15 billion Therms. At the current UK gas price of say £4 per Therm I suppose Inishkea's gas could be "worth" £60 billion. However, that's far greater than any realistic NPV figure (Net Present Value) and is only an amusing calculation to play with!

Hi Rodez. Thanks for reporting that; I sincerely hope it's true. Not that the Mail is always a reliable source of information, of course. However, I'm left wondering if I've understood you and / or the Mail correctly, and that Truss specifically mentioned IGas and Egdon, or merely mentioned the group of companies still holding shale gas licences? All the best, GP

In UJO's defence, the publication dates for their interim / H1 and annual results have been pretty consistent over the years, as far as I can recall. So when do you think we'll finally get to see the Wressle reserves report? I'm still hoping to see it by early September so it can be included and / or discussed in the H1 results. But even if that’s not the case, there’s still a lot of other potentially positive news stacking up from UJO and its partners over the next month or two.

Hi HDT. I'm also invested in UJO and Europa, and have a slightly larger stake in UJO than I have here. This is partly because of UJO's 40% interest in Wressle compared with Egdon's and Europa's 30%, plus the potential upside in UJO's 16.67% interest in West Newton. I reckon Egdon is most conservatively run of the three companies, and they appear to have quite a lot of shale gas licences which could come good, but IMO only in the fullness of time. For me, one of the biggest issues with Egdon has been their controlling shareholder who doesn't seem to act like most institutional holders, but is maybe a "friend of the Egdon management", at least as far as I can see. However, the Egdon SP has started to motor this last week, just like IGas has over a longer time frame, so who knows where the Egdon price might end up if fracking gets the nod from the next PM.

I'm sorry HDT but it's difficult to answer all your queries without writing pages, and it's much too hot for that today. Can I suggest that you do a bit of research yourself by taking a look at Egdon's latest annual report (I know (it's only to 31 July '21) and look at their list of licences. If you eliminate those where they have already done conventional oil or gas drilling before now, the remainder will mostly be shale gas / potential fracking sites. As far as I know, Egdon or thier larger partners have no fracking equipment on any of them, so IMO any operational progress will be many months (more like years) in the future.

HI there HDT. I'm hanging on to my Egdon shares (for now, anyway) because I think there's a lot more mileage in the SP with the on-going fracking debate. Also, at today's 5.0p, the 2.5p warrant holders who participated in the June / July '21 placing at 1.25p will have seen the value of their warrants jump sharply too. Although they have until mid 2023 to exercise their warrants, I wouldn't be surprised to see some holders converting their warrants well before then, and this would put further cash in Egdon's pockets which I'dexpect them to use sensibly.

I don't know what what IGAS has done this week, other than enjoying a decent rise in their SP, which is great for their shareholders. However, all the Wressle partners are up today, but Egdon and IGas do seem to be moving in tandem. Because of thar, I'm inclined to think that' it's most likely to be shale gas / fracking changes related.

My recollection is that very few of EOG's current onshore licences are suitable for fracking. However, there was a mention some tome ago - on this board or ADVFN's - that just one of our UK licences might be suitable. The 19% SP rise at Egdon today is certainly pause for thought, but I'm not holding my breath.

I've no idea ewhy our SP is up by nearly 18% today. However, our next PM will be either Truss or Sunak, and both are reported as being pro-fracking. So I'm wondering whether the winner might try to re-introduce fracking in the UK in an attempt to reduce gas prices. But even if this were to happen, it obviously won't have an over-night effect on the price of gas, of course.

Hi DaveT1. I'm sorry to disagree with you but that's not how capital reductions work. No new cash will suddenly arrive in UJO's bank account just because the CR is approved. Any cash that might be required for a dividend and / or a share buy back will have to come from UJO's cash pile at the time, . All the best, GP

I was happy to see that UJO’s proposed capital reduction is still on track with a preliminary High Court hearing on 12 August and the final hearing scheduled for 30 August. I’m now wondering about the likelihood of the hearings being successful. From the 25 July RNS we know that on 24 July UJO had “cash and short term receivables” of £9.15 million. I therefore think it’s pretty unlikely that UJO is in anyone’s debt in a big way. I suppose there might be a few outstanding invoices for licence costs incurred by Egdon / Rathlin over recent months but IMO these are unlikely to be for very big amounts since there are no current drilling operations, just the continuing Wressle development costs. The oil price has come back a bit lately but our cash pile must be continuing to increase as the weeks go by. Assuming the hearings go our way, we still don’t know whether it will be a dividend or a share buy-back or (remotely possible I guess ) both if we’re lucky. Let’s hope I’m not being over-optimistic here.