Charles Jillings, CEO of Utilico, energized by strong economic momentum across Latin America. Watch the video here.
Report at 14.11 today, behind a fire wall on Marketscreener, in the past I have had no reason to doubt reports from this source ... Headed "BP to stay in Russia, stops purchase of Oil & Gas"....
O/T... but an update on my previous post... The two Russian LNG tankers turned away from the Isle of Grain..... Well.... I see from reuters one has found a home in France (docked yesterday to unload). Centrica (the original buyer) will be I reckon circa £100M short now (or storage is even tighter). The French I am sure got a great deal.... the Russians got a bigger price.... the UK..well ..
O/T but saw that 2 x LNG (Russian) ships fully loaded were turned away from the Isle of Grain import terminal today. The gas reflected 12 days UK supply, now as UK has very little storage then this will get tighter. Not only that I will assume that the 2 x LNG loads were purchased on contract and if the gap in supply is to be filled then the payment will have to be at spot. Not only that it looks like the wind will not blow for around a week as a high pressure plants itself over the UK. You can not make it up. Still the LNG loads can now be sold at spot (guessing here)....UK looses ... Russia wins.
I see from Bloomberg that Rosneft may offer (at a significant discount) to take the BP stake. I do think though that BP will bide it's time and once things are less fluid then I am sure they will dispose. The fair value at end 2021 was £14 B, and the latest RNS advised that this would be adjusted at Q1 ( my guess is north of £5B) as a revised fair value. That fair value would be the for sale price (offers over like a house) well that's my take on what will happen. With regards to the £11B currency loss.... reckon the exchequer will take a hit on that as it will impact tax paid (no accountant, but seems reasonable)... So all in all when this comes out of the wash I would put a finger in the air and reckon on a circa single figure £B hit.
Yes I saw the Shell news re selling Russian oil.... quite a discount. The Chinese and Indians will be laughing all the way to the bank. I agree with BP's stance re Rosneft but it does appear that all parties do not play by the same rules.
Back to BP, reckon the POO balances most of this out over the coming year from BP's perspective, just that BP was doing so well, still at least they did not win the New York wind bid (imo too expensive) and can pivot re investment opportunities (oil / gas / renewables) etc) going forward.
Another chance soon to get a good price. Once the Iran deal is done then the SP will drop ( only for a short time I reckon ). This is my next chance to dip my toe in again as they I am sure will rise to above £3.85 soon after. Even the floating oil in Iran + production will take some time to reach the market and will only dent the Russian shortfall. You pays your money you take your choice, but I do see an opportunity soon.
Yikes .... just under a 9 million barrel delta.... the analysts seem to be missing the point that the world is short of oil...The American Petroleum Institute (API) estimated that there was a large surprise draw this week for crude oil of 6.1 million barrels after analysts predicted a build of 2.796 million barrels. Yikes again as Cushing that has a absolute minimum operational capacity of 18 million barrels saw a 1 million-barrel decrease this week. Cushing inventories stood at 23.8 million barrels as of February 18 and declining—down from 60 million barrels at the start of 2021, and down from 37 million barrels at the end of 2021.
Just looking at LEGAL & GENERAL UCITS ETF ETFS LONGER DATED ALL COMMODITIES (CMFP) it is spiking big time. I feel BP / Shell will catch up quickly and it is only short term uncertainty that is holding back prices. The POO might be over $110 tomorrow at this rate. It might be a bit of a roller coaster of a ride re BP SP but I am sure as I can be that the SP is well short of where it should be ( above £3.85 ).
Took a second nibble at £3.55 post US open. That's me for now. Looking at the SP it seems those who shorted early doors are heading for the exit. Cracking price sub £3.85 I think. See the analysts agree with only limited reductions..... and no Sell recommendation's. Well done for all who hold (and added) today. You will be rewarded in time, especially if Putin weaponise's Oil / Gas. Eye's down next for Opec + announcement.
Dipped my toe in at 3.53 , on balance BP is now in a better place. Will wait for the US market to open before I bag any more. I reckon it will go a tad lower, not much though. See Gold is stable. On balance I consider Bernard had no option. Onward and upwards.
Hmmm.... my money is on the Chinese ... might be that more than one smelled a bargain. Yes BP will get out, and it might be that the deal has some more news that we are not expecting ie if more than one suiter was circling then what clinched the deal ?
On balance a good result from BP. I suspect an RNS circa 7am might calibrate holders to sell, hold or add. Reckon the volume will be massive and you never know the proceeds may be used for more buybacks (support the SP 'n all)
No lie in for me tomorrow
From Seeking Alpha...
"Rosneft has made up around 12% of BP's profit before interest and tax and around 10% of BP's free cash flow on average over the last 5 years."
"The impact of potentially losing this income in the future is lower because of BP's improving ability to generate free cash flow internally."
"The market seems to be pricing in the worst-case scenario of complete loss of Rosneft income and dividends with no compensation."
Based on the news we are hearing a lot of holders may be looking at their holdings. Some will I am sure sell, most like me will watch and wait. If the SP is down a lot I am looking to add pre noon and again after the US open (might get a good price). You have to be brave when others are fearful to lift a phrase from Buffett.
Piece on Reuters , Politico source that Rosneft is not in general impacted by sanctions. Would post link but unable to… Always reckoned that energy would not be touched as will cause equal pain.
Thanks for the heads up re silver buffa. After thinking about it I plumped for ishares Physical Silver ETC this AM. A 012% buy sell spread with some of my lad's inheritance (if it goes down I will keep quiet..)...
POO looking very good this PM. Reckon Ukraine will wait until the Olympics / Exercises are over on the 20th more urgently is Iran and potential for problems in that neck of the woods. BP is as safe a place to invest at the moment I think.
Noticing the o/t posts this PM, I thought I would add to the conversation. My neighbour was telling me he had been buying silver (physical) of late. He said a lot of the coin's were not available as there was no stock from who he was buying from. I just had a check on the bullion by post site and it appears that some silver coins and bars are available but lots were not. Gold again showed out of stock on some offerings, just silver was more out of stock than other metal types. Not scientific I know but interesting. The GS guy Jeff Currie was saying of late that all physical commodities were showing a tight market, so not just oil.
Back to on topic I agree that BP above £4 for a time is a good basis for the next leg up.
Oil is very tight.... some might note there is the start of a shortfall. BP SP should keep a northerly direction for the time being.
EIA
Latest Release
Feb 09, 2022
Actual
-4.756M
Forecast
0.369M
Previous
-1.046M
Cushing
Latest Release
Feb 09, 2022
Actual
-2.801M
Previous
-1.173M
SP looking healthy as I type, numbers due from EIA and Cushing late on that may have some impact on the POO.
Seems that on average the analysts updates as pointing to fair value circa £5. Myself I would plump for shy of £5.50 but above £5. Even if Iran was to be let back into the fold the delta between 'black' oil secretly shipped and pump capacity I reckon is circa 1M BOPD. That's only 1% of global demand. Looks like Jeff Currie from Goldman is right that we are in a sweet spot re commodities in general ; oil included.
See that the full Q&A has been made available on the BP site. This make's very encouraging reading... a lot of it but shows of the pedigree of the BP team.
Surprised to see such a difference
Latest Release
Feb 08, 2022
Actual
-2.025M
Forecast
0.675M
Previous
-1.645M
BP should spike up AM tomorrow
Up early doors tomorrow and hoping, well, actually expecting good news from BP.
So, no windfall tax ... for now, Russia seems the main uncertainty and I see that Gazprom is not booking much capacity up to Q4 for gas to Europe. There seems a determination for Europe to buy at spot rates. This has some time to play and imo the only way Nat Gas will go is steadily up. Commentators are saying that the October 22 rise will be hundreds more if the price stays around 200 (circa 190 at the moment).
One thing that has not been said is that if you look at where Ukraine grows all that wheat, it is the area's to the east of Ukraine and one thing perhaps is if Putin has his eye on this valuable resource ? I had a look at 2014 (when Crimea was annexed) and generally markets were stable. Hope Macron can deliver and all this will go away.
Good luck to all holders for tomorrow.
Suspect BP will breakthrough £4 tomorrow.
Big spike in US Nat Gas late on…. Up just under 40% at end at one point up over 50%…. Either a fat finger, hosting web service error or summit else ?