Member Info for greendave66

Either way is irrelevant while we wait for the bid figure

He is busy losing money on MATD unless he has a short open. He made good money here without waiting for the bid. Up to him....

we have over £400m in revenue, 80 planes, lots of slots, routes, assets that generates a lot of paperwork and due diligence. Unless you know better of course?

averaging a few RNSs a day most days so expecting 1 or more this afternoon

I think your right. Pay the right money or get refused like Stobart. They refused that bid at a much higher price than today but Brexit and high POO has meant being put up for sale and which I would assume they are looking at a higher price than Stobart offered. Flybe can buy fuel for late 2019 into 2020 at a much lower price than previously and as we spent £55m on fuel last week that could be well over a £10m saving. Cut the fat from the other routes and monetize some assets. If we go down the restructure route then any bidders will have to pay more in the future. Now is the chance for Virgin and maybe BA (as yet to formally declare) to buy us for less than a £100m.

re-structure news this week. Its always good to get a few quick wins.

From Parliament briefing...... the most valuable slots in the UK are at Heathrow Airport and capacity constraints have driven up the price that airlines are prepared to pay for slots on the secondary market.25 The value varies considerably by time of day, with an early morning slot pair reported to be worth around £15 million, falling to £10 million at midday and £5 million in the evening.26 Oman Air set a record by paying US$75 million for a pair of take-off and landing slots at Heathrow
June 2017 prices http://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN00488/SN00488.pdf

Everyone waiting for the first bid. Virgin declared an interest and BA Owner rumoured to be making a bid and Stobart always mentioned but I dont think they will have the cash to be honest when compared to Brandson and BA. Im seeing what the first bid is before taking any potential profit. The 1st bid will set the clock ticking for others that are currently out to join the bidding race. Virgin might make a better joint working offer so long as it gets us into profit from 2019-2020 and increases profits every year where possible then thats whats counts. Wont be long now......there will be teams at the airlines working on this bid and deciding whether they can let a competitor win it if they dont

this has been pumped up like a hot air balloon in the past month. A bit like before when it came out that no deals are anywhere near being completed and it fell back down to earth with a bang. Be careful peeps if there is no deal its going back to 10p which is a big drop. If there is a huge deal then multi bag it will.....im waiting in the wings for the RNS myself....been watching this for a long time waiting for the deal to make it into a proper company rather than never, never land

If a bid comes in at above this price which all current holders expect then you will have no chance of getting in without paying a massive premium to todays price. Europes biggest regional airline that made a profit in part of this year for the current £40million - your having a laugh. Bolt this onto BA and Virgin will have no chance to compete in this regional market for a decade. The same if Virgins buy us out and re-enters the regional feeder market.

HSBC broker says £40m+, Independent says £100m - Is the answer somewhere in the middle?

More than Double current mcap

Flybe’s pre-tax profit fell 54 per cent to £7.4m in the first six months to the end of September, compared with the prior year. Revenue fell 2.4 per cent to £409.2m and net debt grew nearly 40 per cent to £82.1m. The company now has an enterprise value of £107m.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/9d5ab702-e7db-11e8-8a85-04b8afea6ea3

POST ONE:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/transport/10075367/Flybe-sells-Gatwick-slots-to-easyJet-for-20m.html

25 slots were sold for £20m. So pro rata 6 slots is £4.8m. BUT that was Gatwick and that was 2013.

https://www.businesstraveller.com/business-travel/2017/03/30/sas-sells-heathrow-slots-75-million/

2 slots at $75m (£58m) also sold a single slot for $60m in 2015!!!!

https://www.routesonline.com/news/29/breaking-news/270502/flybe-gains-access-to-heathrow-with-scotland-remedy-slots/

Flybe will have 45 flights a week (25 EDI and 20 ABZ) The SAS article "states SAS has the sixth largest number of Heathrow slots. Its current tally of 19 slots will, after this particular pair of slots are transferred, therefore be reduced to 17 (slot) pairs." So my assumption is that the slots are daily slots? Flybe have 45 flights, so 6/7 a day?

Lets say each slot is worth £30m (they are daytime slots) 7 slots are therefore worth circa £180m???

Looks like i was totally wrong!!!!

Thoughts??

POST TWO:
So. Different times different days but overall 0845, 0945,1120, 1450, 1805, 1820, 2020, 2045.

However from the SAS article "Last year Kenya Airways sold its one and only Heathrow slot to Oman Air for no less than US$75 million. Oman Air now uses the slot for its overnight Muscat-London service which arrives early the following morning – a peak time for long-haul arrivals at Heathrow which explains the hefty fee Oman Air was prepared to pay.
NOTE: "overnight Muscat-London service which arrives early the following morning" which would mean according to Oman website is the 0555 ARR and then the 0825 DEP.

The flights at the top are DEP. The arrival times of the Flybe slots include 0620, 0705 and 0855.

Average value is still going to be good if the 0555 is worth $75m / £58m.

For balance the turnaround times for long haul stuff is obvious going to be a lot different so not sure how that would work.

This could be 23p on its own......

So, "The airline has nine slot pairs at London Heathrow and in the summer uses them to offer a daily return service from Zagreb and weekly flights from Rijeka and Split. In the winter the slots are used solely from and to Zagreb."

-------So definitively, 9 slot pairs is literally 9 flights in and 9 flights out a week-------

Also, "As the timetable information, above, from OAG Schedules Analyser shows, Croatia Airlines is selling four 10am arrival and 10:50pm departure slots (Tuesday, Thursday, Saturday and Sunday) and one 11am arrival 11:50am departure slot (Wednesday)." --------These slots have the average value of $3.9m (£3m)-------

From my research the other day Flybe average around 6/7 flights a DAY - so lets call it 40 flights a WEEK (so 40 slot pairs).

Some of those were early morning which we know from the OmanAir sale are the most valuable. Some are midday so can be valued as above. Some are evening so lets assume they are the least valuable because of time restrictions etc.

I will estimate/guess that a fair average would be £3m (to fair???) so 40 slot pairs at £3m is £120m... not bad.

Additionally, I noted these croatia slots were sold to Delta for transatlantic flights..

I usually deal with the crap on AIM but we are in the big league with Flybe where basic business principles apply. AIM is full of pump and dump shares with no income just lots of broken promises and placings. Flybe has over £400m in revenue and 8 million passengers. Who would not want to bolt this onto an existing airline? I think Stobart would struggle due to lack of knowledge when compared to BA and Virgin. As the biggest regional European carrier this could be the first and last time in a decade that an opportunity arises like this to be bought out as a whole to gain market share and larger profits from feeder flights and making the rest of Flybe profitable in its own right. Game on as far as I’m concerned. Awaiting first bid patiently

Flybe codeshares with the following airlines under the 'One Stop To The World' programme : Aer Lingus Air France Air India Alitalia British Airways Cathay Pacific Emirates Etihad Airways Finnair Singapore Airlines United Airlines Virgin Atlantic

Flybe uses the Avios frequent-flyer programme, which is also used by British Airways, Iberia and Aer Lingus. The programme is operated by the IAG subsidiary Avios Group......looks like BA know lots about Flybe already. Puts them in pole position to decide on whether to make a bid or not as they how they would work together .....

Long haul potential or what? Flybe carries 8 million passengers a year between 81 airports across the UK and the rest of Europe, with over 210 routes across 15 countries. Their two hubs are Manchester & Birmingham airports but they also have a number of codeshares allowing connections to long haul flights from airports such as London Heathrow, Paris CDG, Dublin Airport and Amsterdam Airport Schiphol. They are a member of the European Regions Airline Association.[5] Flybe's parent company Flybe Group PLC (formerly known as Walker Aviation Limited) is listed on the London Stock Exchange.[6]

I usually deal with the crap on AIM but we are in the big league with Flybe where basic business principles apply. AIM is full of pump and dump shares with no income just lots of promises and placing. Flybe has over £400m in revenue and 8 million passengers. Who would not want to bolt this onto an existing airline? I think Stobart would struggle due to lack of knowledge when compared to BA and Virgin. As the biggest regional European carrier this could be the first and last time in a decade that an opportunity arises like this to be bought out as a whole to gain market share and larger profits from feeder flights and making the rest of Flybe profitable in its own right. Game on as far as I’m concerned. Awaiting first bid patiently

Wonder whether it will need an RNS or momentum on its own will take it up.

Ran an article last week saying the Enterprise Value was £107m for Flybe. You need to examine the all the RNS to see the value of what we have and it’s definitely not 23p worth....