George Frangeskides, Chairman at ALBA, explains why the Pilbara Lithium option ‘was too good to miss’. Watch the video here.
Worth a post.
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Aramco-Cant-Add-Oil-Production-Capacity-Faster-Than-Promised.html
Opec + meeting next week. I suspect oil will not be gushing and compliance will have dropped again ( maybe a lot this time, what with others having local difficulties and maintenance ) all at the same time a uptick in aviation and US driving. There is talk of diesel in short supply. POO may go higher than the demand destruction point of $125 if all this market chatter germinates ; eyes down on the oilers for more gains imo.
Believe that an announcement will be made on Thursday ( day after release of Partygate report ).... well that's a surprise. Good announcement this AM from BP re Hydrogen hub... my money is that we will not see a windfall tax, but I do think the govt will derive some additional revenue from the extraction and generation sector, and may include those who did well out of Corvid.... ie supermarkets. BP looking good for the next leg up, excellent value up to £5 imo.
As we are half way through the quarter I see that RMM has already earned BP an additional $1B assuming RMM rates remain at the current rate that is an additional $2B. POO is still in the sweet spot and as long as $125 is not breached then no demand destruction will not occur ( GS main guy Jeff Currie ).... so looking good for a divi increase and another bumper buyback announcement. The rate of buyback is sucking out lots of shares and the SP will only climb from here.... imo...
Russian Gas Flows To Europe Via Ukraine To Stop Wednesday according to reports this PM.....
Circa £4.25 was not around for long I see..... I see a drop sub £4 and I have a limit buy in place for a top up as that would be a great price. On balance the SP is at least some 20% undervalued at these prices, imo we are just seeing the market at play; with the US looking for a .75 basis point rise in June the market are a little jittery. I think the £ will drop to sub $1.2 and as BP have an excellent debt 'book' there is one less thing to worry about. BTW what a great set of results and the refining margin for Q2 as another poster has mentioned will add another slug to the top line. Circa $100 oil is a sweet spot, long may it continue.
More than happy to get the EPS too low. By my reckoning the delta was in the main a stunning trading gain (not disclosed) and convenience stores having a cracking period. Q2 driver with imo be RMM ; refining margins will remain high for some time. One point that was picked up on by another poster was BL being very coy when asked by Bloomberg re Rosneft disposal. His body language and answer led me to believe that BP have engagement on the disposal of Rosneft. Like I said before BP is in a 'sweet spot' re EPS and Q2 trading is looking good to date. About time BP is starting to perk up and a run up to £4.25 is likely.... I cannot see £5 this year though high £4's is possible given where we are today. Shell next so eyes down for more pointer's.
Global Refining Marker Margin ... each $1 = $450M per annum
Q2 34.5.... to date
Q1 18.9
Q4 15.1
Refining margins are high and imo will go much higher. You can see from the data released by BP this qtr's margin to date is nearly double that of Q1. Talk of diesel supply problems down the line which might equate to £2 / ltr at the pumps. I have for some time thought BP to be in the 'sweet spot' re financials (ex Rosneft). Suspect unless BP have made progress re sale of Rosneft then we will get zip other than ref to statement some weeks ago. Me I think the Indians will purchase, and it will be cheaper now than in a years time. I am still of the view that BP might only get back single figure $B but that is a lot better than nowt.
Looking tomorrow AM for ADR EPS at $1.47 (analysts have average of $1.32 ( low $1 high $1.52) no gotcha's then a blue day for BP I think. No horlick's tonight as up with the birds at 6.30am for the statement at 7am.
Oh, and yes my last post was a typo £3.75 buy not a £2.75 buy (I wish). Removed my limit buy instructions until the dust settles in a weeks time. Onwards and upwards as I see it..
Surprised re drop this AM. 2.75 limit small buy triggered. Circa $100 oil is good for oilers… a sweet spot.
Many a scribe of late have put pen to paper in the press and on-line analysts input too. Demand destruction will start to happen at a point. Me, I am in the circa $150 price point. @ circa $100 Brent I see as a sweet spot as demand will increase and BP will prosper. So perhaps the POO will at some point have drag on demand but now, we are in just the right place. I feel the BP SP true value ( assuming no gotcha's early May ) is between £4.50 and £5.00. See that the EU are spouting about Russia oil being cut off at some point, hot air if you ask me. The elephant in the room is the withdrawal of investment and tech as Russia production is dropping like a stone and the integrity of the reservoir's tapped into may be compromised in the long term. We live in interesting times, one of my siblings commented on coining it in re my holdings. I reminded her that the art of investing was not to loose and gains were only a product of a no loose strategy.
Pleasantly surprised to see the RMM spike up from the weekly update. An extra $1B + per qtr if these levels are maintained. Good news oil is staying at these levels as there should be little demand destruction based on price. A thumbs up from me for the oil release from Biden et al. If China perks up then demand will only increase, supply is the problem and as Russia seems to be limiting investment this will cause another inflationary price spike down the road. I remember the 70’s and 80’s inflation it was a rocky time. Nothing stops me from believing the UK will see double digit CPI later in the year. BP / Oilers are a safe haven… imo.
Murray Auchincloss in the most recent Q&A, copy below an extract to a response to GS in a question on buybacks..
"As far as limitations on share buybacks, there will be market limitations. We’re still learning about that, about what’s possible. Of course, it depends on how fast the share price appreciates as well, that creates limitations in itself. We’ve already done $0.5 billion of buybacks this quarter for employee offsets in January, so that's behind us. We’ll do $1.5 billion by the results date. That's carefully worded, because sometimes it's a little bit tricky to do it inside the quarter."
Perhaps they have completed the Q1 buyback as I note $1.592B have already been purchased. A bit of sophistry if you ask me, but perhaps no more buybacks until Q2 though overall debt will have taken a 'dive'.
The numbers GS are looking at will in most cases be the one's that are issued by BP.
https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/investors/results-and-reporting/trading-conditions-update.html
This shows that between Q1 2021 and Q1 2022 BP made an additional $19.115 Billion
Oil has increased by $40.99 x $340 is $13.94B
Refining has increased by $10 x $440 is $4.5B
Henry Hub Gas increased by 2.25 (30M / 0.1) is $675M
Tin hat time soon as Russia seems determined to price commodities in Rouble's. The West's plans to move from Russia commodities in a controlled manner will be challenged by the moves this week. BP / oilers (commodities in general) should be as safe a place at this time and moving forward. I suspect there are lots of people have not idea how difficult thing's are going to get.
Re BL's visit to India, I suspect there was some chat around Rosneft and if the sale docs had been prepared for release. My money is still on an Indian company with a asset swap / cash transaction with BP taking a singe figure $B hit. All guess work but the jigsaw pieces are out there.
Evening BPinvestor, no I have qualified for a divided just raided the savings to buy some shares (reckon a good price sub £3.70) and will repay on receipt of divided ( the supreme commander should not notice).... or I will have to do penance in the allotment...
My limit buy just kicked in. Happy with sub £3.70. I always find the price ticks up when divi is paid so I went early and will bank the divi. Time will tell if it was a good move, over time it works for me. POO holding strong and BP may average close to $100 Brent Qtr 1 looking at the latest update last Friday.
Just a thought but I thought BP had quite a few treasury shares looking at the last financial report. Perhaps given the situation re Rosneft then the final $500M could be drawn down and cancelled. Once the Qtr1 report is issued I expect buybacks to recommence (with an increase in divi ). Re Rosneft disposal my money is on an Indian outfit (say Reliance) offering an asset swap sure BP will loose out but maybe single figure $B. All will come clear come early May.
I think that the oil price's impact regards to Iran has changed as Russia has placed demands on the agreement (linked with sanction's). Ironically Iran will be more than upset as China would I expect to be drawn to heavily discounted Russian crude (lots of it) and not as much to discounted Iran crude. Iran missed an opportunity weeks ago and now, not only do they not get a deal with sanctions lifted, but the market for their oil just got a lot tougher. On balance I do think the POO will remain high, Goldman Sachs have advised that the average of $135 for 2022. So not all bad for BP and I would expect the pricer to recover from here.
Yes, I was perplexed by the stop at 300 M shares ( seems an instruction as a round number ).
I would surmise that BP need the cash, what for ; well there is BP Libya ( see they are very active on the ground now). Perhaps the new Russia ? Or bid for the IGAS plot's in the Bowland area.... Shale gas ?
The real biggi is the Qtr 1 update in early May as if the share holders are not buttered up with reward ( SP lift / Divi increase / Buybacks ) then the likes of Exxon / Chevron will I am sure having a good look.I have noted the rise of the US majors of late. They have lots of money slushing around..If holder's are hacked off then a cheeky £5 + bid might get some traction.
Time will tell, eyes down in early May.
I saw a report that 30% of UK Diesel is supplied by Russia. Suspect the filling stations will be busy once the papers report this fact. I expect as well that the service stations should so well so on topic BP should benefit.