Member Info for GreyPanther

Hi Gwynwin. I believe Tues 30th Sept is the day for the High Court decision. Assuming it's a "yes" I'd hope that we will hear the outcome the same day

With gas currently at 600p / therm for October,, it's worth bearing in mind that if we were selling gas next month at that price - and I know we won't be - it would be worth about 4.25 times the current $100 value of our oil from Wressle. Since a therm is the equivalent of about 100 cu. ft of gas and a barrel of oil is the equivalent of about 6,000 cu. ft, one boe of gas is worth 600p x 60 or £360 / $425. So I'd expect that Egdon and its partners will be doing their utmost to get the Wressle gas or electricity sales going asap. But which will it be, I wonder\/

Does anyone know why there was a relatively small jump (OK; it was about £40 million) in our market cap yesterday following that excellent RNS about the highly favourable Italian arbitration decision? It's about a +70% increase and at first sight it may seem quite a lot. However, the RNS said that an arbitration panel had unanimously awarded us Euros 190 million in compensation, plus interest at EURIBOR +4%, which I think is about 5% interest for more than 6.5 years and which might therefore come to about €250 million in total including the interest, or about £213 Million in Sterling terms. After the ca. 20% payment due to the arbitration funder(s), Rockhopper apparently expects to retain about 80% of the award, which would mean about £170 million for us So why has our market cap increased by only £40 million since the announcement. Maybe the market thinks Italy won't pay up, or perhasp we're in for a long sustained rise, and I certainly hope so. Any ideas please?

Hi Exploration. Thanks for that, yet again. The fact that ONE Dyas has already relinquished the block containing two apparently successful wells (42/4-1 and 1Z) reinforces the fact that finding and producing commercial hydrocarbons from the Zechstein is not straightforward, even when there have been significant flow rate on test, But then, I assume we already know that.

Hi tonynorstrom1. If the GOR is genuinely about 550 cu ft per barrel, or maybe a bit more by now (from the the Ashover only) then at 1,500 bopd the gas rate would be around 825,000 cu. ft per day. What we don't know is the density of the gas. However, I'd be willing to make a small bet that 825,000 cu. ft /day is more than the 10 tonnes /day allowable flaring limit. So there is alreay a potential limiting factor until a gas pipeline or perhaps an electricity generating facility is installed.

Hi Exploration. Another Zechstein question, if I may. Have you heard anything about the Ossian-Darach discovery? I heard it was another successful Zechstein well, with oil and / or gas discovered within a carbonate reservoir. Since then there seems to have been very little news. Was it ever tested, and what was the outcome? Thanks again GP

2,000 bopd gross at Wressle sounds really great, but I'd like to add a word of caution. Egdon will obviously know, but we don't know much about the reservoir pressure. So I'm a bit concerned that at (say) 2,000 bopd and no immediate way of using the gas, we would be getting close to the reservoir's bubble point. This is the well flowing pressure at which a lot more gas is liberated from the oil. We know that the gas / oil ratio is only moderate at Wressle, but it's maybe 550 cu ft per barrel or more in the Ashover reservoir/ I'd therefore be quite surprised if Egdon or its partners would want to risk massively increasing the gas flow rate, and maybe jeopardising an important producing reservoir. It's just a thought; I'm possibly being over-cautious here

2,000 bopd gross at Wressle sounds really great, but I'd like to add a word of caution. Egdon will obviously know, but we don't know much yet about the reservoir pressure. So I'm a bit concerned that at (say) 2,000 bopd we would be getting close to the bubble point. This is the well flowing pressure at which a lot more gas is liberated from the oil. We already know that the gas / oil ratio is only moderate at Wressle, but it's maybe 550 cu ft per barrel or more in the Ashover reservoir/ I would be surprised if Egdon or its partners would want to risk massively increasing the gas flow rate, and maybe jeopardising an important producing reservoir. It's just a thought; I'm possibly being over-cautious here

Exploration. Thank you; there's some very interesting info there. It will also be interesting to learn how Deltic / Shell's forthcoming Pensacola well on Blocks 41/5a, 41/10a & 42/1a works out. I see it's another Zechstein reef prospect, and not a million miles away from West Newton, but I've no idea which formation or Zechstein cycle the reef isits within. Do you know anything about it that you can share? Thanks, GP

Thank you Exploration. Your post reflects my view that "cartoon diagrams" are an over-simplification. The Zechstein elsewhere around around the Southern North Sea does contain reefs, as in the Durham - Hartlepool area, but never in Yorkshire.

Watts / Selfish. Just because I don't rate S&S doesn't mean there's not a trading opportunity here. I'm hoping the RPS CPR will look good when it comes out, and I'm sure they will all be doing their best - in that direction anyway.

The deeper objective was the Cadeby Formation, there is no "Cadeby Reef Formation" as such . They may have spudded the A2 well in the hope of also finding a Cadeby reef, but there was never one to find.

Selfish, I post on a few other AIM companies with the odd technical comment, but it's only Reabold's management that I'm so critical about, so I'm sorry if you think I'm an "eco-warrior". However, I do know something of our CEOs' reputation as I had only to ask some city contacts. I can't help being unimpressed by their performance, or by what's not happening at Parta, in California, nor much going on at WN. However, In their defence, I will say that WN is still in its early days, and has not been as protracted as Sea Lion. And it shouldn't be either because it's an onshore UK project, not one situated in a hostile marine environment in the Southern Atlantic. The WN-1 discovery well was drilled by Rathlin in 2013, but the successful appraisal well in which RBD Participated (WN-A2) was only drilled in 2019, and there have two other, somewhat inconclusive wells since then. So only 3 years have elapsed since we farmed in. But what really rankles (and I'm speaking as a former oil geologist here) is the silly fib we were told by RBD's management about the "Cadeby Reef" at WN. No such reef ever has ever been shown to exist anywhere on our licence, which I suppose may be why we haven't heard much about it lately. In their 17 June ’19 RNS about the A2 well, RBD's management said: "The well also encountered hydrocarbon shows within the secondary target Cadeby formation with an oil saturated core”. This was a load of tosh. The Cadeby wasn't cored in this well; it had been cored in the A1 well, but it didn't find a reef.. I know this is the case as the A1 well has been released.OK, I know this is ancient history now, but I feel it's symptomatic, especially when one looks at something where one has experience. It also strikes me as significant, or at least a bit odd, that neither UJO nor, I think, Rathlin have echoed what RBD said in the Cadeby Reef connection. Generally the two public comanies' RNSs have had much the same content with respect to WN.

If anyone seriously believes that Reabold's CEOs are "respected in the city as being the best deal-makers in the business" one has to wonder who is clueless. Their selection of and persistence with the California and Parta projects speaks for itself, and IMO the jury is still out on Corallian and West Newton.

Hi again EFlammis. I'm at considerable risk of teaching you how to "suck eggs" here but:
http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/prices-and-markets/stocks/prices-search/stock-prices-search.html
is great for constructing your own share price histories. Just go to their "Custom " setting and chose the period you're interested in, which is how I was able to check Egdon's SP back in 2014. All the best, GP

Hi gogetter. I've never been to an Egdon AGM.I once went to a presentation of their annual results at their broker's London office and I think the invitation might have come because I once worked for one of their joint venture partners and had been invited to participate in a share placing. This was many, many moons ago, and I still rate Mark Abbott highly. IMO he's very conservative, not that this is a bad thing. Egdon is no longer in debt and this takes some doing. I reckon we might see a small profit for the year ended 31 July '22. However, I could easily be wrong. The main issue, as I see it, is that everything to do with the onshore UK, takes for ever to happen, and that's regardless of who the operator is. It's sometimes quicker offshore but, as we can see from their Resolution venture, one needs very deep pockets once proprietary (rather than third party) 3D seismic is needed, let alone near shore drilling, regardless of the water depth. Even so, I'm looking forward to seeing the annual results.

Hi EFlammis. I can recall owning Egdon shares back in early 2014 when the SP was about 27p. In my defence, let me say that I've not held my shares ever since then - but those were the days.

I think there are 4 x 400 barrel oil tanks and a water tank of similar size on the well site. The tankers have been reported as being able to transport about 200 barrels of oil each, so I suppose there could conceivably be 8 tankers / 1,600 bopd being loaded each day. However, I understand there are currently between 3 and 4 loaded oil tankers (so 600 to 800 bopd) leaving the site each day, but I'm not sure how reliable this info is.

Hello Heid. Thank you for the Wressle storage clarification from MA. I do hope we'll get some further news fairly soon on the agreed gas disposal method(s), and perhaps a realistic estimate of the improved Ashover flow rate when it's installed and operational. We might also hope that it will be loud]y trumpeted / RNS'd by all three partners when it happens, if only to put the doubters to flight.

Isn't it strange that when you ask Heid a specific question about one of her posts she goes very quiet? I sincerely hope she's not too busy to reply.