Member Info for Gray1

And yet I posted detailed projections on Chrome, pgms and copper and the only comment you make is when you misread the header and said copper. Why don't you leave the snide comments at home and join in the debate actually add something you never know you might enjoy it and we might learn something.

Edzi yes I have been looking for the electrical component but it wasn't there. Maybe we won't be too far out we can revise as the quarters tick by next year.

Enjoy your holiday and your book although this board is better. Good spot on the paint job I would have to look back at the RNS to see if there was any mention of the scarlet pimpernel component.

I will assume Roan is ramped up by the end of June.

12k tons of copper for the year. I will assume a copper revenue per ton of $8k a bit lower than current price of around $9.5k but I will err on the side of caution as the first two quarters this year we are only averaging $6.7k but we are only producing a small amount.

cost per ton around $4 - $4.5k we are around that margin at the moment but economies of scale could reduce that (JLP claim they could hit $3.8k not a million miles away)

This gives a gross margin of between $3.5-$4k and a potential gross profit of between $42-$48 million.

Converting to sterling and the usual deductions probably comes in around £20-£30 mill nett profit. It is a wide margin as I don't know the exact amounts for deductions

eps of 0.67p-1p, pe of 8 uplift to sp of between 5p-8p.

There are a lot of assumptions in there on the downside the margin could be smaller and we may not produce 12k but on the upside more modules could come on line through IRH partnership (lower margin though) or we could produce more ourselves and copper could continue to rise.

So each quarter I will be looking for 3k of copper at a gross margin of $3.5-$4k.

With the Chrome and pgms I did earlier sp of between 13p-18.5p. It might be cautious to some but I would rather they beat these figures than be below them. Again my opinion only other opinions maybe just as viable. We could also get a better pe as JLP seen as a growing company.

Ok but more variables in this and a few more assumptions but I will try and explain why i arrive at the figures.

Forgot to say we don't know if they negotiated a better margin for the 40% toll processing of Chrome. It is price sensitive so I don't expect them to tell us.

True but I don't expect it to get hammered but who knows in this crazy world we live in now. To be honest it is all about the gross margin and how close we can get to my range of $30-$35 dollars. Might be a little optimistic 3rd quarter chrome margin will shed more light on it.

Thanks Heroric I did have a suspicion there were multiple profiles. What do you think of my Chrome/pgms forecast for next year?

Wow you got a recommend for just writing copper gotreal so that means there are two of you who clearly didn't read the header You certainly have a devotee out there gotreal.

I will do one for copper separate if you wish gotreal.

I confident they haven't JLP would have said so maybe they are writing the RNS as I type hope they are.

Read the title

It is looking like JLP will produce 2 million tonnes of chrome next year (possibly more).

If we can generate a gross margin of $30-$35/ton (our margin in the second quarter was $23 thanks to Mikie). That will be a chrome gross profit of $60-$70 million for the year.

pgms 42k ounces at $100-$200/ton gross margin(2nd quarter margin $126) is $4.2-$8.4 million gross profit for the year.

Total gross profit based on above figures $65-$78 million.

After converting to sterling and the usual deductions around £30-£40 mill nett profit could be a little more without exact info of deductions hard to put a more accurate figure on it

eps of 1p to 1.33p. pe ratio of 8 gives a sp of between 8p and 10.5p. Therefore the chrome and pgms next year will underpin the sp higher than where we are now.

I don't think there is much downside to the $65 million unless there is a catastrophic event such as massive plant failure or a collapse in chrome price.

There could be some upside to the $78 million as we could produce more Chrome or margins could be greater etc.

Each quarter I will be looking for:

Chrome 500k tons at gross margin of $30-$35

pgms 10.5k ounces at gross margin $100-$200

Just my opinion most of it based on what we are doing or expected to do with an uplift in chrome margin. Looks promising if this is achieved as minimum. Rip it to bits guys I can take it I'm a big boy.

Neither do you and if they had I am sure JLP would be all over it like a rash. RNS would be out so fast you couldn't blink so for now until I see an RNS saying so I will take it as a not yet.

You are a big shareholder here frogkid? Kalan you waiting to get in?

They just don't get it Kalan.

So Tiverton it isn't a fact that JLP will miss this years copper guidance? It isn't a fact that IRH are yet to invest a single penny in the business? It isn't a fact that the copper electrical component has now been delayed for 21 weeks? It isn't a fact that JLP raised money for "general working capital purposes"? There's more but I can't be bothered with it.

Tiverton Who have I been abusive to ? What abuse have I said? Please state and show examples. I can clearly put happdays calling me and imbecile jut for starters.

It was mentioned in the RNS and it didn't state it was for the advancement of specific projects it just said and I quote for "general working capital purposes". They needed it they took advantage of the placing to cover it and raised it.

Some businesses do it with a loan some have enough cash flow to cover and some do a placing JLP chose a placing no big deal they were honest about it don't know why others are trying to make out they didn't have a short term cash flow problem. JLP have clearly acknowledged it and moved on.

Working capital is working capital shuvlin however you want to dress it up and the business didn't have enough in it to cover ongoing and new operations yet to come on line just accept it. What's with the agenda? Is it so unreasonable to you what I have posted about? It's not that contentious happens in business all the time.

There will be a time lag in spending working capital to process the rocks to turn it into copper before they realise any cash coming in from that process.

Jlp realised there may be a short term cash flow problem so raised extra for working capital therefore the cash flow in the business at the time probably wasn't enough to offset this position so would have been temporarily negative.

They have covered this good business decision nothing wrong in accepting this JLP have. Chrome cashflow will improve this.