We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
An initial exploration well called Ephesus is planned for 2023. Spud May time to drill time 80 days so August time we should have some news. This is a first drill on a 5 Billion Barrel prospect within two exploration licences (ELs) in the West and East Orphan Basins. Located between 343 and 496 kilometres offshore Newfoundland and Labrador.
Sea floor surveys completed 2022... yes 5 Billion barrel prospect !! With all the North Sea experience BP well placed on this one if it is a success. Throwing lots of money at it so the information at hand must be good....
Good news re Goldman. I see them as one of the more sensible players. Jeff Currie speaks a lot of sense.
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Ecuador-Calls-Force-Majeure-On-Almost-All-Of-Its-Oil-Production.html
As Ecuador produces around 500K BOPD then this is the equivalent to the Russia cut from 1/3
Looks like all that floating oil will be drawn down quicker than anticipated. Should be good for the traders of oil (BP et al). Also see Freeport is back up and running, again BP trading will be taking advantage of the US Nat Gas movement.
A little help to the cost of debt for BP this afternoon.
London, February 24, 2023 -- Moody's Investors Service (Moody's) has today changed the outlook to positive from stable for BP p.l.c.
Full resume / rational behind a paywall..
I believe the 550 pivot is a good place to be and expect the POO to rise from here. Lots in the know see it on an upwards trajectory to year end which will only help the bottom line. Not the stellar figures of the previous year but enough imo to maintain the momentum above £6 for mid year.
Have a good weekend all
Looking to buy a few this AM. Usually I find mid morning the best time once things have settled down. I think a 550 pivot is the correct call until the world realises it is short of oil around May time reading the recent press articles around soaring demand and constrained production.
My view is that BP will do whatever is in the best interests of the company. Reading the bottom of the Q&A I see that BL and the board are off to the states for briefing's re results. Perhaps a chance for a 'chin way' with industry players.
Reading the results in full I was struck with the small amount of narrative towards Wind and Solar. Indeed Solar is now self funding (in my book no more slugs of money ). Perhaps that is why they sold the two solar investments some months ago ? All the money is going into Chargers / Convenience and Gas recovery (seems to make a lot of margin from this one).
So renewables are more and more being looked through the lense of 'margin' about time too imo. All in all a great pivot to the benefit of the SP and us the share holders. Will the SP take a breather... probably. Will it be higher at year end..... I would hope so. All in all BP is on a better track now and we should all benefit.
Already positive, the research from UBS and its analyst Henri Patricot still consider the stock as a Buy opportunity. The target price has been raised to GBX 630 from GBX 535.
Looks like all analysts are upping their targets. All positive. Xdiv today... I bet there are some who sold pre divi looking to get back in. I was one as I took a bird in the hand approach for my capital gains allowance, sub 550 for me otherwise I will find another safe home.
fwiw I still think Exxon if any would take a peep at BP. Door closing fast though.
Just did a quick 'back of a *** packet' calculation regards to buybacks and my reckoning an average of circa 10M share per trading day. Circa 10 weeks less B/H's and circa $3B. Reading the year end presentation I looked at the estimates for EBITA etc by 2030 and thought wow they are big numbers. I appreciate its a pitch but I can see why the SP catapulted northwards last week.....
More positive news for the SP
Great results from Acker BP reported this AM. BP owns 30%
Reported today that Exxon unveils new trading division to compete with BP and Shell. They just need to staff it… reported in oilprice today. Perhaps they might run the slide-rule over BP. Interesting times.
Ah… you never stop learning, that makes sense meoryou … thanks
You are correct LTI it was the wife.
Now …. Bet some of you did not read the buyback RNS…. I make it $3.425 Billion. Strange that day one buybacks abruptly stopped midday… wonder why as no buybacks yesterday. Is summit going on here ?
I got round the 12K rule by gifting shares. The gain was carried forward with the share gift …. It only took a week to transfer. My own fault as I was lazy not to use my ISA allowance in full in past years. Mr Hunt is not popular with me.
There has been for some time a delta in valuation between SHEL and BP. My view is that as BP has tapped the rudder toward fossil fuels this delta should go away. My take is BP just catching up and I reckon we are still some way off alignment of true value.
BP I thought were signaling the rebalance when disposing of the two parcels of Solar some weeks ago. Must admit to be hoping at the time for this outcome. The optics from next weeks results should hopefully be reassuring to all.
From Oil Price .....
The world will need 4-6 million bpd of new supply just to offset the natural decline at maturing oilfields globally, Nasser told Bloomberg. Spare capacity is just 2 million barrels per day (bpd) currently, and it is likely to shrink as China reopens..... so says the head of Saudi oil giant Aramco. He expects the Chinese reopening and a pick-up in jet fuel demand to lead to a rebound in global oil demand this year, Amin Nasser, the CEO of the world’s biggest oil firm, told Bloomberg in an interview published on Wednesday.
Nasser reiterated the long-held view of Saudi Arabia and many analysts that the underinvestment in the industry in the past few years will come back to haunt the market.
Aramco’s upbeat outlook on global demand this year is also shared by OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA).
BP should do well as it produces lots of aviation fuel...Also just filled up as I suspect pump prices will be on the rise soon.
Thanks for the link spigots. The article is probably the most damming one I have read for some time with regards to the US mismanagement of the SPR under Biden. I am reminded of when Brown sold off the Gold at a ridiculous price though this is many times more serious (for the US). Strategic, well it's a strategic blunder if you ask me; selling off the best grades of oil leaving behind the most difficult mix to refine. Then naively thinking the market will dance to the tune and give back 'premium' oil at a pre-set price, king canute had nothing on this lot. The thing is the deed is done and 220 MBO are gone (some probably sitting in China's vast SPR). I do think the US SPR will never be refilled unless prices take a real tumble which imo is very unlikely. OPEC+ will want to apply the inflation premium to the POO and even now big oil US execs are openly saying in the media that demand destruction will only happen at $150. China is reopening and the Russia Oil / Products cap will no doubt take output from the market. Reports that OPEC's headroom for increased production is limited, the best US shale acreage has been drilled and investment in oil is woefully low.
Electric vehicles, kings clothes if you ask me. Shortage of charging points, more expensive than unleaded and the second hand electric market down circa 20% this year. Hydrogen seems a better bet, though the production costs need to reduce. All in all a bit of a dogs dinner which may see Jeff Currie from GS proved right with commodity stock's seeing a 30% uplift in 2023. Will we see £6.50 this year.... well both GS and Barclays have £6.90 and £7.00 price targets in place and the thing is they know a damm lot more about what will happen than I do.
All in all oilers are still a strong buy in my book.
2022 saw a $500M increase in early Jan to cover off dilution due to the bonus pool. If this was to happen this year my guess is next Monday , the 9th. Great price for buybacks today, only hoping a few more are bought back than yesterday.
No reason to suspect this is not a buy, and a big one at that. You would have thought they would a 'drip' cost average. Price paid just shy of £4.88, someone getting in before year end perhaps.... or summit is about to announced. Either way it is a thumbs up for BP.
Looking at the press it appears that Putin will issue a decree by the time the markets open on the 28th. The article from Reuters mentioned a reduction of circa 700K BOPD. I am sure Putin would want to get noticed so he might ratchet up the response to the oil price cap. I did not realise that all pipelined oil to EU members such as Poland was exempt, if that is true it is silly as if the EU can make the rules Russia will abide by them ?... duh! I really think the POO will be all over the place for the next couple of months, and the diesel and unleaded will rise (on top of the rumered re-establised fuel escalator in the Spring). As a consequence the price of BP shares will be up more that existing estimates of circa £5.50. One thing I am pretty sure of is that Biden will make a loss once the SPR is refilled and it will cost me well over £100 to fill the car. All the best for BP holders into 2023, and you never know over £6 might be achieved.