Member Info for greendave66

It’s all about the slots. Who ever buys the airline gets the slots which are worth tens of millions on their own without everything else.....synergy from international flights is worth tens of millions more, properly monitize 8million passengers per year....tens of millions more. All this adds up to £60m in my book so I’ll take that Mr B

Here with all the routes, slots and 8 million passengers a year. In profit for a quarter this year, it won’t take much to make this a profitable airline with the poo having reduced to the current level.

If they buy us Virgin cannot buy a domestic airline as big us as we are the biggest. If Virgin wants to bounce back with a domestic airline and be the best as they always do. It’s us or nothing. Virgin will want in and AIG will want to block them.

Enterprise Value (EV) What is the 'Enterprise Value (EV)' The Enterprise Value, or EV for short, is a measure of a company's total value, often used as a more comprehensive alternative to equity market capitalization. Enterprise value is calculated as the market capitalization plus debt, minority interest and preferred shares, minus total cash and cash equivalents. Read more: Enterprise Value (EV) | Investopedia https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/enterprisevalue.asp#ixzz5XzZwHDzF Flybe’s pre-tax profit fell 54 per cent to £7.4m in the first six months to the end of September, compared with the prior year. Revenue fell 2.4 per cent to £409.2m and net debt grew nearly 40 per cent to £82.1m. The company now has an enterprise value of £107m. https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/9d5ab702-e7db-11e8-8a85-04b8afea6ea3

IAG paid £172.5m for BMI back in 2011/12, at that time BMI had losses of £130m for just 9 months of the year. £130m!!!!! They did have 56 slots at LHR although BA had to give up 14 of them.

It remains heavily focused on the UK regional market, although it describes itself as the largest independent airline in Europe. The airline carries eight million passengers a year between 81 airports. You only need to make a few pounds per customer profit and you have got a cracking business. Easy jet make over £2 per customer. Plus we have a £1.6 m a subsidy and new routes starting March.

Who cares still over 30% up and the second bidder to confirm interest and is virgin making an offer and if so for how much. This is there golden chance to enter back into the domestic market. Miss this and you might not get another chance for many years....

Trades today don’t think I have been anything as popular for years

So yes still 25p under valued. What price do the bidders want to pay that’s the million dollar question

Leaky leaky some big time MMs involved here as was once a few hundred million mcap. Flybe has fallen from grace and reached the bottom last week and is on the way back up with me and others enjoying the ride (or flight) with them

Great start to the week....still a gap to 30p to fill....everyday we are getting closer

Says it all about investors confidence. First bid in money terms to come this week? Further restructuring to save cash or release cash? So many potentials and variables to happen to keep you glued to the screen.

if they bought us out. We are largest regional airline in Europe and combined with BA it would be a monster. A profitable monster.

just gone through. People still loading up at these levels. AIG yet to confirm they are bidding and the first offer from either Virgin, AIG or any other yet to come. Only put up for sale less than 2 weeks ago and loads happening already. Expect news this week...its all to play for

Mr Branson himself blamed the failure on the "meagre package of slots" with which Little Red had operated for his previous domestic airline failure

Is the name suggested in the Independent yesterday for Flybe if it’s taken over. Extracts: Flybe is using these “remedy slots” between Heathrow and Scotland, and has also procured some dormant rights for its new four-times-daily link from Newquay to Britain’s busiest airport.In time – three or four years – those slots will become more flexible, which means more valuable.

I calculate the portfolio as comprising 13 pairs of Heathrow slots a day, which is worth well north of £100m even with a third runway in prospect.

An alternative thesis is that Sir Richard sees a future for an airline that helps feed his long-haul aircraft and delivers value for Virgin Atlantic’s partners. We shall see in time which proves to be correct.
Meanwhile, Flybe is a going concern, and I shall continue going on Flybe.

......https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/virgin-atlantic-flybe-takeover-airlines-richard-branson-a8649831.html?amp&__twitter_impression=true

AND L2 looking healthy for a push north to over 40% up....who wants to buy flybe....hands up!!???

However from the SAS article "Last year Kenya Airways sold its one and only Heathrow slot to Oman Air for no less than US$75 million. Oman Air now uses the slot for its overnight Muscat-London service which arrives early the following morning – a peak time for long-haul arrivals at Heathrow which explains the hefty fee Oman Air was prepared to pay.
NOTE: "overnight Muscat-London service which arrives early the following morning" which would mean according to Oman website is the 0555 ARR and then the 0825 DEP.

The flights at the top are DEP. The arrival times of the Flybe slots include 0620, 0705 and 0855.

Average value is still going to be good if the 0555 is worth $75m / £58m.

For balance the turnaround times for long haul stuff is obvious going to be a lot different so not sure how that would work.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/transport/10075367/Flybe-sells-Gatwick-slots-to-easyJet-for-20m.html

25 slots were sold for £20m. So pro rata 6 slots is £4.8m. BUT that was Gatwick and that was 2013.

https://www.businesstraveller.com/business-travel/2017/03/30/sas-sells-heathrow-slots-75-million/

2 slots at $75m (£58m) also sold a single slot for $60m in 2015!!!!

https://www.routesonline.com/news/29/breaking-news/270502/flybe-gains-access-to-heathrow-with-scotland-remedy-slots/

Flybe will have 45 flights a week (25 EDI and 20 ABZ) The SAS article "states SAS has the sixth largest number of Heathrow slots. Its current tally of 19 slots will, after this particular pair of slots are transferred, therefore be reduced to 17 (slot) pairs." So my assumption is that the slots are daily slots? Flybe have 45 flights, so 6/7 a day?

Lets say each slot is worth £30m (they are daytime slots) 7 slots are therefore worth circa £180m???

Thoughts??

You just cant beat Virgin being involved as the media just love it.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/companies/flybe-shares-rocket-as-virgin-enters-fray/ar-BBQ0Hac?li=AA54rU&ocid=mailsignout If Branson wins, easyjet, ryan air, IAG lose out......no one likes to lose in business especially when you might be able to buy us out for 30p which is just £60milliion plus loose change for Branson to get back into the domestic airline business. He knows how to buy oil for Virgin Atlantic and better buying of oil could
push flybe into profit without the re-structuring. Good rise coming tomorrow with Brexit deal and another bidder waiting to make a move and that without a 3rd possible entrant.......jeez should be a great week.