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Usually mid afternoon UK time.... Looking at Twitter there is a report of 1.8MBO reduction being discussed.
API numbers very positive for oilers, it seems to me that there is no demand destruction and at some point the SPR release's will end (I expect very soon) as the US stocks will be at the 1980's levels. OPEC reporting tomorrow, Reuters reporting that possible 1MBO + reduction. Shale still over 1MBO less than pre pandemic as constraints in production.
The only negative was the outgoing Shell lead pointing to additional taxes. Reminds me of the time I voted for an increase in subs when I was due to leave a club (on age grounds).
Goldman / Barc both on £7, perhaps not this year but assuming no gotcha's in Q3 I would expect £5+ is very probable Q4 22. What is there not to like with oilers these days.
Before I forget I looked at the Q3 numbers and with a currency depreciation of circa 12% I would expect the numbers reported to be closer (though less) that Q2 than Q1. Perhaps a $3B additional buyback announcement ?
https://www.ft.com/content/bee3f1c7-4b7b-432b-ad35-6f506d173516
I reckon 1MBO drop with the Saudi's adding an additional 200K on top.
Should help the SP.
Well I suppose they could not bring themselves to to an about turn..... just a half turn for now. You have to smile. Alex Hamer I suspect will pivot again prior to year end to an outright buy. A good read though and lots on BP.
https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/news/2022/09/01/shell-and-bp-time-for-a-rethink-please/
The cap is expected to be introduced at the same time as planned EU embargoes on Russian oil kick in – on 5 December for crude and 5 February 2023 for refined products, such as diesel. The level of the cap is still being discussed. Russia has made it clear that any nation participating in the cap will receive zero crude and zero refined products. You add this to the Nat Gas situation and it is clear difficult times are ahead.
Stocking will sure increase in this new geopolitical environment and prices will respond. An Iran deal I feel is slipping away and Libya is volatile whilst US rig count is reducing. As a shareholder I feel that to have 'skin in the game' is critical for protection to a balanced investment portfolio. BP remains a 'strong buy' for me.
BBC reporting that Russia won't reopen key European gas line as planned
I always put a 'Strong Buy' when I post as I still maintain the view that sub £5.20 BP is a 'Strong Buy' , anyway I reckon 'the worm (BP SP)' is about to turn upwards ( as we approach SHELL results in a couple of weeks... pointer to BP the following week).
My reckoning is £3.90 eop tomorrow with a peep above £4 by the end of week.
POO is being kept down with the SPR release (1 MBO per day) which in October will end. I don't think OPEC will pump much more as the POO has dropped 20% in a month... why should they. Platitudes and soothing words I'm sure but extra barrels nah... or neit (russian for no) :-) I do reckon though that oil will pop up to circa $150 back end of 2022. Roll on the increase in divi of I hope of around 5p / qtr at the next update. Well I can only hope.
Even Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s biggest producer and the world’s top crude oil exporter, pumped more than 100,000 bpd below its quota last month. Saudi Arabia’s target for June was 10.663 million bpd. I feel the oil market has a 'kings clothes' syndrome, where analysts are believing what they are told rather what all can see. The world is short of oil, gas and refined products.
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/US-Could-Release-Even-more-Oil-From-Strategic-Stockpiles.html
Well if this comes to pass then OPEC will be mightily happy as at some point (very soon) the SPR releases will need to cease (I reckon Q1 23 at the latest). Looks like Biden is rolling the dice for the last time re visit to the Saudi's as OPEC + being a group will be nice and happy with stocks running down as this will give them more leverage. Not only that the pause in the POO due to this SPR release (circa $100 - $120 for some time) will help bake in the new prices of fuel to the general populous. Myself I see just as many cars on the road now and most fuel is high £1.90's .....
GS reckon on $140 now for Brent Q4 22. This may be tempered by additional SPR releases but as I say allows pep's to get used to the new price point for fuel derived from oil.
Reading across the boards I see some poster's reckoning on $10B Q2 profit as RMM has rocketed over the Qtr. I agree with some that BL should drip in additional buybacks post 30/6 prior to results.
So my takeaway from all of these shenanigans is that the current price is a 'strong buy' and those who are long will see a good reward prior to year end. My target is north of £5 given that RMM / POO is not going to drop anytime soon.... imho... roll on the results though for now, back to the allotment to check on my veg.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/energy/the-us-is-depleting-its-strategic-petroleum-reserve-faster-than-it-looks/2022/06/17/3b899c40-ee04-11ec-9f90-79df1fb28296_story.html
A very good analysis.....
From Reuters
"Consistent with the broader market pre-occupation with rates and inflation, the oil market narrative may now turn to focus more on affordability, rather than on supply," Investec head of commodities Callum Macpherson told Reuters.
Market sentiment also has been hit with criticism from the Biden administration; recent reports said the White House was considering limits on oil product exports.
Me, I think this is an overreaction and BP having bought 10M shares today should help. I wonder if BL is tempted to throw some more cash at buybacks post 30/6 (qtr2 end) and prior to the results in early Aug.... I would.
I agree on the subject header, the weekly Trading Conditions report just issued shows a very healthy cash flow so ....... in for a double divi at £3.85... Its only the kid's inheritance. I must remember next time to clock the next triple whitching in September.
Still think we will see above £5 this year. Anyway just forward bought with my divi payment at just shy of £4.07. See that the BOE has raised by .25 ; with the US being more agressive (0.75) which should put pressure on the £ which should be positive for $ earners. I agree with posters that Q2 results should be stunning; the problem will be I think the communication's , still they are paid enough to do a good job on this front.
Aye, with the hoped for increase in divi (and SP rise into the fall) we should so ok this year. One statistic that I came across of late that oilers (energy) value was around 5% (was 3%) of the S&P, yet earnings were in excess of 9% of the S&P total... Looks as if capital re-allocation will fill the gap soon as buybacks are the driver at the moment.... all positive for a healthy rise in energy stock price's.
I reckon the 16th / 17th will be the best time. I suspect lots of folks will be waiting for an opportunity given the likely qtr2 figures (and run up). In the past the SP goes up around divi payment date so as to catch any re-investment at a healthy price. So I will be using my divi monies a week early again; it has worked in the past, though it is bound to fail now and then. BP though is making very good profits in all area's (well trading is not reported so this is a bit of an unknown). I am pretty sure the divi will be increased greater than has been flagged (I reckon on 20%). The reason for my thought on this is that most analysts have POO circa $90 -$115 in 2023 so BP can afford this. Also I think buybacks will increase substantially from the $2.5B in qtr 1. Both of these actions will support over a SP of over £5 imo. So, all in all not a bad share to be in at the mo. One more thing that struck me was the pro rata refining BP does compared to Shell, a lot more when looking at the business value of each co. Refining just this qtr is on track to add an addtional $2.5B to BP's bottom line and POO is keeping below $125 so demand destruction should not show itself. Looks to me like all long should have a half decent ride up in the remainder of 2022.
I see the press is cottoning on to the fact that the main bottleneck is in refining. The prices of refined products are defined by the market and over the last qtr margins have doubled. I suspect this will increase to all time high's. As BP reports the numbers weekly all can see exactly the figures which will be embedded in Qtr 2 results. As of 31/5 the excess for the qtr alone was in excess of $2 Billion. Eyes down at 3.30pm today when the numbers as of 8/6 are released. I agree with posters as to the issue is where best to place this good harvest. I also agree on an affordable increase on the dividend with debt and buyback being the main beneficiaries. The sun is shining and the oilers are making hay and fixing the roof. This is the market in action and we will have ups and downs over time. Today we are up, in the years to come we will find a down or too I am sure. The difference though is that we will have a pretty good roof to support us all. Onward and upwards.
I read that Lukoil exec is saying Russia should reduce output by 30%. Given the sanctions in oil technology & parts Russian production will loose 3 MBO second half 2022, they have shut in circa 1 MBO as of end April. This all points to a very strong oil revenue for BP et al going forward. The SP is only going one way imo. The trick is to find the likely pivot point in price though I do think this is over a year away. Slightly off topic but I read that the new 10BCM pipeline for Nat Gas connecting Poland to Norway will be commissioned this year. This additional demand will impact on the amount Norway can ship to the UK. This is a worry for winter gas prices. I do think the world economy is in for a rocky ride. The biggest worry for me is that Russia limits grain exports to Africa which may cause a wave of refugees next year. Hydrocarbons and food are what the world depends on. Where's that buckle of mine ?
Did anyone else notice that business / industrials got zip today. BP should imo be ok with this and I would not expect an impact on a rise of the SP to £5. One thing that I did note was that this injection of cash was in the majority borrowed and was inflationary. Capital Economics reckon the BOE will need to raise rates to 3% next year now. BP will take this in their stride and I would not expect any sort of statement other than a cracking Q2 set of results bolstered by refining margin.